NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | May 1

The NBA playoffs continue on Thursday with a couple of huge games, the Rockets hosting the Warriors in the first before the Timberwolves head to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers in the next. Both home teams are fighting to keep their seasons alive having each gone down 3-1 in thrilling Game 4s, and on their respective home floors both are favoured to do just that. But we won’t be focusing on results, instead looking at player props featuring a couple of big names across those two games. Take a look at our three best NBA tips of the day below.

Jimmy Butler to score 25+ points @ $4.10 with PlayUp

Playoff Jimmy has well and truly returned, and NBA betting sites have not yet caught up. The Warriors’ newest acquisition is averaging 17 points per game since arriving in Golden State, so his points line of 19.5 is technically an increase on that. But it’s nowhere near enough to cater for the level he is playing at right now. Butler started his current run just on the eve of the playoffs, averaging 30 points per game over his last four of the regular season, and so far he has continued at a similar level in the postseason. Of course, it’s been an interrupted first round series for Butler, who was injured just 8 minutes into Game 2 and missed the rest of that game and Game 3. In the two others, however, he has scored 25 and 27, showing plenty of aggression offensively in both of them. That means that if we exclude that eight-minute Game 2, Butler has now scored at least 24 points in each of his last six games – and that 24-point effort came in only 28 minutes in a blowout against the Trail Blazers. In that time, Butler is averaging an impressive 28.7 points per game – a hell of a lot more than the 19.5-point line he’s been given. The over looks like as safe a 50/50 bet as you will find, but we’re going beyond that for some extra value. With PlayUp offering over $4 for him to score 25 points, a number he has got to within one of in each of his last six proper games, this value is too good to ignore and gives us a great chance at getting our day off to a winning start.

Jalen Green under 17.5 points @ $1.86 with QuestBet

Jalen Green has been an unmitigated disaster in this series. Well, in three of the four games he has – in the other he was the best player on the floor. In Game 2, the explosive guard scored 38 points on 13-25 shooting, hitting eight three-pointers on the way, to lead the Rockets to so far their solitary victory of the series. In the other three games, however, he has not got even close to that number of points – combined. Green, who averaged 21 points per game during the regular season, failed to reach double figures in Games 1, 3 and 4, and his inefficiency has led to a dramatic decrease in confidence and aggression. After going 3-15 in Game 1, he was 4-11 in Game 3 and then just 3-8 in Game 4, and what’s more coach Ime Udoka saw fit to keep him on the bench for nearly half of that last game. Green played only 25 minutes in that one, with his inability to contribute much except for a lot of ill-advised shots ultimately forcing the collective hand of his coaching staff. Green is an extremely capable scorer on his day and could easily fly past this number in the first half, as he demonstrated in Game 4. But on the balance of probabilities, it looks more likely than not that he will fail to contribute to the stats sheet all that much. The postseason has by and large overwhelmed the 23-year-old, and with the trust of his team in him waning over the course of this series he seems like a good chance to have another quiet game with the series on the line.

LeBron James over 1.5 steals @ $2.35 with Unibet

LeBron James is clearly not the dominant force he once was, but he remains one of the game’s best players even at 40 years of age, and while he doesn’t have the capacity to put it all together for four quarters all that regularly, he has still had a major say on this series. But while that’s no major surprise to anyone who has watched him this season, less would have seen his performance at the defensive end of the floor coming. His defensive in Game 4 were particularly noticeable, and while he did not contribute directly to the scoresheet in the final quarter, he caused plenty of problems for the Timberwolves at the other end of the floor. LeBron has been a quality defender at times in his career but is generally the opposite these days, but he remains capable of flicking a switch when necessary and appears to have done that this postseason. Steals and blocks are far from everything when it comes to defensive impact, but LeBron’s disruptiveness at that end of the floor has certainly been reflected in his steal and block numbers, and for the sake of this bet we will focus on the former. The four-time MVP has picked up 8 steals across the four games of this series at an average of 2 per game, including 3 in Game 4. That’s well above his season average of 1.0, and while it’s only from a small sample size, with the increased intensity that he is demonstrating at that end of the floor it’s not an unsustainable number. Despite that, betting agencies have him at well over even money to reach 2 steals again in this game. With the series on the line on their home floor, expect LeBron to once again look to set the tone at the defensive end, and at better than even money odds he looks like good value to pick up multiple steals for the fourth time in five games.