AFL 2025 Season Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

There was no clear favourite to win this year’s AFL Premiership entering the season, and a couple of months into it that remains firmly the case. A group of five or six do appear to have separated themselves from the pack, at least in the eyes of the betting sites, but there is not all that much between those teams and there are a handful further down the list who are still capable of making a charge. It looks likely to be a tightly contested season, and below we take a look at some of the favourites to end the last Saturday in September with the trophy held aloft.

Updated: 3rd May 2025

After winning the flag in 2023 and then failing to make the finals last year, the Magpies appear to be well and truly back. That certainly did not appear to be the case after their first game when they were comprehensively beaten by the Giants, but after that they went on to win six in a row, many emphatically. Included among that run were a 91-point win over the Power, a 31-point defeat of the Swans and most impressive of all, a 52-point thrashing of the Lions, so it’s not as though they’ve been beating up on easy opposition.

The run and dare of the 2023 Premiers is well and truly back, and the depth they have all across the park is just about unmatched in the league. With players like the Daicos’ brothers running around, Scott Pendlebury and in particular Steele Sidebottom winding back the clock and Dan Houston proving a valuable pick-up they are looking super dangerous, and that’s with Jordan de Goey having not even really got going yet. There is a long way to go just yet, but the Magpies have been the best team in the comp so far this year and were the Grand Final played tomorrow, they would be very hard to beat. They are favourites with virtually all betting sites in Australia for good reason.

• What brings them here? The Magpies jumped from 17th to 4th in Craig McRae’s first year and went all the way in his second, and they’ll be hoping last season was just a blip on the radar.
  
• What has changed? Nathan Murphy retired while John Noble and Joe Richards were traded, but the Magpies’ big move in the off-season was bringing in Dan Houston, who is joined by Tim Membrey and Harry Perryman on the acquisitions list.
  
• Injury report. Reef McInnes is unfortunately out for the season with a knee, while Tom Mitchell remains TBC with his problematic foot. Fin Macrae is three months away with a shoulder injury and Dan McStay will be out until around late June/early July, while Ash Johnson is due to be available a couple of weeks before that.

Bet on the Giants to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $5.50 with BetRight

After their terrific 2024 campaign – at least, after the first few weeks of the season – the Hawks entered 2025 with high hopes, and so far they have by and large delivered. The plucky young outfit won their first four games of the season, beating in that time the Swans in Sydney, the Blues and the Giants. They finally got a taste of defeat in Gather Round when the Power beat them by five goals and that was followed up with a tight loss to the Cats on Easter Monday, but that looked like a game between two high-quality teams and Hawthorn bounced back with an easy win over the Eagles the next week.

What they might lack in experience the Hawks more than make up for in confidence and dare, and that has taken them a long way so far. The big question mark over Hawthorn that other teams high up on this list don’t really have to answer is their lack of experience in finals, though last year they looked perfectly comfortable on the big stage, beating the Bulldogs with ease in the Elimination Final and then just barely going down to the Power the next week. It is admittedly a big task for a team this young, and given how quickly they have risen they do have more question marks to answer than teams like the Lions and Magpies. For that reason I’d be avoiding them for the time being, but they do look more than capable of going deep into September.

• What brings them here? The Hawks showed an incredible turnaround after a slow start to life under Sam Mitchell, and appear to be going on with it in 2025.
• What has changed? The Hawks brought in Josh Battle from St. Kilda and Tom Barrass from West Coast, massively strengthening their backline.
• Injury report. Mitch Lewis is getting closer to a return from an ACL, though he still isnt’ expected back till close to July, while Will Day will be out till very late in the year with a foot injury. Jack Scrimshaw and Karl Amon both entered concussion protocols following the Round 7 win over the Eagles.

Bet on the Hawks to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $7.50 with BetRight

The Giants have been there or thereabouts plenty in their short tenure in the AFL, including over the past couple of years, and an inaugural AFL Premiership appears within their grasp this season. Having said that, while they have been really impressive at times early in the year, they have not consistently set the world on fire. They split their first six games at three apiece, and it’s potentially cause for concern that the three decent opponents they faced – the Hawks, Crows and Bulldogs – all beat them.

There is no doubting the Giants’ talent – they have a brilliant older crop consisting of the likes of Lachie Whitfield, Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene, plenty of excellent young players including Tom Green and the developing Finn Callaghan, and some elite talent in between, most notably Sam Taylor. The names alone are enough to demonstrate what this team is capable of, but there have been plenty of teams whose starts to the season have been more impressive. Still, it’s a long year, but competition for top four spots will be hot and the Giants can ill-afford to fall too far behind the chasing pack. But they’re good enough to turn things around, and if they do make their way into the top four they can do plenty of damage in September.

• What brings them here? The Giants have been brilliant since halfway through Adam Kingsley’s first season in charge in 2023, and should be right in the mix again this year.
  
• What has changed? Isaac Cumming, Nick Haynes, James Peatling and Harry Perryman have all gone elsewhere, while Jake Stringer has joined from Essendon in a potentially major pick up.
  
• Injury report. Brent Daniels is out with an abdominal injury until late May, but other than that their best 22 is pretty fit and firing.

Bet on the Giants to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $8.00 with PlayUp

The final member of the five-team breakaway atop the Premiership betting is perennial contender Geelong, a team whose ability to regenerate their list on the fly while rarely slipping out of the top handful of teams continues to amaze. Of course, the Cats won the flag just three years ago, but the following season they missed the finals, only to bounce back into the top four last year. Their start to this season has been a little up and down, but their best form has suggested they are more than capable of competing once again.

The Cats found themselves at 4-3 after seven games, but it was a relatively tough fixture to kick things off for them. Their wins included a thumping defeat of the Dockers and really impressive victories over the Crows in Adelaide as well as the Hawks in Adelaide, while all three of those losses came by three goals or less, including a nine-point defeat to the Lions in Brisbane which didn’t lose them any fans. Patrick Dangerfield has wound back the clock and looks like an All-Australian forward, adding to an already dangerous forward line, while the likes of Max Holmes have made their midfield a lot better than it looked on paper entering the season and their backline is full of talented players. The Cats probably aren’t as talented as a couple of the teams above, but they will put themselves right in the mix to finish top four and compete in September.

• What brings them here? The Cats are virtually always in this conversation, having finished in the top four an incredible 14 times in the past 18 seasons.
  
• What has changed? Club great Tom Hawkins has retired as has Zach Tuohy, while Gary Rohan and Brandon Parfitt were delisted. Bailey Smith comes across from the Dogs, while Jack Martin was picked up as a delisted free agent.
  
• Injury report. The Cats have been on the receiving end of plenty of criticism for their vague injury report, which currently has Tanner Bruhn, Cam Guthrie, Mitch Knevitt, Jack Martin, Gryan Miers and five other players listed as ‘TBC’ or ‘indefinite’.

Bet on the Cats to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $8.00 with PlayUp

The Lions’ Premiership defence was postponed by Cyclone Alfred, but they started pretty strongly once they got out there. The reigning Premiers kicked the season off by once again beating the Swans, though it was a far less comfortable victory than they managed on Grand Final day last year. Still, a four-point win in Sydney was a strong start, and they backed it up with a win against the Eagles.

There is good reason to think that the Lions will be better this year than they were last. They have added another Ashcroft to the mix, and throughout the course of the year will see the return of most of the plethora of players who spent last year on the sideline with ACL injuries, Keidean Coleman chief among them. They have plenty of competition, but it would be a surprise to see the Lions outside the top four come the end of the home and away season.

• What brings them here? The Lions have made at least the semi-finals every season since 2018, and have done well to re-generate their list while remaining towards the top of the AFL ladder.
• What has changed? Not all that much. Daniher has retired, while the second Ashcroft comes in.
• Injury report. Coleman and Tom Doedee are nearing returns, while Brandon Starcevich’s future is TBC after a series of head knocks. Lincoln McCarthy has unfortunately re-ruptured his ACL.

Bet on the Lions to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $6.50 with BetRight

The Crows had a really disappointing 2024 season after showing dramatic improvement in 2023, but they always had the talent to prove that last year was an anomaly in what has otherwise been a consistent upward trend. So far this season, they appear to be doing that. Their start to the season was brilliant, with back to back massive scores and ten-goal wins, though they did subsequently go on to lose three of four after winning their first three.

Offensively the Crows are lethal, with some really slick ball movement and a three-pronged key forward approach consisting of the improved Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Tex Walker making them very hard to stop when they’re on. The big question mark is whether they can play at that level all the time against the best teams, though they did show they have more than just the one string to their bow in a hard-fought, contested win against the Giants. The Crows might still be a year or two away from peaking and this season might be a little too early for them to truly compete, but with their best as good as it is it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them rise in these rankings as the season wears on.

• What brings them here? The Crows slowly improved under Matthew Nicks only to go backwards last year, but this team has plenty of potential.
  
• What has changed? The Crows traded Elliot Himmelberg while Rory Sloane retired – though he did that early last season. Isaac Cumming, James Peatling and Alex Neal-Bullen all came in through trade or free agency.
  
• Injury report. Mitch Hinge is suspended till Round 9, while Kieran Strachan is out for the season.

Bet on the Crows to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $17.00 with PlayUp

What a strange sight it is to see the Suns anywhere near this conversation. A decade and a half into their AFL life they remain yet to make the finals, but a really strong start to Damian Hardwick’s second season in charge has them seemingly with the best opportunity yet to make the top eight. Dimma’s Premiership credentials are plain to see in this team, with a toughness that has been notably absent in recent years palpable so far in 2025 and some great footy being played at their best.

But buyers beware. While the Suns won their first four games of the season, they were gifted a very easy draw to kick things off. They beat each of the Eagles, Kangaroos and Demons in the first four weeks before losing to the Tigers, so the start wasn’t nearly as good as it might have looked. Their draw gets a hell of a lot harder thereafter, though they started that tough patch with an impressive win over the out-of-form Swans. Still, with the Lions, Bulldogs and Hawks to follow, they’ve got a big three weeks to come which will show us where they are really at. If they win a couple of those they will scoot past a couple of teams on this list, but it’s easy to see them losing potentially all three and slipping down it.

• What brings them here? A strong start to the season has given the Suns their best chance yet to make the finals.
• What has changed? Dan Rioli and John Noble were brought in, while Rory Atkins and Jack Lukosius were traded.
• Injury report. The Suns are pretty healthy, though Charlie Ballard’s ACL will see him miss the season.

Bet on the Suns to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $17.00 with PlayUp

There is still plenty of water to go under the bridge in what is a really balanced and competitive season, and it’s hard to split the top five at the moment. But while each of them are capable of winning the flag, it’s the Bulldogs who look like the best value to me in the early going. They have been fantastic to start the year, have talent to burn and have finally figured out how to balance their plethora of talls. It’s become increasingly difficult to find a weak spot in this team, and they have already shown the ability to make some very good teams look pretty average. They deserve to be right up there in the Premiership betting but AFL betting sites are taking some time to adjust to that reality, and it would be no surprise if their current odds are about as long as they get for the rest of the season.