AFL 2024 Round 4 – Betting tips & Predictions

Aside from a couple of outliers at the bottom of the ladder, the AFL is an incredibly close competition at the moment, and Round 3 was representative of that. Across the eight games just four favourites won, with the Magpies getting their first win of the season in a high stakes game in Brisbane, the Bombers knocking off the Saints, the Demons beating the Power in Adelaide before the Tigers beat the Swans in the biggest upset of them all. The league now heads to Adelaide for the second incarnation of the Gather Round, which kicks off with a big game between the Crows and Demons at Adelaide Oval on Thursday night and will see all nine games take place across the City of Churches. Below, we preview each match set to take place in Round 4 of the 2024 AFL season.

2024 was a year that promised plenty for the Crows, and while there is still plenty of time for them to fulfil that promise, they will want to turn things around pretty quickly. They’ve lost their first three games and haven’t looked particularly good in any of them, and perhaps most concerning has been an inability to do what so defined them last year – score. They haven’t scored more than 77 points in a game so far this season and have scored more points than only the hapless Eagles, and they’ll have a hard time turning around that narrative this weekend against one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Demons have been the forgotten team in the Premiership discussion courtesy largely of a tumultuous off-season, but the fact remains that they have been a top four team for three consecutive years, and have one of the best midfields and defences in the league. Over the past three weeks, however, they have reminded the football world that they are still well and truly in the Premiership window, knocking off the Bulldogs and Hawks comfortably before beating Port in Adelaide last weekend in a high quality game of footy. With two consecutive games in Adelaide they will remain interstate throughout the week, and having had to do that they would be right to feel aggrieved that they are one of the two teams having to play an Adelaide-based side during Gather Round, when all the other teams are playing at a neutral venue. Making matters worse, they will do so off a five-day break. Those are a couple of tough factors to overcome, but there is no denying how well they played last week, and how poorly the Crows have played so far this year. The Crows are certainly a chance on their home turf and have plenty to play for, but the Demons can eke out a win in a competitive affair to kick off Round 4.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$1.62
	Demons 1-39	$2.40
	Under 168.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: B: J.Worrell, J.Borlase, B.Smith HB: M.Hinge, J. Butts, M.Michalanney C: L.Sholl, J.Dawson - C, C.Jones HF: J.Soligo, I.Rankine, J.Rachele F: L.Pedlar, D.Fogarty, T.Walker FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, M.Crouch I/C: C.Burgess, B.Keays, L.Murphy, M. Keane, N.McHenry EMG: L.Nankervis, S.Berry, E.Himmelberg

Melbourne Demons: B: J.McVee, S. May, J. Lever HB: T.Rivers, T.McDonald, C.Salem C: E.Langdon, C.Petracca, C.Windsor HF: T.Sparrow, B.Fritsch, K.Pickett F: A.Neal-Bullen, J.van Rooyen, K.Chandler FOLL: M.Gawn - C, J.Viney, C.Oliver I/C: J.Billings, M.Hore, H.Petty, B. Howes, B.Brown EMG: B.Laurie, A.Tomlinson, T. Woewodin

It’s safe to say that the Lions’ start to the season hasn’t been ideal. After going down in heartbreaking fashion in last year’s Grand Final, they have lost their first three games of the season, last weekend’s coming by 20 points to the team that beat them in that Grand Final in the Magpies. The Lions played okay at times in that game but, as has been the case throughout their first three fixtures, were unable to maintain their best footy for long enough. Against the Magpies, that was invariably going to spell disaster, but this weekend they will likely get a little more rope. There are finally some signs of the Kangaroos’ direction forward with an increasing number of talented young players littering their lineup, but for the moment they are still a long way off the pace, and a 56-point loss to the Blues last weekend is probably the kind of result that we will become accustomed to seeing from them once again this season. Fortunately for them they don’t have to head to the Gabba to take on the Lions, but wherever this game is played it's hard to imagine it being particularly close. The Lions badly need a win, particularly with a tough stretch of games to come after this one, and they should be able to capitalise on a substantially inferior opponent with a big, and much needed, victory.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions -35.5	$1.90
	Lions 40+	$2.00
	Lions 25+	$1.50

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: B: B. Starcevich, J. Payne, R. Lester HB: D. Wilmot, H. Andrews, D. Zorko C: J. Fletcher, Z. Bailey, J. Berry HF: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage F: C. Rayner, J. Daniher, L. McCarthy FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale I/C: D. Robertson, C. Ah Chee, J. Lyons, N. Answerth, K. Lohmann

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: B. Scott, A. Corr, K. Dawso HB: H. Sheezel, T. Pink, Z. Fishe C: D. Tucker, L. Davies-Uniacke, C. McKerche HF: C. Zurhaar, J. Stephenson, T. Powel F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, Z. Duursm FOLL: T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, J. Simpki I/C: L. McDonald, D. Stephens, C. Comben, C. Lazzaro, E. Ford EMG: L. Shiels, B. Drury, H. Greenwood

The Power and the Bombers have both won two of their first three games of the season, but they endured contrasting fortunes last weekend, with the Bombers sneaking over the line against the Saints before the Power went down by seven points in a see-sawing affair with the Demons just hours later. The Bombers’ victory continued what has been a reasonably solid start to the season for them in Brad Scott’s second year at the helm, with a strong win over Hawthorn in Round 1 being followed up by a competitive loss to the Swans in Sydney the next week. But this will be a tough test for them. Though the Power lost last weekend, they showed their quality in what was a really good game of footy between two teams who have top four aspirations this year. Jason Horne-Francis will potentially be a welcome addition to the Power midfield, which should be able to outclass that of the Bombers. Essendon’s pick-ups during the off-season, the likes of Xavier Duursma – who will face his old team for the first time – as well as Todd Goldstein and Ben McKay, thus far appear to have made them a better team, but Port Adelaide in Adelaide is never an easy task. The Bombers should be able to be competitive, but the home side will likely be too strong in this one.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Power to win	$1.30
	Power 1-39	$2.20
	Over 178.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide Power: B: R.Burton, E.Ratugolea, B.Zerk-Thatcher HB: L.Jones, A.Aliir, D.Houston C: M.Bergman, W.Drew, T.Boak HF: D.Byrne-Jones, T.Marshall, C.Rozee - C F: J.Finlayson, C.Dixon, W.Rioli FOLL: I.Soldo, O.Wines, Z.Butters I/C: K.Farrell, J.Mead, J.Burgoyne, J. Horne-Francis, J.McEntee EMG: D.Williams, D.Visentini, T.McKenzie

Essendon Bombers: B: D.Heppell, B.McKay, J. Ridley HB: N.Martin, M.Redman, A.McGrath C: X.Duursma, D.Parish, J.Kelly HF: A.Perkins, K.Langford, J.Caldwell F: J.Gresham, J.Stringer, B.Hobbs FOLL: T.Goldstein, W.Setterfield, Z.Merrett - C I/C: S.Draper, N.Cox, J.Laverde, H. Jones, N. Hind EMG: E.Tsatas, A. Roberts, Z. Menzie

• The Lions have won six consecutive games against the Kangaroos, the last two of which have been by 75 points (last year), and 108 points (the year prior). 
• The Swans and Eagles have played once in each of the past three years. Last year, Sydney won by 171 points, the year prior they won by 63 points, and in 2021 they won by 92 points.  
• The Cats have won five of their last six against the Bulldogs, the solitary exception coming in the final round of last year’s home and away season in what was a dead rubber for the Cats.  

Multi of the Week

The Eagles’ woes, which have seen them be one of the least competitive teams in AFL history over the past couple of seasons, will eventually come to an end, but unfortunately this doesn’t look likely to be the year when that happens. They once again have a number of injuries to key players – though not quite the carnage they endured last year – but more importantly, they simply don’t have the quality of players required to compete against virtually every other team in the AFL. Their results, which began with a 50-point loss in Round 1, have got progressively worse each week, with a 65-point loss following against the Giants in Round 2 and then a 76-point defeat at the hands of the Bulldogs last weekend. That trend looks likely to continue this weekend. The Swans have emerged as one of the favourites to win this year’s Premiership courtesy of a brilliant start to the season. Isaac Heeney’s move to the midfield to cover the long-term losses of Callum Mills and Luke Parker has seen him rapidly establish himself as one of the better mids in the game over the first month of the season, while Brodie Grundy has proven to be a welcome addition, Errol Gulden has continued to wreak havoc on a wing, and the absence of Lance Franklin has proven to be no great barrier to their scoring potential as they have averaged nearly 100 points per game through their first four of the season. Last weekend, they were far from their best as they went down in a surprise loss to the ferocious young Tigers, but if anything that will only sharpen their focus for this weekend’s game. Whether they’re at their best or not they should be giving the Eagles a good old walloping, and it would be no surprise to see the margin in this game near triple digits. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans 73+	$2.85
	Swans 40+	$1.45
	Swans -54.5	$1.90

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles: B: C. Jamieson, T. Barrass, J. Hun HB: B. Hough, J. McGovern, J. Jone C: L. Duggan, T. Kelly, A. Gaf HF: H. Reid, J. Waterman, N. Lon F: J. Petruccelle, J. Darling, J. Cripp FOLL: B. Williams, E. Yeo, R. Ginbe I/C: T. Cole, R. Maric, A. Witherden, J. Williams, L. Edwards EMG: C. Chesser, H. Johnston, H. Barnett

Sydney Swans: B: J. Lloyd, T. McCartin, N.Blakey HB: O. Florent, L. Melican, J. Jordon C: J. McInerney, C. Warner, B. Campbell HF: E. Gulden, L. McDonald, R. Fox F: W. Hayward, J. Amartey, T. Papley FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: M. Roberts, T. Adams, H. McLean, C. Mitchell, C. Warner EMG: P. Ladhams, J. Konstanty, A. Francis

Though the season is already a month old, there are already a number of teams for whom expectations have shifted. The Dockers are one of them. After a disappointing 2023 season, few had them pegged for a spot in the eight this year, but this remains a team that won 15 games just two seasons ago, and so far in 2024 they have looked far more like that team than the one which struggled throughout most of last year. They’ve won each of their first three games, and though it hasn’t been the toughest draw those wins haven’t been handed to them either. The first came in impressive fashion against the Lions while last week they knocked over the Crows with ease, and in all three of their wins the defensive strength which has defined them over the past few years has been accompanied by a much more free-flowing game style than what they displayed last season. With that start to the season, they have put themselves right back into the mix as a potential finals team, but they have a tough couple of weeks ahead of them, beginning with the Blues this week. Alongside the Dockers, Carlton is one of just four undefeated teams, having also beaten Freo and North Melbourne and with the Tigers as their third victim. How much can be read into those victories, however, remains to be seen. The Lions comeback was super impressive, though a five-point win over a Tigers team which had three players ruled out of the rest of the game by half-time wouldn’t have inspired quite so much confidence in long-suffering Blues fans, and against the Kangaroos they did what they have to do. For both teams, this will be their biggest test of the season excluding their wins over the Lions. It will be a fascinating battle between a team with one of the best midfields and two of the premier key forwards in the comp in the Blues, and a defensive juggernaut in the Dockers. Fremantle will be looking to strange the Blues’ ball movement and will likely make life difficult for Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay as a result, but they are each more than capable of doing damage regardless. The Dockers will look to make this a dour, low-scoring affair, but even if they manage that the Blues should be able to just enough to make it four from four and hand Fremantle their first loss of the season.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.67
	Blues 1-39	$2.35
	Under 165.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Fremantle Dockers: B: J.Aish, A.Pearce - C, J.Draper HB: E.Hughes, L.Ryan, J.Clark C: M.Johnson, N.Fyfe, H.Young HF: M.Taberner, J.Treacy, S.Switkowsk F: T.Emmett, J.Amiss, M.Walter FOLL: L.Jackson, C.Serong, A.Brayshaw I/C: M.Frederick, J.Sharp, B.Banfield, J.O’Meara, B.Walker EMG: C.Simpson, P.Voss, L.Reidy

Carlton Blues: B: L. Young, J.Weitering, Z.Williams HB: A.Saad, M.McGovern, N.Newman C: O.Hollands, P.Cripps - C, B.Acres HF: M.Owies, H.McKay, M.Kennedy F: E.Hollands, C.Curnow, L.Fogarty FOLL: T.De Koning, A.Cerra, G.Hewett I/C: J.Boyd, J.Carroll, M.Cottrell, O.Fantasia, J. Martin EMG: C. Durdin, M.Pittonet, J.Binns

The Doggies got their season off to a dreadful start against the Demons, putting in the kind of effort which has made them such an easy target for critics over the past couple of years. But they bounced back strongly the next week with a big win over the Suns, and after knocking off the Eagles without having to break too much of a sweat in Round 4, they now found themselves at 2-1. Nobody doubts what this team can do at its best, but of much greater concern is their ability to maintain that level on a consistent basis. Against the Cats, they will have to. Geelong have been written off by many both this year and in years past, but time and time again they prove those critics wrong, and a 3-0 start to 2024 suggests they’re well placed to continue that trend. They haven’t set the world on fire by any means with a close win against the Saints, a solid one against the Crows and a six-goal defeat of the Hawks on Easter Monday, but the old heads that have served them so well for so long are continuing to defy Father Time, while a new crop of youngsters is, yet again, poised to keep them competitive in the years to come. As for this year, their ceiling remains to be seen, but the early signs are positive for the most consistently competitive team of the past 15 years. At their best the Bulldogs are more than capable of winning this one, but the Cats have a great mixture of experience and youth and have looked very solid through their first three weeks of the season. This one could be close, but it’s hard to go past the Cats to notch up their fourth consecutive win.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cats to win	$1.80
	Cats -2.5	$1.91
	Cats 1-39	$2.35

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs: B: B. Dale, L. Jones, B. Williams HB: L. Bramble, B. Khamis, J. Johannise C: H. Gallagher, A. Treloar, E. Richard HF: R. Sanders, A. Naughton, C. Weightma F: R. West, J. Ugle-Hagan, C. Daniel FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli, T. Liberatore I/C: L. Vandermeer, S. Darcy, T. Duryea, J. Macrae, C. Poulter EMG: O. Baker, R. Lobb, J. O’Donnell

Geelong Cats: B: T. Stewart, S. De Koning, J. Kolodjasnij HB: Z. Guthrie, J. Henry, M. Duncan C: O. Henry, T. Bruhn, Z. Tuohy HF: B. Close, T. Stengle, T. Hawkins F: J. Cameron, G. Miers, M. Holmes FOLL: R. Stanley, T. Atkins, M. Blicavs I/C: O. Mullin, B. Parfitt, J. Clark, O. Dempsey, J. Bowes EMG: Z. Tuohy, R. Stanley, S. Mannagh

The AFL’s two newest teams have had contrasting fortunes since entering the league, but this year they look likely to be as collectively competitive as they ever have. The Giants have emerged as a genuine Premiership contender – no surprises given how they finished last year and how close they were to making a second Grand Final in their history – and are one of just four remaining undefeated teams. Granted two of those games have been against cellar dwellers North Melbourne and West Coast, but they could hardly have been more impressive in their opening round victory against the reigning Premiers. The Suns, meanwhile, also enjoyed a super impressive start to the season under three-time Premiership coach Damian Hardwick, knocking off his old side in the Tigers in their opening game before knocking off the Crows with a lot more ease than the six-point margin at the final siren would suggest. Unfortunately they were unable to back that up in Ballarat when they were pummelled by the Bulldogs, and a similar kind of performance will result in a similar result against a team as good as the Giants. It’s very hard to trust the Suns given how consistently they’ve started a season well and then flailed over the course of the season, but the contested ball winning ability of this team – led very ably by Matt Rowell – gives this side an edge that it hasn’t previously had. Hardwick is not the kind of coach to accept the mediocrity which has plagued this team for so long and they should be a legitimate finals contender this season, but this will be a very difficult test for them. The Giants have had a couple of easy kills in a row and this will certainly pose a much sterner test, but they should still be good enough to make it four from four.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Giants 1-39	$2.15
	Over 169.5 total match points	$1.91
	Giants to win	$1.37

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Suns: B: B.Uwland, C.Ballard, S.Collins HB: A.Sexton, W.Powell, C.Budarick C: B.Fiorini, T.Miller - C, B.Ellis HF: B.Ainsworth, B.Humphrey, T.Berry F: B.King, J.Lukosius, J.Walter FOLL: J. Witts, N.Anderson, M.Rowell I/C: S.Flanders, N.Holman, B.Long, D.Swallow, L.Casboult EMG: R.Atkins, M.Andrew, S.Clohesy

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: H.Perryman, S.Taylor, C.Idun HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash C: J.Wehr, J.Kelly, F.Callaghan HF: B.Daniels, J.Riccardi, T.Bedford F: T.Greene - C, J.Hogan, C.Brown FOLL: K.Briggs, S.Coniglio, T.Green I/C: X.O’Halloran, H.Thomas, H.Himmelberg, A.Cadman, J.Peatling EMG: T.McMullin, R.Angwin, L.Keeffe

The Tigers are on the board in 2024, and what a way to do it. Expectations were fairly low for the former juggernaut entering the season and three consecutive losses to start the year did nothing to change that, though in reality a tight defeat at the hands of the Blues and a competitive loss to the Power with a raft of injuries to key players were far from disastrous. But winless they remained, and it looked like staying that way when they took on the undefeated Swans last Sunday. Instead, they turned on the pressure and managed to outlast a far more highly fancied team, snatching their first win of the season 82-77. Unfortunately, it once again came at a cost. Having already lost their primary key defender in Josh Gibcus for the season with an ACL, both Tom Lynch and Noah Balta – their two key forwards – suffered mid-to-long-term injuries, meaning they will enter this week’s clash with the Saints severely undermanned in the key position posts. The Saints are not brimming with elite key position players and won’t be able to take advantage of that fact as much as some other sides, but Max King has proven a thorn in the side of the Tigers in the past and should be looking to have a day out on his return from a one-game suspension this week. His absence last week could very well have been the difference, with the Saints going down by four points in a game they probably should have won against the Bombers, but while that took them to 1-2 they have been pretty solid so far this year with a close loss to the Cats and an impressive win over the Magpies. The Tigers’ chances have certainly taken a blow as a result of the aforementioned injuries, but they have proven themselves to be a competitive and plucky unit so far this season. This is a big game for both teams early in the season, and in a tight one, the young Tigers can sneak over the line at long odds for a second consecutive upset win. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Tigers to win	$3.50
	Tigers +20.5	$1.91
	Tigers 1-39	$3.80

Predicted Squads

Richmond Tigers: B: T. Brown, T. Young, B. Miller HB: J. Short, D. Rioli, N. Vlastuin C: K. McIntosh, T. Taranto, M. Pickett HF: S. Campbell, R. Mansell, T. Sonsie F: S. Ryan, S. Bolton, J, Koschitzke FOLL: T. Nankervis, T. Dow, J. Ross I/C: N. Broad, J. Graham, M. Rioli, M. Lefau, S. Banks EMG: H. Ralphsmith, K. McAuliffe, S. Naismith

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, Z. Cordy, C. Wilkie HB: L. Stocker, J. Sinclair, N. Wanganeen-Milera C: R. Byrnes, S. Ross, B. Hill HF: J. Higgins, M. Phillipou, M. Owens F: L. Collard, A. Caminiti, T. Membrey FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele, M. Windhager I/C: Z. Jones, D. Butler, R. Bonner, C. Sharman, A. Hastie EMG: A. Schoenmaker, H. Garcia, D. Wilson

After a winless three-week start to the season that must have felt like months for the Magpies, they finally got their first win of the season last Thursday night, and it came in impressive fashion on the road against the Lions. Now on the board in 2024, they’ll be expecting to continue their ascent up the ladder with another one against the Hawks. Of course, the last time these two sides met the Hawks played probably their best game of last season and beat them easily, but it’s hard to see lightning striking twice. The Hawks have plenty of reason to be optimistic moving forward and have a lot of young talent on their list, but their performances so far this season suggest that they still need a little more time before they can truly challenge for a spot in the top eight. They were really poor against the Demons in Round 2 after going down to the Bombers the week before, and while they were far from disgraced against the Cats on Easter Monday, they were clearly outclassed for most of a game which they ultimately lost by six goals. The Hawks are the kind of team, as they were last season, which will probably beat a few good teams this year, and sides like Collingwood need to be on high alert against them. But the Magpies took a big step towards regaining their mojo last week, and continue that form with a comfortable win in the last game of Round 4.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies -23.5	$1.90
	Over 168.5 total match points	$1.91
	Magpies 40+	$2.70

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: B.Maynard, J.Howe, B.Frampton HB: W.Hoskin-Elliott, I.Quaynor, D.Moore - C C: N.Daicos, S.Pendlebury, J.Daicos HF: P.Lipinski, L.Schultz, B.Mihocek F: B.Hill, J.Elliott, B.McCreery FOLL: M.Cox, J.De Goey, T.Mitchell  I/C: J.Noble, D.Cameron, F.Macrae, J.Crisp, R.McInnes EMG: L.Sullivan, H.Harrison, O.Markov 

Hawthorn Hawks : B: B. Hardwick, S. Frost, J. Sicily HB: M. D’Ambrosio, K. Amon, J. Weddle C: J. Impey, C. Nash, C. Macdonald HF: L. Breust, M. Chol, H. Hustwaite F: J. Ginnivan, J. Gunston, D. Moore FOLL: L. Meek, J. Newcombe, C. Mackenzie I/C: J. Scrimshaw, J. Worpel, J. Ward, F. Maginness, H. Morrison EMG: M. Ramsden, S. Butler, J. Serong

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