NRL 2024 Least Wins Wooden Spoon Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The 2023 race for a Wooden Spoon involved, for most of the season, only the Tigers and the Dragons, and the odds prior to this season suggested it would be similar. But very rapidly, things have changed. A couple of early decent results have helped those two sides stay away from the bottom of the ladder, but more significant has been the woeful start to the year for the Titans. That has seen them leap into odds on favouritism to end the season with the least wins, though there are three teams not all that far behind. On this page, we’ll take a look at this market in detail, analysing the chances of the favourites to end up with the ignominious title of the 2024 Wooden Spooners. 

The Titans were a little way down this list at the beginning of the season, paying $10 to win the Wooden Spoon in a season in which there was some optimism for improvement. But incredibly rapidly, that optimism has diminished, and through the first few weeks of the season they have been by some margin the worst team in the NRL. Their first four games saw four losses by at least 13 points, including a 24-point defeat to the then-Wooden Spoon favourites in the Dragons, and then a 32-0 drubbing at the hands of the Bulldogs. Making matters worse, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui did his ACL in the opening weeks and will miss the season as a result, which will leave a vacuum both in his position but also in the leadership ranks. There’s nothing really positive to say about the Titans start to the season; injury to their captain aside, they have been completely listless on the field, and the way they have played would probably not win them a single game all year. Of course, that won’t happen, and after their pathetic first two weeks they did at least start hitting the scoreboard with a little more regularity – though that isn’t particularly difficult given they managed just four points across their first two games. But they’ve got a lot of work to do even to start playing competitively. They have been clearly the worst team in the league to date and the odds suggest as much, and without their captain for the whole year they will have an even harder time than they otherwise would have turning things around. The favouritism for the Wooden Spoon is certainly justified at this point in time, though given how rapidly they’ve come in there doesn’t look to be all that much value in betting on them. 

• What brings them here? A disastrous start to the year and an injury to their captain and best player. A bottom finish didn’t look all that likely entering the year, but that has very quickly changed with a few terrible performances. 
• What has changed? Very little changed for the Titans in the off-season. They lost Kruise Leeming to Wigan, and brought in Keenan Palasia from the Broncos and Harley Smith-Shields from the Raiders. 
• Injury update: As mentioned, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui will miss the entire season with an ACL in a massive blow. Phil Sami is expected to return in Round 8 from an ankle, while Keenan Palasia is just about ready to go after a quad injury.

Bet on the Titans to have the least wins @ $1.60 with GetSetBet 

After narrowly avoiding bottom spot last year, the Dragons aren’t likely to be all that much better this season and entered the season as a very marginal favourite to win the Wooden Spoon over the Tigers. But their start to the season was reasonable enough, and with the Titans falling off a cliff their odds have ballooned out. It doesn’t take all that many wins to avoid the Wooden Spoon – usually five or so will keep you off the bottom – and in their first four games, the Dragons managed a couple of them. The first of those was a dominant win against the Titans, and while they were flogged the next two weeks, an eight-point win over the Sea Eagles in Round 4 was both surprising and pretty impressive. Still, the Dragons are going to be a pretty average team this year, and in a league with a lot of equality and plenty of mid-tier teams, it’s easy to see why they are one of the favourites to end up on the bottom. Their fortunes in this market may well depend on the Titans; the Dragons may not win more than five or six games this year and that could easily be less than every other team with the potential exception of the Titans. If Gold Coast pull themselves together then it will put the Dragons in a prime position to finish on the bottom. Betting on them here is, in many ways, a bet on the Titans to pull their finger out. 

• What brings them here? The Dragons were not a good team at all last year after winning more than they probably should have the year prior, and though they underwent a lot of change in the offseason they are still likely to be a bottom four side.
• What has changed? A fair bit. A lot of trades were made in the off-season, with Jayden Sullivan likely their most significant loss – even more so in the context of the Wooden Spoon race given he went to the Tigers – but Raymond Faitala-Mariner coming in amongst a host of others.
• Injury update: Not too many injuries to report for the Dragons. Corey Allan is pretty much it at the time of writing, though his is significant; a knee injury that will keep him out for the season.

Bet on the Dragons to have the least wins @ $6.00 with GetSetBet 

It’s been a rough decade or so for the Tigers. They haven’t made the finals since 2011 and have won the Wooden Spoon in two consecutive years under a ridiculous number of different coaches, but with Benji Marshall now in charge the hope is that they can finally tear themselves off the bottom of the ladder. And their start to the season has given them a pretty reasonable chance of doing just that. Having won just four games in each of the past two years, they won two of their first three in 2024, knocking off the Sharks in a really impressive 32-6 performance before edging out the Eels the very next week. Whether they can maintain that form is another question entirely, but they have started life under Marshall looking a hell of a lot better than they have for most of the past couple of years. They have a number of winnable games throughout the course of April and May, and if they can snare a couple more in that period they will put themselves in a really good position to not win the Wooden Spoon for the first time since 2021. Of course, this team has made a habit of being disappointing for a long time and it’s hard to escape the mindset that something is going to go awry. But this is a new era for the Tigers, and while they’re a long way off being anything resembling a finals team, they do look like they might be able to dodge the Wooden Spoon this season. 

• What brings them here? This is where the Tigers live. They have been a bottom side for such a long time that it feels like an inevitability to see them near the bottom of the ladder, particularly after two successive Wooden Spoons. 
• What has changed? Obviously Benji Marshall in as head coach is a big change, but on the field a lot has changed too. They’ve lost quite a few players, probably most notably Luke Brooks, though Justin Olam is a big in as he comes across from the Storm.  
• Injury update: Adam Doueihi is the longest term injury the Tigers have, with his knee injury set to keep him out until Round 17, while the severity of Lata Fainu’s hamstring injury is yet to be confirmed. A raft of concussions a month into the season saw Jake Simpkin, John Bateman and Samuela Faina unavailable, but only in the short term. Star To’a should be available after an ankle injury in Round 8.

Bet on the Tigers to have the least wins @ $7.00 with GetSetBet 

The last member of a pretty clear top four in the betting odds for the Wooden Spoon is the Bulldogs, who like the Tigers have found themselves stuck on the bottom rungs of the ladder for some time now. They haven’t finished higher than 11th since 2016, and in the past four years have won three, three, seven and seven games. This year there was hope that they could show some improvement after bringing in a huge number of players in coach Ciraldo’s second season in charge, though a couple of big losses to start the season was far from ideal. A hefty injury list didn’t help either, but after that poor fortnight they actually fought back quite well. A win against the hapless Titans was a nice way to kickstart their season before they went down narrowly to the Rabbitohs and then beat the Roosters in a bizarre game which they dominated in the first half, only to melt down in the second half. They showed some good signs in that three week period, and particularly given the fact that they have a number of players to come back in the coming weeks, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see them separate themselves from the above three teams throughout the course of the season. At $8 there is a little bit of value to be had here, but the Bulldogs look well placed to stay a fair way away from the bottom of the NRL ladder. 

• What brings them here? The Bulldogs have been cellar dwellers for a long time, but mass changes over the past couple of years will, at least they hope, help them to gradually claw their way back up the ladder.
• What has changed? Stephen Crichton is joined by former Penrith teammate Jaeman Salmon in coming across from Penrith, while Blake Taaffe comes over from the Rabbitohs, Kurt Mann from the Knights, Jake Turpin and Drew Hutchison from the Roosters and Josh Currnan from the Warriors. Obviously those gains have been accompanied by a few losses, too; Jake Averillo goes to the Dolphins, Kyle Flanagan and Raymond Faitala-Mariner to the Dragons, Corey Waddell to the Sea Eagles, and Paul Alamoti to Penrith amongst others. 
• Injury update: There is a fair bit going on here. A number of them a short termers, though Karl Oloapu is out indefinitely and Daniel Suluka-Fifita and Ryan Sutton aren’t expected back till Round 12. Jacob Preston should be available around Round 9 from a jaw injury, while there is not yet info on the timelines of Max King, Kurt Mann, Blake Taaffe, Harrison Edwards or Blake Wilson.

Bet on the Bulldogs to have the least wins @ $8.00 with GetSetBet 

After that clear top four in this market there is a bit of a drop to the Rabbitohs, though they are sitting clear in fifth spot well below that top four but significantly ahead of the rest of the league. This is the last place they would have wanted or expected to find themselves. After a tumultuous last year they nonetheless entered 2024 as one of the Premiership favourites, but they have under-delivered spectacularly in the early stages of the season. Coach Demetriou looks to be on borrowed time after a start which saw them lose four of their first five games, a couple of them in embarrassing fashion. The first of those was a Round 3 defeat to their old rivals in the Roosters – they lost that one 48-6 – while a couple of weeks later they went down 34-4 to the Warriors. They are so far off the pace at the moment it isn’t even funny, and for a team which, all going well, could theoretically find themselves in the top four, it’s remarkable to see them battling it out in this market. It’s almost impossible to imagine them actually finishing on bottom of the ladder and it feels far more likely that they will somehow manage to sort themselves out and potentially make a play for the finals, but things are going so poorly both on and off the field that it’s anyone’s guess how this year will play out for the Rabbitohs. Their best case scenario is a lot better than the teams around them in this market, but equally, if things continue as they are they could shorten further in the Wooden Spoon betting.

• What brings them here? Nobody would have expected to see the Bunnies in this conversation this season, but a truly disastrous first few weeks of the season has seen them stuck on the bottom of the ladder. 
• What has changed? Not all that much has changed from last year on the field for the Rabbitohs. Jack Wighton is a big in from the Raiders while Sean Keppie came across from Manly, and leaving was Hame Sela, Daniel Suluka-Fifita, Blake Taaffe and Jed Cartwright.
• Injury update: Injuries certainly haven’t helped the Rabbitohs early in the season. Richie Kennar, Lachlan Ilias and Jai Arrow still have no timeline on their returns, while Campbell Graham is expected back late in the season from a sternum and Campbell Graham in Round 10 from a hamstring. Latrell Mitchell will also be out until Round 10 with a hamstring injury. 

Bet on the Rabbitohs to have the least wins @ $13.00 with GetSetBet 

Now we’re really starting to get to the long shots. The Eels finished in the top six for four consecutive seasons prior to last year, culminating in a Grand Final appearance in 2022. While they were unable to back that up last year and ended up missing the finals, they still won 12 games and were obviously not even close to the Wooden Spoon. This year should be similar. They are probably not realistic contenders and could easily struggle to make the finals, particularly with Mitchell Moses out for a few weeks, but if they’re to get anywhere near the bottom of the ladder they will need to go on a surprisingly bad run in his absence. There have been some signs of that prospect, however, with a loss to the Tigers followed by a 41-8 defeat at the hands of the Raiders. Both of those results were pretty concerning and point to a team which is struggling to put it together, so if they continue to play as poorly as they did during that fortnight then expectations for their season may begin to change. For the time being, however, their focus will still be on hopefully putting themselves in contention for a finals spot. A bottom of the ladder finish feels a long way off, and even at really long odds it’s hard to justify betting on the Eels in this market. 

• What brings them here? The Eels haven’t been near the bottom of the ladder for years and probably won’t be this year either, though a really poor couple of weeks in Moses’ absence was some cause for concern.
• What has changed? Not too much has changed on field for the Eels. Waqa Blake has been moved on while Josh Hodgson and Andrew Davey retired, and they picked up a couple of Sea Eagles in Morgan Harper and Kelma Tuilagi. field for the Eels. Waqa Blake has been moved on while Josh Hodgson and Andrew Davey retired, and they picked up a couple of Sea Eagles in Morgan Harper and Kelma Tuilagi.
• Injury update: Mitchell Moses is the biggest name on the injury list for the Eels, expected to return from a foot injury in about Round 12. Arthur Miller-Stephen will miss the season with a knee, Haze Dunster won’t be available till late in the season with a foot, while Toni Mataele has a hamstring that will probably keep him out until Round 11. Matt Doorey is due back from a facial fracture in about Round 10. 

Bet on the Eels to have the least wins @ $26.00 with GetSetBet 

Just a couple of years ago, the Knights weren’t all that far away from the Wooden Spoon, winning just six games in Adam O’Brien’s third season and finishing in 14th. Last year they appeared destined for a similar finish and pressure was mounting with a couple of months to go in the year, but a scintillating run of form over the back half of the game saw them win nine games on the trot, finish in fifth and ultimately make their way through to the semi-finals. The question now is, which version of the Knights is the real one? For a year and a half they were a really bad team and not all that far away from the true cellar dwellers, but things really clicked for them over the latter stages of 2023. Heading into this year they have a number of significant list changes, with a few of their best players having headed elsewhere but a few handy acquisitions offset that to an extent. Their start to the season hasn’t been great on paper, but the 2-4 record they boasted after six games probably wasn’t reflective of how they’ve played; included among those results were an impressive win against the Storm, a one-point loss to the Cowboys and a two-poinit loss to the Roosters. Early in the season they find themselves towards the bottom of the ladder, but it’s really hard to imagine them staying there as the year wears on. 

• What brings them here? The Knights had a bad year and a half over 2022 and the beginning of 2023, but they have come out the other end and are much more likely to be a finals team than a Wooden Spoon contender this year.
• What has changed? Dominic Young is a significant loss for the Knights after he led them in tries last season, while they’ve also lost Kurt Mann, Bailey Hodgson, Simi Sasagi, Lachlan Miller, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Adam Clune. On the flip side, they will welcome Jack Cogger and Thomas Jenkins from the Panthers, as well as Jed Cartwright from the Rabbitohs, and Will Pryce and Kai Pearce-Paul from abroad. 
• Injury update: The Knights have pretty much a clean bill of health at the time of writing. Kalyn Ponga suffered a hip injury in Round 6 but played out the game – he will obviously be very closely monitored given his importance to the team. 

Bet on the Knights to have the least wins @ $26.00 with GetSetBet 

Having only joined the league last year, the Dolphins appeared destined for a Wooden Spoon early in their NRL life, but under the guidance of Wayne Bennett they appear almost certain to avoid it. They entered last season as a very short-priced favourite to finish on the bottom of the ladder but instead found themselves up the top after a few weeks, and though they unsurprisingly faltered as the season wore on, they still won nine games and were a long way off the bottom. They’re still not expected to set the world on fire this season, but they have been handed a friendly draw to start the year and have quickly gone about showing that they are a level above the bottom feeders, knocking off the Dragons by 38 points, the Titans by 16 and the Tigers by ten within the space of three weeks. In Bennett’s last year in charge, it will be interesting to see just how close to the finals the Dolphins can get, and that is more likely to be their storyline for the year rather than whether or not they can avoid the Wooden Spoon.  

• What brings them here? As the newest team in the league the Dolphins haven’t had too much in the way of expectations to deal with since entering the NRL, but whatever they were, this plucky team has defied them.
• What has changed? The Dolphins have bolstered their depth in the offseason by acquiring names including Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler from the Broncos, Jake Averillo from the Raiders, and Oryn Keeley from the Knights. Poasa Faamusili goes to the Bulldogs, meanwhile, in their biggest loss from last year. 
• Injury update: The Dolphins have a few issues to deal with on the injury front early in the year, though mostly not long term. Tom Gilbert is an exception; he’s out for the year with a knee, while Tom Flegler and Felise Kaufusi are awaiting more info to know how long they’re out for. Herbie Farnworth should be back in Round 9 from a shoulder injury while Kurt Donohoe is due back the week prior from suspension.

Bet on the Knights to have the least wins @ $34.00 with GetSetBet 

The Titans are the surprise odds-on favourite in this market for good reason and have clearly been the worst team in the league throughout the first month or so of the season, but considering how long there is to go they are really, really short. They will likely struggle for the rest of the year particularly without their skipper, but at $1.60 they don’t look like good value. The benefit of their poor form is that it has blown out the odds of the previous favourites in the Dragons and the Tigers, and the former of those in particular looks to me like the value bet. The Dragons had low expectations entering the year, and while they’ve racked up a couple of wins they’ve also had some dreadful losses. At $6, they are the value bet in this market.  

• Only 2 sides have won the NRL Premiership within 2 years of winning the Wooden Spoon, – the Panthers in 2003 and the Sharks in 2016. No team has ever won the NRL Premiership the year after a Wooden Spoon win.

Most Wooden Spoons Won

• 17 – Western Suburbs Magpies (now defunct), lastly in 1999.
• 14 – Parramatta Eels – most Wooden Spoon finishes among current clubs.

Least Wooden Spoons Won

• The Wests Tigers, Manly Sea Eagles and St George Illawarra Dragons have never won the Wooden Spoon, while the Canberra Raiders finished last only once in their maiden year in the NRL competition in 1982.

Most ‘successful’ Wooden Spoon turnaround team

• The 2009 Sydney Roosters finished last and bounced back to reach the 2010 NRL Grand Final but were denied the ultimate turnaround after being defeated by the St George Illawarra Dragons in the ‘big dance’.