AFL 2024 Least Wins Wooden Spoon Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

By:
James Salmon
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2024 Least Wins Wooden Spoon Betting

The AFL is arguably as equal as it has ever been, with the vast majority of teams capable of playing finals. But for the past couple of years, the Eagles and the Kangaroos have been the notable exception to that rule, winning just five games each combined across those two years. Unsurprisingly, they will once again both headline the favourites for the 2024 Wooden Spoon, and by some margin too. But every year there are surprises, so while it’s hard to imagine any other side finishing with the least wins, stranger things have certainly happened before. On this page, we will take a look at all of the favourites in this market, and what their chances are of finishing on the bottom of the ladder. 

Updated: 01 March 2024

 

AFL 2024 Wooden Spoon Favourites

West Coast Eagles

It’s been a rough couple of years for the Eagles. After gradually dropping down the ladder following their Premiership in 2018, they won just two games in a disastrous 2022 season, and made it to just three last year. Despite that extra win, however, they were probably worse in 2023, boasting an historically bad percentage of below 50% for much of the season, before two wins and a one-point loss in their last five games helped them sneak back above it. Admittedly they were hit with an extraordinarily bad run of injuries last season, and unsurprisingly when a large chunk of those players returned to the field late in the year, they were more competitive. But the fact remains that this club has done a really poor job of turning over their list since that 2018 flag, and with a significant portion of their older stars having recently retired or past their best, there isn’t nearly the depth of young talent coming through that is required to keep them competitive. The hope for the Eagles will be that the raft of injuries that they have endured in recent years will fast track the development of at least a few of their youngsters who have been exposed to more top level footy than they might have otherwise been. But the path forward for this club remains unclear. The competitive nature of the end of their 2023 season might provide a little bit of optimism among Eagles fans that they can at least win a handful of games this year, but they are Wooden Spoon favourites for a reason and it would be no surprise to see them end up right down the bottom once again. 

  • What brings them here? A continued decline since their 2018 flag has seen the Eagles reach rock bottom to the point where, last year, they were losing by ten goals or more virtually every week.
  • What has changed? Each of Shannon Hurn, Nic Naitanui and Luke Shuey has retired, leaving a vacuum of experience in this side. They picked up Tyler Brockman in a trade and Matt Flynn as a free agent, but the most significant acquisition they’ve made is that of highly touted number one draft pick Harley Reid.
  • Injury update: As has become customary, the Eagles have a pretty long injury list, even before the start of the season. Dom Sheed and Liam Ryan are the most significant names on it, each of them set to miss the first month or two of the season, while new recruit Matthew Flynn will miss even more than that. Jai Culley should be available after an ACL tear last year a few weeks into the season.

Bet on West Coast Eagles to win the Wooden Spoon at $2.30 with PlayUp

North Melbourne Kangaroos

The Kangaroos are in the midst of one of the least competitive stretches by any team in the modern era. They haven’t managed to pull themselves out of the bottom two since 2019, finishing 17th twice and 18th twice, and were it not for the hapless Eagles last year would have been a third consecutive Wooden Spoon. They’ve won a grand total of 12 games across the last four years including just five last year, but while it would be hard for them to get any worse, they do at least have some scope for improvement this year. They had a few competitive losses last year and a percentage of over 70% was a lot better than what the Eagles managed, and though it’s hard to be positive about a team that didn’t win a game between Rounds 2 and 24, they do actually finally have a few talented youngsters to be excited about. The likes of George Wardlaw, Nick Larkey and Harry Sheezel will try desperately to usher in a slightly less depressing new era for the Kangaroos, and with Alastair Clarkson at the helm they should receive some pretty good guidance. Of course, for a team that has been so bad for so long, caution is advised – there was optimism a couple of years ago, too, and that hasn’t really come to anything as yet. The Kangaroos should be a little more competitive this year than last and will be hoping to at least equal their scintillating four and a half win season from 2021, but more than likely they will still find themselves right in the mix alongside the Eagles for last place. 

  • What brings them here? Years and years of mediocrity, to put it kindly. The Kangaroos have been a bottom two side for four years and look likely to be there again in 2024.
  • What has changed? Each of Ben Cunnington, Aaron Hall and Jack Ziebell have retired, while veteran Todd Goldstein was traded to the Bombers along with Ben McKay. Coming into the team, a lot of draft picks aside, are Zac Fisher from Carlton and Dylan Stephens from the Swans.
  • Injury update: Fortunately for the Roos they have a reasonably short injury list in the lead-up to the season. Griffin Logue will miss at least a few months as he recovers from an ACL suffered in July last year, while Jy Simpkin will miss the first week or two following a sickening bump in the pre-season. 

Bet on West Coast Eagles to win the Wooden Spoon at $2.30 with PlayUp

Hawthorn Hawks

The Hawks looked likely to be right in the Wooden Spoon mix over the early stages of last year, losing eight of their first nine games often by large margins, and with their only win coming in a close game against the Kangaroos. But a 116-point win over the mighty Eagles kickstarted a turn around in form which saw them beat St. Kilda the week after, and then the Lions in their most impressive performance of the season two weeks later. They weren’t able to continue that run for long, but they did show plenty over the latter stages of the season, not least when they beat the Magpies easily and then the Bulldogs the following week late in the year. Their list is clearly building under Sam Mitchell and they have the bones of what could be a very good team. There is the potential for them to improve significantly this year, but it’s equally possible that they are not yet ready to live up to the expectations set for them, particularly with a grim looking injury list prior to the season. It would be extremely disappointing if they went backwards this year and found themselves down the bottom of the ladder, but plenty of teams in the past have taken a step back after seemingly taking one forward. Their odds look around the mark for them to finish bottom in 2024. . 

  • What brings them here? The Hawks have been towards the bottom of the ladder for a few years now, having not won more than eight games in a season since 2019.
  • What has changed? The Hawks will have a very new-look forward line, with Fergus Greene delisted and both Jacob Koschitzke and Brandon Ryan traded, alongside Tyler Brockman. Meanwhile, they traded for Jack Ginnivan, Mabior Chol and club legend Jack Gunston, as well as bringing in Massimo D’Ambrosio.
  • Injury update: Will Day and Changkuoth Jaith will miss the first few weeks while Chad Wingard will miss even longer as he recovers from his Achilles injury. Seamus Mitchell and Bailey Macdonald miss at least a couple of weeks to start the year, Denver Grainger-Barass will miss half the season, and defender James Blanck is out for the season with an ACL. 

Bet on Hawthorn Hawks to win the Wooden Spoon at $2.30 with PlayUp

Fremantle Dockers

Last year was a super disappointing one for the Dockers. After gradually building under Justin Longmuir to the point where they won 15 games and fell just short of the top four in 2022, they appeared primed to compete for a spot deep in September in 2023. Instead, the ball movement which they had slowly developed to complement their strong defensive identity abandoned them entirely, and they won just ten games and missed the finals. That was a major backwards step for Fremantle, and making matters worse they lost a couple of best 22 players in the form of Lachie Schultz and Liam Henry to the lure of Victoria. Theoretically they could be a worse team this year than last, and with most other teams seeming to have some reason for optimism, they could end up falling behind. Still, it’s hard to imagine them winning as few games as will likely be necessary to finish bottom. This is still a team which won 15 games just two years ago, and to win less than probably the three or four which would see them finish bottom would be a big surprise. 

  • What brings them here? Basically, a really poor 2023 season. Their progression had been pretty steady up until then, but after an impressive 2022 they took a big step backwards last year.
  • What has changed? As mentioned, both Liam Henry and Lachie Schultz have been lost to Victorian clubs, while Joel Hamling was also traded. They didn’t bring much in either, with Jeremy Sharp from the Gold Coast their only pick up of note.
  • Injury update: Sean Darcy and Nathan O’Driscoll will miss the opening rounds as a result of their respective knee injuries, while Josh Corbett will miss the entire season with a hip injury. Michael Frederick and Brennan Cox have had issues in the lead-up to Round 1, but may not miss a game, while Heath Chapman might miss one or two with a hammy. 

Bet on Fremantle Dockers to win the Wooden Spoon at $15.00 with PlayUp

Richmond Tigers

The AFL has one of the best equalisation set-ups in world sport, and the result is that it’s invariably very difficult to stay at the top for long. Teams like the Cats and Swans have managed to stave off falling too far down the ladder for long, and after their three Premierships in four years the Tigers have clearly been trying to do the same. But with a raft of their stars from those dynastic years having recently retired and many others getting older, it’s getting increasingly hard for them. After making the finals and losing in heartbreaking fashion to the Lions in the first week in 2022, they were expected to bounce back and compete last year, but instead they struggled and ended up finishing in 13th. Their most significant issue was a forward line which revolved almost exclusively around an aging Jack Riewoldt in Tom Lynch’s absence, and with Lynch back, Jacob Koschitzke picked up from Hawthorn and Noah Balta expected to play forward, they should have a lot more targets up there than previously. But under a new full-time coach for the first time in over a decade in Adem Yze, the fact remains that they will have a lot of young players in their best 22. With guys like Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton running around and a few of the other stars from their Premiership days still around, it’s not out of the realms of possibility that this team competes for a spot in the finals. But with depth likely to be a problem and the potential for the teething issues which often accompany a new coach, it wouldn’t surprise to see them drop further down the ladder either. If they dropped below the Eagles and the Kangaroos it would be a shock, but this could easily be a bottom four year for the Tiges. 

  • What brings them here? The Tigers have gradually dropped down the ladder since their last Premiership in 2023, and last year missed the finals for the first time since 2016.
  • What has changed? Coach aside, the Tigers have lost a couple of club legends in Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt to retirement, while Robbie Tarrant also hung up the boots and Ivan Soldo was traded to Port Adelaide. Jacob Koschitzke was brought in to bolster their forward line, while Sam Naismith will provide some back up for Toby Nankervis in Soldo’s absence. 
  • Injury update: The Tigers have a few injuries in the lead up to the season, but not much too drastic. Tom Lynch, Dustin Martin and Toby Nankervis will miss at least the opening game of the season and particularly Lynch, maybe more, while Jack Graham is expected to miss a month after frustratingly injuring his quad late in a practice game.

Bet on Richmond Tigers to win the Wooden Spoon at $15.00 with PlayUp

Essendon Bombers

The Bombers come in next on the list, and while it would be incredibly disappointing if they were to get anywhere near the bottom of the ladder, this is a team which has developed a habit for disappointment. It’s officially been 20 years since Essendon last won a final, and never really in that time have they got close. Last year, a few weeks out from the end of the home and away season they looked well poised to play in September, but they instead fell in a heap over the last month of the year and ended up finishing 11th. Theirs is a list with too many similar players and too few with much of an X-Factor, and it’s hard to see the team as it's currently assembled developing into a Premiership threat. Equally, however, they have enough going for them that they should be a mid-tier team this year, not a bottom one. Brad Scott has overseen a couple of off-field changes which have been a long time in the making, and with a few good young players who should show some improvement they will be expecting to compete for finals once again. That has been a consistent theme for this team for a number of years now; in five of the last seven years they have won at least 11 games, but never have they won more than 12. The Bombers aren’t really top of the list to display huge improvement this year, but equally, it’s hard to imagine them finishing right down the bottom. 

  • What brings them here? The Bombers have simply failed to develop enough high end talent to take them past the middle of the AFL ladder over recent years, and have found themselves stuck in purgatory for a number of seasons as a result.
  • What has changed? The Bombers have at least enjoyed some nice acquisitions over the off-season. Ben McKay comes across from North to cover the loss of Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, while they also picked up Xavier Duursma, Jade Gresham and Todd Goldstein, and number ten pick Nate Caddy looks like a good find capable of making an immediate impact. Massimo D’Ambrosio was traded to Hawthorn, while Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti retired for a second time.
  • Injury update: Tex Wanganeen will miss the first month and a half of the season with a foot injury while Jordan Ridley is out for a month with a quad. That aside their best 22 looks reasonably healthy.

Bet on Essendon Bombers to win the Wooden Spoon at $21.00 with PlayUp

Gold Coast Suns

Like the Bombers, the Suns certainly know how to underperform. They have now been in the league for 13 years and are still yet to make a finals series, and even over the past few years when they have been a little more competitive they have still finished in the bottom five in three of the past four years. But while their list is not fantastic, it is getting there, and under the guise of three-time Premiership coach Damian Hardwick they will be expecting – and the AFL will be desperately hoping – that they can at long last break their finals duck. But we’ve said that many times before, and despite often starting seasons well they have never demonstrated an ability to remain a realistic top eight chance for all that long. Having won nine and then ten games the past two years, it is difficult to see this team losing enough to finish bottom, but their growth has been painfully slow and they’re still yet to really produce anything of much substance. It’s a really important year for the Suns as they try to finally demonstrate that they’re capable of being a relevant team in the league, but realistically the worst case scenario should be that they miss out on finals by a couple of games. If they finish last, it would be an unmitigated disaster. 

  • What brings them here? The Suns have made a home for themselves towards the bottom of the ladder for most of their existence, though they have gradually torn themselves out of the bottom couple in the past few years.
  • What has changed? Damian Hardwick coming in as coach is a significant change, and on the field not much has changed. Chris Burgess was traded to the Crows, Mabior Chol to the Hawks and Elijah Hollands to the Blues, but that aside they have much the same team as last year.
  • Injury update: Lachie Weller will miss half the season or more as he continues to recover from an ACL tear suffered last season, but that aside their best 22 is looking relatively intact as we enter the season.

Bet on Gold Coast Suns to win the Wooden Spoon at $26.00 with PlayUp

St. Kilda Saints

The last team we will look at is the Saints, who are at very long odds to win the Wooden Spoon – and for pretty good reason. Like the Suns and Bombers they are pretty good at disappointing their fans – perhaps the best in the league at it – but they are slowly, slowly making their way up the ladder. Last season was their best in terms of wins since their Grand Final year in 2010, winning 13 games across the course of the season, though admittedly they didn’t look like a finals team for much of the year. They started off like a house on fire in Ross Lyon’s second tenure as a coach and that kept them in the eight for a long time, but as the season wore on their performance dropped off and it seemed inevitable that they would drop out of the eight. Credit to them, however, they managed to bounce back enough to remain in the eight, though they were beaten pretty comfortably by the Giants in the first week of the finals. The Saints have some reasonable talent on their list but need more to really compete with the best teams in the league, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they fell out of the top eight this year. It would, however, be a huge surprise if they tumbled all the way to the bottom. There is plenty of value to be had for them to win the Wooden Spoon, but there’s a reason for that. It’s hard to see them going anywhere near the bottom of the ladder this year. 

  • What brings them here? The Saints have often found themselves at the bottom of the ladder over their relatively undecorated existence, but they’ve finished tenth or higher in each of the last four years and were sixth in 2023.  
  • What has changed? The Saints traded a number of long-standing members of their team in Jade Gresham, Jack Billings and Nick Coffield, but they did pick up Liam Henry and Paddy Dow via trade and got Riley Bonner in the pre-season draft.
  • Injury update: Unfortunately there is quite a lot for the Saints’ medical team to do early in the season. Each of Paddy Down, Hunter Clark, Jack Hayes and Dougal Howard will miss around the first month, while Dan Butler, Marcus Windhager and Jack Sinclair will miss the first couple of weeks. Ben Paton will be out for a lot longer – around half the season or more – with a pectoral injury, while Jimmy Webster will miss a huge seven weeks through suspension for his off-season hit on Jy Simpkin.

Bet on St. Kilda Saints to win the Wooden Spoon at $26.00 with PlayUp

Our Prediction

While there are always surprises in the AFL and every season there are a couple of teams who either perform drastically better or worse than expectations, but it would take every bit of that for anyone other than the Kangaroos or the Eagles to finish bottom. Those two teams are at very short odds for this early on in the year to finish last, but they deserve to be based on their performances over the past couple of years. Each of them will probably struggle to win all that many games once again this year, but the Kangaroos look like they have the most scope to improve in the short-term. The Eagles list remains a bit of a mess while a long injury list – again – also doesn’t help, and given that not too much separates those two teams in the betting, West Coast looks like the pick to make it two Wooden Spoons in as many years. 

Statistics

Wooden Spoon teams that failed to win a match

  • Thirteen wooden spoon teams failed to win a match during a VFL/AFL season, the most recent being Fitzroy in 1964.

Most Wooden Spoons Won

  • 27 – St Kilda Saints, most recently in 2014.

Least Wooden Spoons Won

  • Only the Port Adelaide Power have never won the Wooden Spoon. Ironically, the 21st century’s least successful club, the Carlton Blues, has won all 5 of their Wooden Spoons since 2002.

Most ‘successful’ Wooden Spoon team

  • The 1976 Collingwood Magpies hold the record for the most wins by a wooden spoon team in a season with six wins.

AFL/AFLW Wooden Spoon ‘Double’

  • Carlton are the only team to have both men’s and women’s teams win the wooden spoon in the same season, occurring in 2018.

James is a sports writer from Melbourne, and has contributed to a variety of publications covering a range of sports including basketball, cricket, Australian Rules, golf and surfing to name a few. An avid fan of all of the above and more, James’ downtime is spent falling ungracefully off his surfboard, turning over footies and playing an out of tune guitar.

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