NBA 2024-25 Rookie of the Year (ROY) Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

After one of the highest quality battles for Rookie of the Year in recent memory last season, battled out between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, the 2024-25 race has not quite lived up to the high standards set by its predecessor. But what it may have lacked in quality, it has more than made up for in intrigue. This market has seen plenty of wild fluctuations through the course of the season and a number of different favourites, but as we near the playoffs a likely winner appears to have finally emerged. Below, we take a look at how the rookies still in the race – at least according to the betting sites – are shaping up as we near the end of their debut regular season.

Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs)

Stephon Castle was taken with the 4th overall pick in last year’s draft, and unlike many of his fellow rookies, has well and truly lived up to expectations this season. He started the season relatively slowly in a minor role before responding really well with increased minutes, but the volatility on the Spurs roster – due in equal parts to mid-season trades, injuries, and some coaching instability – meant his minutes continued to fluctuate even while he was performing well. This meant that he has been up and down in this market like a yoyo, but over the past couple of months he has been playing big minutes primarily in a starting role, and he has excelled.

For the season, Castle is averaging 14.5 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists, but since the All-Star break those numbers are up to 17.6, 5.3 and 4.7. When De’Aaron Fox came over from Sacramento it was unclear how Castle’s role may be affected, playing alongside both Fox and Chris Paul, but as it turned out he played too well for the coaching staff to ignore and since Fox went down with injury and joined Victor Wembanyama, the rookie has really been their main guy. Of course, voters will try to avoid too much recency bias – clearly he’s been the best rookie by some margin for a while, but it’s a season-long award. But even over the course of the season, he looks hard to beat. At virtually unbackable odds, it’s too late to bother punting on him, but he should be winning this award.

Bet on Stephon Castle to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $1.05 with Unibet 

Zaccharie Risacher (Atlanta Hawks)

Zaccharie Risacher was not exactly a unanimous number one pick last year in the way he is predecessor, Wembanyama, was, and he was never going to be putting up the kind of numbers his French counterpart did in his first year. But the second consecutive Francais to go at pick one has still had his moments. He has been handed a very consistent starting role in Atlanta, though he has been playing just 24.7 minutes in that role.

In those minutes, Risacher is averaging 12.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists, and while it’s not all about numbers, those are clearly inferior to those of Castle. But still, Risacher has had his moments. He’s had a couple of big games which he’s followed up with single-figure efforts, not atypical for a rookie, though in the Hawks’ run to the playoffs he’s started to more consistently contribute at a decent level – in his last ten games prior to this update, he’s up to 16.2 points per game on nearly 50% shooting. The only argument that you could make for Risacher to win this award is that he’s now contributing to a team fighting for a spot in the playoffs, which Castle is not. Even that fact, however, is unlikely to be enough for many to have him above the Spur in this race.

Bet on Zaccharie Risacher to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $11.00 with Unibet 

Alexandre Sarr (Washington Wizards)

Taken just behind Risacher was Alexandre Sarr, yet another Frenchman and one much more in the mould of Wembanyama. Sarr is long, skilful and came into the league after a season in the NBL, but he is a lot more raw than Wemby, But like Risacher, Sarr was handed a starting role on the Wizards – not a particularly difficult starting five to break into, and one he shared with numerous other rookies and sophomores. But Sarr has been solid enough without setting the world on fire throughout the course of the season, averaging 13 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.5 blocks. And like Risacher (and Castle), he has started to find his feet in the latter stages of the season.

Since the All-Star break, the long-limbed rookie is averaging over 16 points per game on slightly improved shooting percentages, while the rest of his numbers have hovered around the same level. They’re not mind-boggling by any means, but the Wizards will be perfectly happy with what he has produced. In terms of the Rookie of the Year race, he certainly looks up against it, but it’s hard to see why he is below Risacher. He’s putting up more points and assists playing as a five, while his defensive impact has also probably been superior. Regardless, he is most likely fighting for second place, but if you’re looking for a long odds outsider to upset the Spurs’ guard, Sarr looks like much better value than Risacher at this point in time.

Bet on Alexandre Sarr to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $13.00 with Unibet 

Matas Buzelis (Chicago Bulls)

For a rookie who has hardly missed a game, Matas Buzelis has had an incredibly low-profile first year in the league. He’s started a little over a third of those games on a middling team, but the Bulls may nonetheless make the playoffs and he has had a hand in that. Buzelis has not, by any means, set the world on fire, and his numbers are testament to that – he’s averaging just 8.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 0.9 assists in a little under 20 minutes per game. But like so many rookies do, including the above names, he has felt his way into the season nicely and has gone from a minor role to a fairly significant one in recent games.

In the last eight games prior to writing, Buzelis has just about doubled his numbers in every major statistical category, averaging 15.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.6 assists in that time, playing the fourth-highest number of minutes for the Bulls as they fight for a spot in the playoff. Still, it won’t be nearly enough to get him into the Rookie of the Year race, and even at the enormous odds that are on offer for him he’s not worth a bet.

Bet on Matas Buzelis to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $101.00 with Unibet

Zach Edey (Memphis Grizzlies)

Zach Edey has at various points this season been the favourite to win this award, both prior to the season and during it. But inconsistency has plagued him, and who can blame him. Edey began the season in a starting role for the Grizzlies, but with other more established players at the position and Jay Huff also fighting for minutes, the amount of time he has spent on the floor on any given night has been reliant on how he has performed. That has meant that while he’s had a few solid double-doubles, he’s also had plenty of games with only a handful of points and a couple of rebounds in limited minutes.

Overall, that has taken him to an average of 9.2 points per game to go with 8.0 rebounds and 1.3 blocks. The 8’4” behemoth has at times shown glimpses of the player he could one day be, an incredibly long and not-as-slow-moving-as-he-looks big man who is a very capable roller and a potentially elite defender. Unfortunately for anyone who has placed a bet on him, however, he has not done it nearly often enough to be in genuine consideration for the Rookie of the Year award. More so than many others in the race he has a potentially big couple of months coming up on a competitive team fighting for spots in the Western Conference, but he won’t be winning this award.

Bet on Zach Edey to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $251.00 with Unibet

Kel’el Ware (Miami Heat)

Kel’el Ware’s odds in this race throughout the season are a good indicator of just how volatile it has all been. He hardly did anything for the first half of the season, playing very limited minutes off the bench, but three big games in a row saw him thrust into the starting lineup, and skyrocket into favouritism for Rookie of the Year despite having hardly been worth a passing mention a week earlier. That all seemed a little dramatic – he looked impressive in those three games, but plenty of rookies find something they are unable to sustain at various points throughout the season, and lo and behold that was the case for the versatile Miami big man.

Ware has remained in the starting lineup and has still, at times, been a valuable contributor, with his rebounding numbers particularly impressive. But his work over the course of the season is not going to be enough to get him many votes in this award. Since those aforementioned breakout games in January, Ware has averaged just over 28 minutes per game in 36 outings, putting up 11.0 points, 9.9 rebounds and a little over a block per game. Those are solid enough numbers but would still likely have him short of Castle and probably a couple of others, and of course, as mentioned it’s a season-long award. His slow start means that his season averages are just 9.2 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, which isn’t enough to make him a good bet no matter the odds.

Bet on Kel’el Ware to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $251.00 with Unibet

Jaylen Wells (Memphis Grizzlies)

Jaylen Wells has been hovering around at about $10 in this race for much of the season, with his role as a starter on the Grizz yielding him pretty consistent minutes and production. Not that he was blowing anyone’s head off with what he was delivering, but it’s impressive that he has been able to maintain his starting spot on a good team ever since he moved into it in just his sixth game in the NBA.

For the season, Wells is averaging 10.5 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists, and with other players like Castle and Risacher putting up superior numbers playing in wing/guard roles too, it was always going to be hard for Wells to beat them. His advocates would argue that numbers are not everything and he is playing a diminished role on a team with established stars like Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr, and the fact that he has remained in the starting lineup is testament to his value. That is certainly true to an extent and there is no doubt that the Grizzlies will be happy with what their rookie has delivered, but this award doesn’t go to who plays for a happy team. Wells has had a really nice debut season, but hasn’t done enough to win this award.

Bet on Jaylen Wells to win the Rookie of the Year award @ $251.00 with Unibet

After a huge amount of to-ing and fro-ing throughout the course of the season, the Rookie of the Year race appears to be all but won as we near the end of the regular season. Hopefully you’ve been following this page all season, because we’ve been advocating pretty regularly for Stephon Castle at up to $10 odds – not to toot our own trumpet, of course. Unfortunately, odds like those are long gone, and he is paying little better than bank interest now. It’s certainly not worth bothering with odds like those and this market looks like one to avoid now, but if you do fancy a little flutter, the one outsider still potentially worth a look is Sarr. He’s put up superior numbers over the course of the season than Risacher and is playing some good ball of late, and even if he’s on a much worse team he still probably deserves more love than the man taken one pick ahead of him. But Castle is the extremely short-priced favourite for a reason, and it’s very unlikely that he will be beaten.

• The top pick has secured the Rookie of the Year award 5 times in the last 10 seasons.
• Forwards and centers (PF/C) have seen limited success in recent NBA ROY history, with only 5 victories in the past 20 seasons.
• In this century, only one Rookie of the Year winner (Malcolm Brogdon, 36th pick in 2016) was drafted outside the lottery.
• In 16 out of the last 20 seasons, the Rookie of the Year has been selected among the Top 5 picks.

Last 10 NBA ROY Winners: