NRL – Top 8 NRL 2024 Betting Odds & Expert’s Predictions

By:
James Salmon
NRL Betting Tips
NRL Expert Prediction 2024

Entering the 2024 NRL season, last year’s Grand Finalists are a long way ahead of the chasing pack in the Premiership odds, while a group of three sits not too far behind them. For each of these teams, particularly the top two, a flag is the ultimate goal and making finals should be a lay-down-misère. But the odds suggest as much, too, and you won’t find a whole lot of value prior to the season’s first match for any of the Panthers, Broncos, Roosters, Rabbitohs or Storm to make the eight. Each year, however, there are a few surprise packets that make a run at a finals appearance, and on this page we’ll take a look at some of the best outside chances to make the top eight. 

Updated: 01 March 2024

 

NRL Outsiders Odds to make the Top 8 in 2024

Best Outsider Teams to make the Top 8 in 2024

New Zealand Warriors

Maybe I’m being a bit liberal with the first couple of here given that they are shorter than even money to make the eight and thus aren’t technically outsiders, but given that they are still decent value I thought I’d include the Warriors and Cowboys anyway. Courtesy of the fact that the top five are so highly touted entering the season, there is some pretty decent value being offered up for the Warriors to make the top eight. With most NRL betting sites they are at pretty close to even money, and that’s despite finishing top four and making it through to a Preliminary Final last year. That was a huge jump up from the year prior, and though they have lost a few names entering this season they have also gained a big one in the form of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. If the Roosters and Rabbitohs can actually put together a full season they are realistically probably better placed to finish top four than the Warriors, but as far as next best candidates go after the top four they head the list. It would be a huge disappointment for the Warriors to go from Preliminary Finalists to missing the finals within the space of a year, and I think that is an unlikely outcome. At $1.70 they look like a decent bet to make it two finals appearances in as many years. 

  • What brings them here? Basically just last year’s performance. Prior to that they were not a finals side nearly every year, but a huge step up has put them in the mix to not just play finals, but to go deep into the finals series. 
  • What has changed? There have been a few names leave the Warriors, with each of Viliami Vailea, Josh Curran, Ronald Volkman and Bailey Sironen moving elsewhere while Brayden Wiliame retired. As mentioned though, Tuivasa-Sheck is a big in, while they’ve also added Kurt Capewell and Chanel Harris-Tavita. 
  • Injury update: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is battling a hamstring/back injury on the eve of the seasonwhich has no definitive return date, while Edward Kosi will probably miss a couple of games with a hand injury. Demitric Sifakula is out indefinitely with a knee injury.

Bet on the Warriors to make the top eight @ $1.70 with PlayUp

North Queensland Cowboys

The second of my teams which are not technically outsiders to make the top eight but which I still think offer up decent value is the Cowboys. If you watched this team at times last year, you would wonder how on earth anyone could think less than $2 for them to make the finals is any sort of value whatsoever. Catch them at another point in the 2023 season, and you’d be wondering why they aren’t right up there with the top quintet for Premiership favouritism. The gap between the ceiling and floor for this team last year was immense and that may very well be the case this year too, which may sound counterintuitive to backing them as an odds-on chance to make the finals. But the reality is that this team’s best is easily good enough to play finals and then some, and after the topsy turvy nature of last year, surely they can find it within themselves to put it together for a little bit longer than what they managed last year. They can beat anyone in the league on their day, and while they can probably lose to anyone too, having endured such an erratic year last year and picked up a couple of players who will hopefully straighten them out, there is cause to believe that the Cowboys will be a little bit more reliable in 2024 than they were the season prior. 

  • What brings them here? The Cowboys were a Preliminary Finalist just two years ago, and though they missed the finals last year, their run throughout the mid-late stages of the season showed just how good they can be when it all comes together.
  • What has changed? The Cowboys have only added one player to their list, in the form of Viliami Vailea from the Warriors. They’ve lost quite a few; Peta Hiku has gone to the UK, while Riley Price, Jake Bourke and Taniela Sadrugu have also foun
  • Injury update: Coen Hess will miss the entirety of 2024 with a knee injury, while Jamayne Taunoa-Brown is expected to be available around mid-season as he recovers from an Achilles injury. But those long-term injuries are the only ones on their list as they enter the 2024 season.

Bet on the Cowboys to make the top eight @ $1.75 with PlayUp

Newcastle Knights

This is one that I really like. The Knights had been slowly but steadily building ever since their three consecutive Wooden Spoons in the mid-part of last decade, going from one win, to five, nine, ten, 11 and then 12 in 2021. It all came apart in 2022 when they dropped back to 14th, and things looked to be heading in an equally dire direction partway through last season. After 17 weeks of the season they had won just five games and were sitting in 14th, seemingly entirely out of the finals picture, until it finally all started to come together. A 66-0 win against the Bulldogs kickstarted an incredible run home in which they won their last nine games, storming up the ladder from 14th all the way to 5th in that time. They scraped through a Qualifying Final they were widely expected to win to make a semi-final appearance which a couple of months prior would have seemed close to impossible, before going down meekly to the Warriors after an incredible run. Despite that loss, no one can take away the ten wins which preceded it, and having done that there is good reason to think they are value at better than even money odds to make this year’s finals series. Though they didn’t have the hardest draw in the world, they beat a number of good teams during that run and looked like one of the best teams in the league for the last three months of the season. They don’t have to do that again to make finals – if they can avoid another poor start to the year, they should be winning enough games to play in the postseason.

  • What brings them here? Their incredible run last year, which likely saved coach Adam O’Brien’s job, has greatly improved the Knights’ standing in the NRL. Reigning Dally M Medalist Kalyn Ponga played a massive role in that and will again have a big say in their fortunes this season.
  • What has changed? There have been a fair few personnel changes for the Knights, some positive, some not so. They have lost Kurt Mann and Dominic Young, while others to go elsewhere include Bailey Hodgson, Adam Clune, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Simi Sasagi. Jack Cogger and Thomas Jenkins bring their Penrith experience to the club, while the Knights also picked up Jed Cartwright from the Bunnies and Kai Pearce-Paul and Will Pryce from abroad.
  • Injury update: The Knights have a pretty clean bill of health. Krystian Mapapalangi and Jayden Brailey both have issues to deal with in the lead up to Round 1 and may miss, but they won’t be out for long.

Bet on the Knights to make the top eight @ $2.15 with PlayUp

Gold Coast Titans

Could this be the season that the Gold Coast Titans, at long, long last, bring it all together? Probably not to the extent to actually challenge at the top end of the ladder – that would require an extraordinary improvement – but in terms of making the finals they are very capable of being in the mix this season. It’s now been 13 years since they’ve finished higher than eighth, with that solitary finals appearance coming in 2021, but since then they dropped back to finish 13th and then 14th. But despite that drop in position on the ladder over the past two years, they did go from six wins to nine wins, and under the guise of an experienced new head coach there is a good chance they will notch up more wins this year. There is no doubting that the Titans have plenty of talent at their disposal; Tino Fa’asuamalaeaui and David Fifita make for a fearsome running duo, and with Des Hasler at the helm perhaps they will finally be able to get the kind of consistent performance that this team is capable of. They have got a pretty friendly start to the season which could very well enable them to hit the ground running, and with a little bit of confidence and the steady hand of a seasoned coach at the helm, it would be no surprise to see them playing finals this year. At pretty decent odds, they look like one of the better value bets to do it. 

  • What brings them here? The Titans haven’t really been challenging for finals the past couple of years, but their list is capable of doing so and with a new coach they may well demonstrate instant improvement.
  • What has changed? Des Hasler as head coach is a major in, and on the field he is joined by Keenan Palasia and Harley Smith-Shields. Kruise Leeming left for Wigan, but that aside there aren’t really any roster changes – perhaps that continuity will help their bid for a finals spot, too.
  • Injury update: Unfortunately there are a few names on the injury report in the lead up to the season for the Titans. David Fifita is one of them – he’s TBC with a pec issue, while Isaac Liu is also TBC with a knee at the time of writing. Jayden Campbell will miss close to the first month with a knee, too, while AJ Brimson, Brian Kelly and Kieran Foran will be borderline for Round 1. 

Bet on the Titans to make the top eight @ $2.75 with PlayUp

Canterbury Bulldogs

It’s been a long, slow rebuild for the Bulldogs, who have now failed to make the finals four seven consecutive years and haven’t won more than seven games in any of the last four seasons. Not a great start to an argument as to why they can play finals this year, but hear me out. The gradual turnover of this list now has head coach Cameron Ciraldi operating a team which is entirely his own, so he will be facing no shortage of pressure to get them to finally demonstrate some improvement this season. Last year was a big disappointment, there is no doubting that – after jumping from three wins in successive years to seven in 2022, 2023 was supposed to be a year in which they might at least give some hope to fans about a return to the finals, and a 3-2 start which included wins over the Storm and Cowboys did just that. Unfortunately, it didn’t last, and they gradually dropped down the NRL ladder to ultimately finish in 15th. Their consistency was, it’s safe to say, lacking – a prime example came in Rounds 18 and 19, when they lost 66-0 to the Knights then beat the Rabbitohs the next week. They have some ability, but have just too often been unable to show it on a consistent basis. A few savvy moves in the off-season should give this team a more hard-nosed edge, hopefully lifting their floor. They might not be world beaters, but this is a team which has shown it can match it with much more highly fancied opposition. If they can find a way to win the games that they are supposed to, there is some reason to believe the Bulldogs could be a bolter in 2024. Things could easily go the opposite way, too, but at long odds they aren’t without hope of making the finals. 

  • What brings them here? Nothing in the performance of the Bulldogs over the last few years suggests they are capable of being a finals side, but they have the capacity to improve a lot this year – whether that actually manifests, however, is anybody’s guess.
  • What has changed? There have been a lot of changes at the Bulldogs, unsurprisingly given their efforts last year. All of Jake Averillo, Corey Waddell, Kyle Flanagan, Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Paul Alamoti have gone elsewhere in the NRL while Luke Thompson and Jayden Okunbor headed overseas. Stephen Crichton is a huge pickup from the Panthers who could help to straighten this team out, while they also snared Jaeman Salmon from the reigning Premiers. Kurt Mann is a big get from the Knights, Jake Turpin and Drew Hutchison come across from the Roosters, Blake Taaffe from the Rabbitohs, Poasa Faamausili from the Dolphins, and Connor Tracey from the Sharks. 
  • Injury update: There are just two names on the injury list for the Bulldogs entering the season, though they both have indefinite return dates – Karl Oloapu is the first with a neck injury, while Ryan Sutton has a knee injury.

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the top eight @ $3.50 with PlayUp 

Canberra Raiders

The final team on this list – no, we’re not going to try to make a case for why the Tigers and Dragons could make the finals – is the Raiders, who despite coming off a finals appearance last year find themselves above only those two aforementioned battlers in the odds for the top eight. Given they’ve made the finals four out of the last five seasons, there is reason to believe they are value, though they will need to find a way to compensate for the loss of Jack Wighton, whose absence will significantly alter the way this team looks. Zac Hosking is a nice addition, but nonetheless the Raiders will be up against it to repeat their efforts from last year. Though they finished eighth, they enjoyed an incredible run of close games – of course, in part they deserve credit for their ability to consistently get the job done when it matters most, but a points differential of -137 was significantly worse than every other team in the top eight and all but four outside of it. That suggests that they overperformed, and it’s that assumption which has led to their $4.50 odds to make the finals once again this year. But while all of those concerns are valid and they are realistically probably a little behind many of the aforementioned teams, the fact remains that this has been a finals team for much of the past five years, and without too much having changed – Wighton obviously the main reason for the italics on the word ‘too’ – their long odds to make the eight again are somewhat tempting. 

  • What brings them here? The Raiders have been a consistent finals team for many years now, and whether they were really one of the top eight sides in the comp last year or not, the fact is that they made the finals.
  • What has changed? As mentioned, Jack Wighton’s loss is a huge one, while Harley Smith-Shields and Matt Frawley have also gone elsewhere and Jarrod Croker has retired. Zac Hosking comes across from the Panthers and is joined by Simi Sasagi, Kaeo Weekes and Morgan Smithies from Wigan.
  • Injury update: Corey Harawira-Naera remains out indefinitely, while Corey Horsburgh is suspended until Round 4 and Seb Kris until Round 2.

Bet on the Raiders to make the top eight @ $4.50 with PlayUp 

Best Outsider Prediction to make the Top 8 in 2024

There is reason to think most of the teams above are capable of playing finals, but we are trying to find value. The top two listed are certainly the best chance and both the Warriors and the Cowboys would be disappointed not to make the top eight, but I’m going to hunt for a little more value. The Knights are very tempting to take given how they ended last season, but at even longer odds I really like the Titans. They have got the talent to play finals footy, but in the past have lacked the consistency. With Des Hasler in charge, 2024 could be the year when they finally start to put it together on a more regular basis. If they can avoid too many rogue losses to poor teams, this is the kind of side which is capable of winning more than enough games against sides which are perhaps more highly fancied than they are – a recipe which will see them at the very least challenging for a spot in the finals. 

James is a sports writer from Melbourne, and has contributed to a variety of publications covering a range of sports including basketball, cricket, Australian Rules, golf and surfing to name a few. An avid fan of all of the above and more, James’ downtime is spent falling ungracefully off his surfboard, turning over footies and playing an out of tune guitar.

Solid Odds & Regularly Updated Promotions