AFL 2024 Round 3 – Betting tips & Predictions

Two and a half rounds into the 2024 AFL season there is already plenty to talk about, not least the fact that last year’s two Grand Finalists haven’t yet won a game between them. Making things even juicier, the Pies will head to Brisbane for a Grand Final rematch this Thursday night, meaning one of them will remain winless heading into Round 4. The long weekend means that the nine games scheduled over Easter will take place over five days, starting with that Lions vs Magpies clash and ending with the traditional Easter Monday game which has delivered so many memorable moments between the Hawks and the Cats. Take a look below at our preview for those two games, as well as the seven others sandwiched in between them.

Last year’s Grand Final was one of the best in recent memory, with the first half in particular seeing a number of brilliant goals across two very, very high-quality quarters. So far in 2024, neither team has been able to reproduce anything resembling that kind of form. The Lions went close for a half when opening up a 46-point lead in Round Zero against the Blues, but they relinquished that and were beaten by the Dockers the next week before their bye last week. Things have been even worse for the Magpies. They have looked a shadow of their former selves across their three games, being comprehensively beaten by both Sydney teams before losing to St. Kilda by 15 points last weekend. It’s a long season and they both have plenty of time to turn things around, but the losses are already piling up and with a couple more, top four will be just about out of the question. The Magpies, in particular, are facing a huge amount of pressure having lost an extra game than the Lions. Expect both teams to come out firing, and even if their respective form lines are poor, they each have plenty of scope for improvement. If they can find it this Thursday, we are in for a hell of a game, and with both sides desperately needing a win there should be plenty of spice from the opening bounce. It would be no surprise to see the Magpies come away from Brisbane with a win, but the Gabba was a fortress for the Lions last year, and after not losing a single game on their home turf in 2023 they can avoid going 0-2 there so far this year, and resign the Pies to a 0-4 start.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.38
	Lions 1-24	$3.40
	Lions 1-39	$2.20

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: B: B. Starcevich, D. Gardiner, R. Lester HB: C. McKenna, H. Andrews - C, D. Wilmot C: J. Fletcher, C. Rayner, J. Berry HF: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage F: L. McCarthy, J. Daniher, D. Zorko FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale I/C: K. Lohmann, D. Robertson, T. Doedee, J. Lyons EMG: J. Tunstill, D. Fort, C. Ah Chee 

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, J. Howe, B. Frampton HB: O. Markov, I. Quaynor, D. Moore – C C: S. Sidebottom, S. Pendlebury, J. Daicos HF: L. Schultz, B. Mihocek, H. Harrison F: B. Hill, J. Elliott, B. McCreery FOLL: D. Cameron, J. De Goey, N. Daicos I/C: P. Lipinski, T. Mitchell, F. Macrae, J. Crisp, R. McInnes EMG: J. Noble, W. Hoskin-Eliott, H. Harrsion

It’s taken a long time for the AFL to take the step of playing footy on Good Friday, as it has for the Kangaroos to lock themselves into a permanent public holiday fixture. Now we have both, with the Roos vs the Blues trying to establish itself as an annual Good Friday matchup. But the Kangaroos have some work to do to show that they deserve to stay there. Having won four games or less in each of the past four years and boasting one of the smaller supporter bases in the league, they’re not exactly a major drawcard to start with. In fairness to them, however, last year they were relatively competitive in this game, going down by 23 points while actually having two more scoring shots than the Blues. They’ve also shown some reasonable signs over their first two games of this season, and though they have still lost their two games by 39 and 26 points respectively, one was against the Giants in Sydney and in the other they looked good in the first half before collapsing in a heap in the second. But the Blues are trying to establish themselves as a legitimate Premiership contender, and the Roos are not the sort of side who should be giving them too much trouble. Carlton are probably lucky to have won each of their first two games – those wins have been by a cumulative total of 6 points – but they should have no problems making it three from three on what should be a very good Friday for them.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues -33.5	$1.90
	Blues 40+	$2.05
	Blues 25+	$1.50

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos : B: L. McDonald, A. Corr, K. Dawson HB: H. Sheezel, T. Pink, B. Scott C: L. Shiels, L. Davies-Uniacke, C. McKercher HF: C. Zurhaar, T. Sellers, C. Lazzaro F: J. Stephenson, N. Larkey - C, Z. Duursma FOLL: T. Xerri, T. Powell, J. Simpkin I/C: D. Tucker, G. Wardlaw, E. Ford, Z. Fisher, P. Curtis EMG: D. Stephens, B. Drury, H. Greenwood

Carlton Blues : B: Z. Williams, L. Young, B. Kemp HB: A. Saad, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: M. Cottrell, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: J. Martin, C. Curnow, O. Fantasia F: M. Owies, H. McKay, O. Hollands FOLL: T. De Koning, A. Cerra, G. Hewett I/C: J. Boyd, C. Durdin, M. Kennedy, L. Fogarty, D. Cunningham EMG: J. Binns, M. Pittonet, A. Moir

The Dockers entered this season with relatively limited expectations on their shoulders from the football world after a disappointing 2023, while the Crows, having improved drastically last year, entered it with high hopes of breaking through for a first finals appearance since 2017. But while the Dockers have won their first two games of the season, including a victory over the reigning Grand Finals in the Lions, the Crows have dropped their first two, falling first to the Suns in a disappointing showing and then the Cats last week. The pressure is quickly mounting, and if they go 0-3 it will reach fever pitch. Though the Dockers were poor in the first half last week against the Kangaroos, they bounced back emphatically in the second half, and they should be confident in their ability to make it three from three on their home turf, particularly given the Crows’ record on the road in recent times. Since Matthew Nicks took over as head coach in 2020, Adelaide have won just nine out of their 39 away games, and the majority of those wins have been against bad teams. The Dockers aren’t that. They’ve got some work to do to remind the football world that they won 15 games just a couple of years ago, but they have started out the year in a positive fashion. They can win their third game on the trot and put a whole bunch of pressure on the Crows in the process with a good win on Friday night.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dockers to win	$1.50
	Dockers 1-39	$2.20
	Dockers 1-24	$3.20

Predicted Squads

Fremantle Dockers : B: J. Aish, A. Pearce - C, J. Clark HB: L. Ryan, E. Hughes, H. Young C: M. Johnson, N. Fyfe, J. Sharp HF: M. Frederick, J. Treacy, B. Banfield F: S. Switkowski, J. Amiss, M. Walters FOLL: L. Jackson, C. Serong, A. Brayshaw I/C: M. Taberner, J. Draper, B. Walker, T. Emmett, J. O’Meara EMG: N. Erasmus, W. Brodie, L. Reidy

Adelaide Crows : B: J. Worrell, J. Butts, B. Smith HB: W. Milera, M. Keane, M. Michalanney C: B. Keays, J. Dawson - C, C. Jones HF: J. Soligo, I. Rankine, J. Rachele F: C. Burgess, D. Fogarty, T. Walker FOLL: R. O’Brien, R. Laird, M. Crouch I/C: L. Pedlar, S. Berry, E. McHenry, M. Hinge, L. Murphy EMG: L. Gollant, P. Parnell, J. Borlase

• The Lions’ one-point loss to Carlton in Opening Round was their first loss at the Gabba since the final round of the 2022 home and away season, but the Magpies haven’t lost by more than 40 points since May of that same year. 
• The Crows were 2-8 outside of Adelaide last season, with those two wins coming against the Hawks and the Eagles – both bottom three sides.  
• Though the Hawks have managed to win more games against the Cats in recent years than most would expect, two of the last three wins the Cats have had against them have been by more than ten goals.  

Multi of the Week

After a solid win in their opening game against the Hawks, the Bombers were competitive against the red-hot Swans in Round 2 before conceding a bunch of late goals and ultimately going down by 30 points. That loss may come at a cost, too, with Peter Wright referred directly to the tribunal for a hit which has, once again, divided the football world. The Saints, meanwhile, put in one of the better showings for a long time. In a home game at the MCG against the Pies, they were much too good for the reigning Premiers and the 15-point margin at the final siren could have been more had they not conceded a few late goals. If they can continue to play like that then they will likely once again be playing finals footy this year, though they teased last year in the first couple of months of the season, looking like one of the better teams in the league before just limping home to the finals. Their win came at a cost, too, with medium term injuries to both Mason Wood and Liam Henry coming out of the game. They will both be significant absentees from their side this week, but based on last Thursday’s performance the Saints should be good enough to cover them. These two teams both have a bit to prove this year as they attempt to establish themselves as finals contenders, but the Saints have been there before and are a little further along in their development route than the Dons. This could be a tight one, but the Saints should be winning it.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Saints to win	$1.60
	Saints 1-24	$3.40
	Saints 1-39	$2.20

Predicted Squads

Essendon Bombers : B: A. McGrath, B. McKay, D. Heppell HB: J. Laverde, J. Kelly, M. Redman C: N. Martin, J. Caldwell, X. Duursma HF: S. Durham, K. Langford, A. Perkins F: J. Stringer, N. Caddy, J. Gresham FOLL: T. Goldstein, W. Setterfield, Z. Merrett – C I/C: S. Draper, B. Hobbs, N. Hind, N. Cox, E. Tsatas

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, Z. Cordy, C. Wilkie HB: L. Stocker, J. Sincalir, N. Wanganeen-Milera C: B. Crouch, S. Ross, B. Hill HF: D. Wilson, D. Butler M. Owens F: C. Sharman, M. King, T. Membrey FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, M. Phillipou 
I/C: J. Higgins. M. Windhager, Z. Jones, R. Byrnes, R. Bonner EMG: L. Collard, H. Garcia, T. Campbell 

The Power and the Demons have been two of the most consistently good sides in the league over the past few years, each finishing in the top four three times in the past four seasons, and both will have expectations of a similar finish in 2024. Each of them has started the season solidly, the Power with two wins from two games and the Dees with two wins from three, but neither has yet beaten a team of the quality of their opponent in this game. The Power have had a friendly little start to the season, first taking care of the Eagles in Round 1 without needing to expend too much gas, and then running away from an injury-riddled Tigers team in the second half in Round 2. The Demons’ year started poorly with a disappointing loss to the in-form Swans in Opening Round, but since then they have knocked off the Bulldogs and the Hawks with ease. They looked imposing in both of those wins, conceding just 14 goals across the two games, while their midfield has been back to its electric best, giving their forward line – the weakest link in their team – more than enough opportunities to put up a decent score. Unfortunately Steven May will be absent from this game after he broke a few ribs against the Hawks, while Jake Lever may join him and a fairly hefty cohort of others on the sidelines. Those two will be massive outs against a team with as many forward line weapons as the Power have, but even without them the Demons look like decent value here. Port Adelaide certainly didn’t set the world on fire against a very young Richmond team last weekend, and after two soft wins this will be a much more difficult challenge. They lost just two games at home all of last season, but one of those came against the Demons. This should be a really high quality game and one which could easily be a preview of a matchup to come late in September, and in an upset the Demons can sneak over the line by a couple of goals.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$2.65
	Demons +13. 5	$1.91
	Demons 1-39	$3.20

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide Power : B: R. Burton, E. Ratugolea, B. Zerk-Thatcher HB: L. Jones, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: M. Bergman, W. Drew, T. Boak HF: D. Byrne-Jones, T. Marshall, C. Rozee – C F: J. Finlayson, C. Dixon, W. Rioli FOLL: I. Soldo, O. Wines, Z. Butters I/C: K. Farrell, J. Mead, J. Burgoyne, D. Williams, F. Evans

Melbourne Demons : B: J. McVee, A. Tomlinson, B. Howes HB: T. Rivers, J. Lever, C. Salem C: E. Langdon, C. Petracca, A. Neal-Bullen HF: T. Sparrow, B. Brown, K. Pickett F: B. Fritsch, J. van Rooyen, K. Chandler FOLL: M. Gawn - C, J. Viney, J. Billings I/C: C. Windsor, C. Oliver, T. McDonald, M. Hore, H. Petty 

For the past couple of seasons, the Eagles have been four free points and a big percentage booster for most teams, but last year the Bulldogs were one of the very select few teams who weren’t able to capitalise on the matchup. And there were some major repercussions from that performance, with the woeful seven-point loss in the second last game of the home and away season directly costing them a spot in the finals; had they won, they would have finished sixth and enjoyed a home Elimination Final, but courtesy of the loss they finished out of the eight on percentage. That game highlighted as well as any the inconsistency which has plagued the Bulldogs for so long; at their best a dangerous, high-scoring team with an ability to move the ball as well as any other team in the league, they have not been able to produce that kind of footy for long enough, and the gap between their floor and their ceiling is far too high. Already they’ve demonstrated that this season, too, being flogged in an uninspiring effort against the Demons in Round 1 before bouncing back with an emphatic win over an in-form Suns team the next week. For Luke Beveridge and his chargers, this has to be a win, and ideally a big one. The Eagles have a handful of good young players coming through, not least number one draft pick Harley Reid, but this will still be a painful year for them. Two 50+ point losses to start the season will likely be the norm, and the Bulldogs should be able to inflict a similarly hefty defeat on them this Sunday.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs 40+	$1.60
	Bulldogs 25+	$1.35
	Bulldogs 60+	$2.35

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs : B: L. Bramble, L. Jones, C. Daniel HB: E. Richards, B. Khamis, J. Johannisen C: H. Gallagher, A. Treloar, B. Williams HF: R. Sanders, A. Naughton, C. Weightman F: R. West, J. Ugle-Hagan, L. Vandermeer FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli - C, T. Liberatore I/C: O. Baker, B. Dale, C. Daniel, S. Darcy, J. Macrae

West Coast Eagles : B: C. Jamieson, T. Barrass, B. Hough HB: J. Jones, J. McGovern, T. Cole C: L. Duggan - C, H. Reid, R. Ginbey HF: J. Cripps, J. Petruccelle, L. Edwards F: N. Long, J. Waterman, T. Brockman FOLL: B. Williams, E. Yeo, T. Kelly I/C: J. Hunt, C. Chesser, J. Darling, A. Gaff, A. Witherden EMG: R. Maric. H. Barnett, T. Dewar

The Tigers weren’t widely expected to have a great year, and things have not been made any easier for them with a host of injuries to best 22 players in the first couple of rounds of the season. They were disappointing in Opening Round but gallant in defeat against Carlton with three players injured before half-time, and six forced outs for their next game against the Power meant they were always destined to struggle. Their young team managed to outplay Port for the first half and was in the game going into the final quarter, but as was expected the Power were able to run away with it late. The Tigers might get a couple of players back this weekend but will still be fielding a pretty inexperienced team, and against the in-form Swans that doesn’t bode well for them. Sydney were handed a difficult start to the season by the AFL but have handled it with aplomb, knocking off first the Demons and then the Pies before beating the Bombers by five goals in a heated affair last weekend. Compared to at least the first two of those teams, the Tigers shouldn’t pose nearly as difficult a challenge, particularly with their outs. Richmond has been competitive against good teams the last couple of weeks and should be able to avoid a blowout, but the Swans will likely be too good.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.28
	Swans 1-39	$2.20
	Tigers +11.5 first half line	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Richmond Tigers : B: D. Grimes, B. Miller, N. Vlastuin HB: J. Short, J. Trezise, D. Rioli C: M. Pickett, T. Taranto, K. McIntosh HF: S. Campbell, S. Bolton, R. Mansell F: N. Balta, D. Martin, T. Lynch FOLL: T. Nankervis - C, T. Sonsie, L. Baker I/C: T. Brown, M. Rioli Jr, J. Clarke, K. McAuliffe, J. Ross

Sydney Swans : B: L. Melican, T. McCartin, D. Rampe – C HB: N. Blakey, O. Florent, J. Lloyd C: J. McInerney, Ch. Warner, J. Jordon HF: E. Gulden, L. McDonald, T. Papley F: W. Hayward, J. Amartey, H. McLean FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: M. Roberts, C. Mitchell, B. Campbell, Co. Warner, S. Wicks EMG: P. Ladhams, A. Sheldrick, J. Hamling

The Hawks and the Cats played out one of the best rivalries of the century during the heights of each of their powers, and the Easter Monday clash was the scene of many of the thrilling endings which have been so common in their games. After the Hawks surprised the footy world by beating the Cats in the 2008 Grand Final, the so-called ‘Kennett Curse’ ensued and saw Geelong win 11 consecutive games against Hawthorn, nine of them by 10 points or less, before the Hawks finally broke it with their own five-point win in the 2013 Preliminary Final. It was a remarkable stretch of games, and though the height of that rivalry has since passed and there has been a fairly hefty gap between the two teams over the past few years, they have still played out a number of tight games in recent times. Two of the last three games between the two have been decided by two goals or less, and interestingly, despite the Cats being a much more successful team than the Hawks for a number of years, the past eight games between the sides are split at four wins apiece. Many expect the Cats to tumble, but they have continuously managed to stave off the seemingly inevitable fall which would often accompany a list of their age, and two wins against finals contenders to start the year suggests they’re capable of continuing that trend this year. The Hawks, meanwhile, are expected to improve after a few impressive results in the back half of last year, but a poor start to the year and a particularly disappointing effort against the Dees last week suggests they still have a fair way to go. They are better than they showed last week and in a marquee game they should bring a far better effort this Easter Monday, but the Cats should still be too good.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cats to win	$1.34
	Cats -18.5	$1.90
	Cats 25+	$2.00

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks : B:  J. Weddle, S. Frost, J. Sicily – C HB: J. Impey, J. Scrimshaw, M. D’Ambrosio C: K. Amon, D. Moore, C. Macdonald HF: J. Ginnivan, M. Lewis, C. Nash F: L. Breust, M. Chol, S. Butler FOLL: N. Reeves, J. Newcombe, J. Worpel I/C: C. Mackenzie, J. Gunston, H. Hustwaite, F. Maginness, B. Hardwick EMG: M. Ramsden, J. Ward, N. Watson 

Geelong Cats : B: T. Stewart, S. De Koning, J. Kolodjashnij HB: Z. Tuohy, J. Henry, M. O’Connor C: M. Blicavs, M. Duncan, M. Holmes HF: B. Close, T. Stengle, T. Hawkins F: J. Cameron, G. Miers, O. Henry FOLL: R. Stanley, J. Clark, B. Parfitt I/C: Z. Guthrie, O. Mullin, M. Knevitt, O. Dempsey, S. Mannagh

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