NBA 2024-25 MVP Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

James Salmon
By: James Salmon
08/01/2025
NBA Tips, Predictions & News
NBA MVP Winner
NBA 2024-25 MVP Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The MVP Award is the most coveted individual accolade in the NBA regular season, perhaps only the Finals MVP outstripping it overall – though that probably depends on who you ask. Regardless of how you rank those two, it’s a significant award and one that elevates the historical standing of whoever wins it. For much of history, the MVP was won virtually exclusively by American players, but the influx of international talent has been swift and for years now, that talent has had exclusive ownership of the award. In 2019, Giannis Antetokounmpo became just the fifth international player to win it in over 60 years of history, and that kickstarted a run of six consecutive MVPs which went to players from outside of the United States – three to Nikola Jokic, two to Giannis and one to Joel Embiid.

As there has been for most of the season, there is a very clear number one and number two in the MVP voting – and number three too, really, though he is now a long way back. Realistically it appears to be a race in two, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander apparently the man to beat and Nikola Jokic the only one with a realistic chance of doing that. So will SGA be crowned the best in the regular season for the first time, will the Joker put himself into increasingly rarefied air with a fourth MVP win, or will someone else come from the clouds to cause a massive upset? Take a look below at our preview of the two favourites and the pack trying, in vain, to chase them down.

2025-25 NBA MVP Odds

Favourites to win the 2025-25 NBA MVP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder)

Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is being chased by an extremely fast pursuant in Nikola Jokic, but so consistently and impressively is he delivering that he’s only continued to shorten in the MVP betting. It’s easy to see why. As consistent as anyone in the league at getting to right around 32 points, he put up 54 on the Jazz in late January and backed it up a week later with 52 against the Warriors, surrounding those games with his typical high-20 to low-30 efforts on very good efficiency. For the season he now averages 32.5 points on 53.3% shooting in just 34.1 minutes, and is also dishing out a solid 6.0 assists and 2.0 steals – the latter of which has him second in the league to only the Great Barrier Thief, Dyson Daniels.

On paper, SGA’s stats are not as gaudy as Jokic, but with the Thunder sitting six games clear atop the Western Conference and their slippery guard the primary reason why, his favouritism is understandable. But boy oh boy is he getting short. His odds have come in for a reason and at sub-$1.20 now there is cause to think that this race is a lost cause for the chasers, and that may well be the case – certainly the narrative is that he has one hand on the trophy, and as automatic and durable as he is, it’s hard to imagine anything changing too dramatically for him. But Jokic is having one of the greatest offensive seasons in NBA history, and he could be just a couple of huge performances – we’re talking 40-point triple-doubles, of which he is more than capable – away from seeing the gap between the two close significantly. Gilgeous-Alexander is at the point now where he should certainly be odds-on favourite to win the MVP, but with months still left in the season, he is too short to justify punting on.

Bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win the MVP @ $1.81 with Unibet

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)

Denver NuggetsAlready Nikola Jokic could very easily claim that he’s an MVP short of where he deserves to be, which is saying quite something given that he already has three of them locked away in his trophy cabinet. But after losing out in a tight race to Joel Embiid in 2023, the Serbian went on to lead his Nuggets to their first ever championship and then backed it up by winning the MVP relatively comfortably last season. This season, he is probably playing better than he ever has before – he has career-highs in points, three-point percentage and assists, and his second-highest rebounding numbers, all of which gives him some pretty absurd averages. More than halfway into the season, Jokic is averaging 29.5 points while shooting 57.1% from the field and a ridiculous 46.6% from long range, 12.9 rebounds, 10.3 assists and 1.8 steals.
 
Those numbers would be MVP worthy most seasons in league history and an argument could very well be made that they are this season too, but a big gap between the Nuggets and Thunder has given SGA the upper hand. But while Jokic’s odds have blown out a bit in recent times with a couple of huge performances from Gilgeous-Alexander, this race is far from over. OKC is certainly a better team than the Nuggets and will finish ahead of them, but Denver has been playing reasonably well for a while now and could very easily work their way up to second in the West by season’s end. The primary criticism of Jokic relative to SGA is that he’s by no means a dominant defensive anchor while SGA is an excellent defensive guard, but a 30-point triple-double average on elite shooting percentages is nothing to sneeze at. Jokic has been the best player in the league for a number of years now and is quietly going about establishing himself as one of the greatest players in history without seeming to care about it all that much, and more than anyone in the league he has the capacity to play at basically whatever level he wants. There is every chance that he boosts his numbers even further as the season wears on, particularly if the Nuggets are embroiled in a tight battle for high seeds, and if he does that and his team ends up with well over 50 wins, he will be hard to ignore.

Bet on Nikola Jokic to win the MVP @ $4.00 with Unibet

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)

Milwaukee Bucks
There has been a big gap between the top two and the rest throughout the course of this season, and that gap has ballooned out enormously in the lead-up to the All-Star break. Giannis Antetokounmpo, the nominal third candidate in this season’s MVP race for months now, has ballooned out to close to triple-figure odds, which given how well he has played this season, is testament to the production of the above two names. The two-time MVP has continued to produce at a very consistent level since winning those two MVPs back to back, and has only failed to add a third to his trophy cabinet because of the elite performances of others, namely Nikola Jokic. This season looks likely to be no different.

A strong case can be made that Giannis is playing as well as he ever has this season. Jump shooting has always been his Achilles heel and his outside shot remains a weakness, but he has become a capable mid-range scorer now, adding to his unmatched ability to get to the rim. That has led him to a 31.8-point average at the time of writing on an enormous 60.8% shooting from the field, while he’s also grabbing 12.2 boards and dishing out 5.9 assists per game. He’s also one of the best defenders in the business, as he has been for a long time, and this two-way production makes him more than worthy of MVP discussion. Unfortunately, his Bucks continue to be up and down like a yoyo, which probably puts him even further away from the above two names, but still – they could easily pull it together post All-Star break and are very capable of finishing 4th in the East, if not getting close to the Knicks in 3rd, and Giannis will be the primary reason why. The Greek Freak has every reason to feel aggrieved at the lack of genuine consideration he seems to be getting for this award and his $81 odds are incredibly long for someone having as good a season as he is, but SGA and Jokic have just been that good. Giannis will almost certainly not add to his MVP collection this season, but as far as the rank outsiders go he’s definitely not your worst option.

Bet on Giannis Antetokounmpo to win the MVP @ $81.00 with Unibet

Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics)

Boston CelticsFrom a statistical perspective, Jayson Tatum has had better seasons than this one. But the 2024-25 incarnation of the Celtics star may well be the best version of him yet. Tatum’s numbers are very similar to what they were last season, when he willingly took on a very slightly reduced role to accommodate the wealth of offensive talent on his team. He’s putting up 26.8 points per game on solid shooting numbers – albeit not close to the level of the above three players – while also grabbing 8.8 rebounds and a career-high 5.7 assists. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers to the extent of in particular Nikola Jokic, but Tatum is the best player on perhaps the best team in the business and is doing exactly what he needs to do as they chase a second consecutive NBA championship.

As has been the case for a few years though, while Tatum is certainly a top ten player in the league, no one aside from the most one-eyed Bostonians would argue that he is in the same conversation as the likes of Jokic, SGA, Giannis or even Luka Doncic. While the make-up of his team means that Tatum will never have as high a usage rate as those guys, that notwithstanding he’s still not as capable a scorer both in volume or efficiency, nor is facilitating a standout feature of his game. Neither he nor the Celtics should really care – he is a brilliant player doing exactly what they need to do in their ultimate goal. As far as MVP chances go, however, he could be at $1 million to one and wouldn’t be worth betting on.

Bet on Jayson Tatum to win the MVP @ $251.00 with Unibet

NBA MVP Second Tier Contenders

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)

San Antonio SpursIt’s frightening to imagine just how good Victor Wembanyama will one day be. Already, he is a dominant force in the league, and very possibly a top five player – that’s at the age of just 21 and with only a season-and-a-half in the NBA under his belt. His improvement in that time has been dramatic – and he was already pretty good to start – and as we near the All-Star break, he is averaging 24.6 points on decent shooting (though there is plenty of improvement in that area likely to come), 10.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals and a ridiculous 3.9 blocks – for context, in second for blocks per game is Walker Kessler with a comparatively measly 2.3.

Wembanyama is already a really imposing presence at the offensive end of the floor, though his offensive production alone wouldn’t have him rated nearly as highly. Combined with the fact that he is by far the most influential defender in the league, however, and you have one of the most impactful overall players going around. The Spurs have gradually accumulated a few decent players and the addition of De’Aaron Fox just prior to the trade deadline will take them up another level or two, but the team as it’s been constructed for the first few months of the season would be one of the worst in the league without Wemby. With him, they are a playoff contender in the Western Conference. His team is not as good as the genuine MVP contenders nor are his numbers – at least offensively – as impressive, so while he will very possibly be winning multiple MVPs in the future, this season is probably a little too soon. His defensive dominance, however, as well as the fact that it’s very feasible for him to dramatically increase his numbers over the remainder of the regular season, means there could certainly be some voters who rate him a lot more highly than the average punter. At extremely long odds, his ceiling makes him a better bet than someone like Tatum.

Bet on Victor Wembanyama to win the MVP @ $251.00 with Unibet

Anthony Davis (Dallas Mavericks)

If Anthony Davis were to win this season’s MVP, he would go into the record books as the first player to ever do that playing for two different teams in the same season. That is, of course, a rank long shot, but hey – who knows what kind of fire being traded mid-season seemingly out of the blue will light in him. The perennially injured former Laker had one of the most consistent seasons of his career in 2023-24, and lo and behold, not being injured appeared to have paid dividends. He flew out of the blocks this season and was one of the most dominant players in the league over the first few weeks, establishing himself as a bonafide MVP contender in that time. It didn’t really last – not that he started playing badly, but the 40-point 15-rebound efforts so prevalent early in the season have been a little fewer and further between for some time now, and he’s gone from a genuine MVP candidate to a very long outsider as a result.

He did, however, put up a 42-point, 23-rebound performance against the Hornets late in January, and as it turned out that was the last full game he played as a Laker. Perhaps the biggest trade in NBA history saw him sent to Dallas just before the All-Star break, and he will now play out the remainder of the season alongside the likes of Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson instead of LeBron James and Austin Reaves. In the Laker-portion of his season, Davis averaged 25.7 points on 52.8% shooting, 11.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.1 blocks – great numbers, but not really enough to win the MVP. To get close, he’ll need to be the best player in the league in his first 30 games as a Maverick, which it’s safe to say is unlikely. Regardless, he’s had a great season, and one that he nor the NBA will not be forgetting anytime soon.

Bet on Anthony Davis to win the MVP @ $501.00 with Unibet

LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers)

Los Angeles LakersThe MVP discussion is not typically the domain of 40-year-olds, but here we are. Realistically, of course, LeBron James is at $501 to win it for a reason, but even the fact that he is still in the conversation to be a top-ten player is remarkable enough. The leading points scorer in NBA history has seen his points-per-game drop once again this season, something it’s done every year since he averaged 30.3 in 2021-22, but it’s hardly been a notable drop-off. His 24.1 points a night are still coming at an impressive clip – 51.4% from the field and 38.1% from long range – while he’s also grabbing 7.6 rebounds per game and 9.1 assists – the latter of which is, incredibly, the second highest number of his illustrious career.

LeBron had obviously developed a pretty good on-court rapport with Davis by this stage, so it will be interesting to see how he adapts to life a) without his running mate, and b) with one of the most ball-dominant players in the league in Luka Doncic alongside him. But at 40, LeBron is increasingly content to play off ball more often, and he’ll certainly have that itch scratched by Doncic. How it affects his production remains to be seen, but it seems more likely to flatten his numbers out a little rather than boost them, not that he will be all that fussed. LeBron isn’t chasing MVPs at this stage of his career, he’s chasing titles, and while he seems likely to put up decent numbers forever, they won’t be enough to have him legitimately in the mix for the MVP award.

Bet on LeBron James to win the MVP @ $501.00 with Unibet

Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers)

Finally, to the (probably) best player on the team with the best record in the NBA – at least for the time being. The Cavs are being hunted down by the Thunder, but regardless of that they have been extremely impressive this season and Donovan Mitchell is a significant reason why. It’s testament to both the players and Kenny Atkinson as coach that Mitchell has actually been a little down on his usual production this season – his 23.8 points per game are the lowest since his sophomore season, while his 4.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists are also well down on last year’s numbers. But that’s not to say he’s been bad – Darius Garland has improved and taken on a more significant role, while Evan Mobley – who has the highest ceiling on this team – has also taken another step forward.

In fact, a case could be made that Garland has been better than Mitchell this season, and Mobley’s not all that far off either. If you had to pick one, however, it would probably be Mitchell, and that’s why he’s top of the list of Cavaliers in the MVP discussion. But his presence there is really all academic. The best player on the best team is generally going to be at least somewhere in the conversation, though it’s questionable whether he is the Cavs’ best player and whether they are the best team. Mitchell will play a key role in determining how far this team can go in the postseason and probably has the capacity to take his game to another level more than anyone else on his team at this point in time, but he won’t be getting a look in on many, if any, MVP ballots at the end of the season.

Bet on Donovan Mitchell to win the MVP @ $501.00 with Unibet

Our Prediction

There are plenty of brilliant players in the league at the moment, but Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic are streets ahead in the MVP race at the moment for good reason. They have been all season, with SGA generally holding the upper hand thanks largely to the dominance of his Thunder, and his case has grown significantly in recent weeks – a couple of 50-point games helping a lot. But as good as he is, he is way too short to justify betting on, particularly given just how good Jokic has been. This is the best version of a guy who has already won three MVP awards and is rapidly establishing himself as one of the best players in history, and yet he is paying $4 to win it this season. Granted I don’t have a say in who wins it and probably for good reason, but if I did, that vote would be going to a guy having clearly the most impact on his team offensively in the league, and who is leading what would otherwise be a dreadful team to a potential top four spot in the West. SGA could very well win it this season and would be a worthy victor, but Jokic is the value bet at this point in time for me.

Top Betting Sits for NBA Betting 

NBA MVP awards by position

  • Point guard - 11 
  • Shooting guard - 8
  • Small forward - 9
  • Power forward - 10
  • Center – 30

NBA MVP History

  • 2023-24 - Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
  • 2022-23 – Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers) 
  • 2021-22 - Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
  • 2020-21 - Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
  • 2019-20 - Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
  • 2018-19 - Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
  • 2017-18 - James Harden (Houston Rockets)
  • 2016-17 - Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City Thunder)
  • 2015-16 - Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors)
  • 2014-15 - Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors)
  • 2013-14 - Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City Thunder)
  • 2012-13 - LeBron James (Miami Heat)
  • 2011-12 - LeBron James (Miami Heat)
  • 2010-11 - Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls)

James is a sports writer from Melbourne, and has contributed to a variety of publications covering a range of sports including basketball, cricket, Australian Rules, golf and surfing to name a few. An avid fan of all of the above and more, James’ downtime is spent falling ungracefully off his surfboard, turning over footies and playing an out of tune guitar.

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