Melbourne Cup 2017 – A win for an International Horse this year?
With each Melbourne Cup, more pieces of conventional Aussie wisdom and mythology are steamrolled by the unrelenting foreign invasion of horses coming to win one of the biggest single-race purses in the world. From the moment Damien Oliver famously rode Media Puzzle to victory in 2002, Aussie punters have warmed to the international horses and the internationals are beginning to take the cup home with them on a more regular basis.
Why International Horses are winning more often
Surprisingly, there are very few races run over the Melbourne Cup distance 3200m run in Australia each year. Yearly, only 1 or 2 races in each state are over the 3200m distance. Consequently, Australia’s best horses are trained to win over the shorter distances. Australia’s recent beloved turf champions are all sprinters like Winx and Black Caviar.
Where the Internationals Come From
Recently, the winners of the Melbourne Cup have come from Europe. What is so good about them? They are trained to stay and they are weighted extremely fairly (some might even say they are underweighted as the local handicappers are not fully aware of their form). Look for horses that have placed over the distance or further in the last six months when checking the form.
The Godolphin Stables from the United Arab Emirates keep bringing their very best horses year-after-year and it is only a matter of time until they win the big one.
Japanese horses adapt well to Australian conditions and generally acclimatise much better than European horses to Australian conditions given the shorter travel time. All runners from Japan should always be given very careful consideration.
Picking the Melbourne Cup is not an exact science and I like a bit of value. That’s why I like Irish horse, Max Dynamite. Currently at $19 with Centrebet (the best odds currently on the market – the only thing I do know for sure!) and he’s won over the distance and beyond. He’ll probably start shorter, particularly if the fickle Melbourne weather turns wet. Current forecast for Melbourne is 13 degrees and cloudy. Time to do a rain dance!