AFL Grand Final Betting Predictions and Odds
AFL Football fans! Get your tips and betting predictions ready! The Australian Football League (AFL) season is fast approaching. After 22 rounds of home-and-away regular season games across all Australian States and Territories, New Zealand and even China followed by the final series, the Premiership will be decided by the 2019 AFL Grand Final, played on Saturday, September 28 2019.
The 2019 AFL Premiership season will begin on Thursday, March 21 2019 with 2017 premiers, Richmond looking to get their AFL Premiership campaign under way and take the points over Carlton at the MCG in front of more than 90 000 spectators.
The starting time for the Grand Final is yet to be announced, with the AFL said to be considering the possibility of a night or twilight match to decide the 2019 Premiership. Odds are it would be a huge shift from tradition, however, purists will be happy to learn that for the third year in a row the match will be played on the traditional last Saturday in September.
The West Coast Eagles are aiming to win back-to-back premierships for the first time in their history, and their fifth overall after breaking a 12-year premiership drought in 2018.
2019 AFL Grand Final Betting Odds
(current at 22 November 2018 – subject to change)
AFL Football bookmakers have released the following odds on AFL Grand Final betting (in addition, many bookmakers have a range of multibet and bonus options and other special weekly promotions):
|West Coast Eagles|
|Port Adelaide Power|
|North Melbourne Kangaroos|
|St Kilda Saints|
|Gold Coast Suns|
*Odds provided by Betstar
AFL Grand Final Venue
The MCG stadium is a shrine of Australian sport with a global reputation. For anyone who has ever played Australian Rules Football, it’s the ultimate venue for AFL finals games and most importantly, the long-time home of the ‘big dance’ on the last Saturday of September.
Built in 1853, the ‘G’ has seen more than its fair share of dramatic AFL/VFL action and Melbourne’s ‘coliseum’ of sport has witnessed the footprints of hundreds of the code’s greatest players across its turf.
The MCG hosted its first AFL/VFL grand final in 1902, with 35,000 people turning up to watch Collingwood beat Essendon on that occasion. Over the intervening years, both the ground and game have grown exponentially, with 100,022 watching West Coast’s dramatic last quarter win over Collingwood in the 2018 Grand Final.
Winners of the Most AFL Grand Finals
16 – Carlton, Essendon
15 – Collingwood
13 – Hawthorn
12 – Melbourne
11 – Richmond
9 – Geelong
8 – Fitzroy/Brisbane Lions
5 – Sydney/South Melbourne
Recent AFL Grand Final Betting History
In 2016, the Western Bulldogs (starting the match as $2.40 outsiders) appeared in their first Grand Final since 1961 and subsequently beat the Sydney Swans by 22 points. The Bulldogs won three consecutive finals from a record seventh position on the ladder, being underdogs on each occasion to progress through to the Grand Final.
In 2018, the West Coast Eagles also started at $2.25 to upset the favourites and more fancied Collingwood Magpies ($1.67).
AFL Grand Final Betting Predictions for 2019
- Richmond – Betstar Premiership Odds – $5.00
2017 Premiers, Richmond may have bombed out in the 2018 preliminary final to a determined red-hot Collingwood side, however, Richmond is still the-team-to-beat in 2019 according to the bookies. After recruiting the best-big-forward in the competition from the Gold Coast Suns in Tom Lynch, the Tigers will be tough to beat in 2019. Still armed with the best player in the AFL in Dusty Martin, the most innovative coach in Damien Hardwick, and the Tiger Army being the best supporters in the AFL, we expect the Tigers to go deep into the finals again this year.
- Melbourne – Betstar Premiership Odds – $7.00
The Demons look well set to improve on their deep finals run and replicate their Preliminary Final in 2018. Their spine looks well set. The Demons will need to continue on from 2018, be-more-consistent, exercise more discipline and learn to manage the evitable dips in form a little better than they have previously and have better discipline. If star All-Australian ruckman, Max Gawn and surprise Brownlow Medal third-place getter, Angus Brayshaw stay fit, the Demons can thrash any side on their day.
- Collingwood – Betstar Premiership Odds – $8.00
It was a super season for the Magpies in 2018 and Nathan Buckley finally showed his skill as a coach. Collingwood have classy midfielders in Steele Sidebottom, captain Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams and Adam Treloar, who all had strong seasons and were keys to their 2018 success.
Collingwood have one of the hardest possible draws in 2019. They play the other three preliminary finalists from 2018 twice, in Richmond, Melbourne and West Coast in tough matchups for the Magpies.
It is a tough draw for the Pies, (who also play Top 4 contender Essendon twice in 2019), however, with their talented list, another impressive season appears in store.
- Essendon – Betstar Premiership Odds – $14.00
Expect John Worsfold’s young group of players to keep learning and improving exponentially. 2019 seems to be a promising season for the Bombers. The acquisition of Dylan Shiel will boost the impressive midfield of Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell and David Zaharakis. Their attacking backline featuring Michael Hurley and Adam Saad will want to drive defence into attack quickly and any side coached by John Worsfold will play the full four quarters and deny opposition sides chances to score with defensive and tackling intensity.
- Greater Western Sydney Giants – Betstar Premiership Odds – $9.00
We have the feeling that in season 2019, the Giants will need to at least make it back to a Preliminary Final to have a successful year. After two-consecutive Preliminary Final exits in 2016 and 2017, and being knocked the week previous in 2018, the time is now for the Giants to reap rewards from their talented line-up. If they manage to keep star players fit in 2019, who-is-to-say the Giants won’t win the premiership in 2019? Given the development of other teams around them, as well as retirements and trades of some key personnel will make this a difficult task. Depth is their issue, and a being one talented ruckman short. That said, look for the Giants to return to a Preliminary Final.
- Sydney Swans – Betstar Premiership Odds – $14.00
The Sydney Swans suffered throughout 2018 with an enormous injury toll to key position players. With fewer injuries, more luck and their younger players now being more experienced in 2019, they should challenge for a Top 8 spot by season’s end. The freakish long goal kicking skills of Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin and defensive tackling intensity can combine to pile the goals on unsuspecting opponents. John Longmire’s superb coaching skills and desire to blood talented young impact players that play like seasoned veterans is always a factor.
- West Coast Eagles – Betstar Premiership Odds – $7.00
We’re predicting that the Eagles will struggle in their Premiership defence in 2019. While in 2018, the Eagles finally learnt how to win away from Perth on a more regular basis, there were many close victories that could have gone either way. Sure, they still have a talented list, but the combination of their travel schedule combined with a Premiership hangover means we believe the Eagles will only sneak into the Top 8 in 2019.
- Adelaide Crows – Betstar Premiership Odds – $17.00
Our long-shot tip to both sneak into the Top 8 and take out the Premiership. The Crows list is too good to ignore.
AFL Grand Final Betting – How to Tips & Types
There are a number of AFL Grand Final Betting types (combinations of all the different types are generally available to make multibet and/or accumulator options) provided by the best bookies promotions. AFL Grand Final Betting is without a doubt the biggest punting day of the AFL season.
Most commonly, the easiest and most simple bet is the Head-to-Head, where you select who you think will win the game outright.
Next there is the Line Bet, where the favourite is handicapped with a margin which in effect makes the game equal. For example, if Team A is calculated to be 29 points better than Team B, the line will be set at -29.5 for Team A and +29.5 for the Team B. This means that if you bet on Team A, they need to win by more than 29 points in order for you to win your bet; Team B will need to get within 29 points of Team A or win the game. The return for a Line Bet is generally close to even money at around $1.89 or $1.91 depending on the bookmaker.
The most popular exotic for AFL Grand Final Betting is the First Goal Kicker bet. The concept is a pure and simple one. You place a bet on who will kick the first goal of the game. You can bet on the first goal kicker for either side, or the first goal kicker in the game/half or particular quarter. It’s important and pertinent to check the final team lists before placing your First Goal Kicker bet. Note, team line-ups must be finalised only 90 minutes before the first bounce. It will generally pay to avoid placing First Goal Scorer bets on players who start the match the bench.
You can also bet on which side will be ahead at each break, who will gain the most disposals and who will win the Norm Smith Medal, the award given for the player voted best on the ground.
2019 Norm Smith Medal Betting
The Norm Smith Medal winner is one of the most innovative bet types on AFL Grand Final day, with the best player on the ground (as voted by a panel of media representatives) receiving the honour. In 2018, Luke Shuey’s heroics led West Coast to an improbable come from behind Grand Final victory. In 2017, Richmond superstar, Dustin ‘Dusty’ Martin was the first player to win the Brownlow Medal as the AFL’s best player and the Norm Smith Medal in the same year.
In 2019 the Norm Smith Medal Winner is anyone’s guess and betting markets should begin to become available from August 2019 as the Top 8 begins to take shape before the finals.
The Norm Smith Medal was named after the famous Melbourne Demons player and coach and it has awarded every year since 1979. Only three players have won the award twice; Hawthorn’s Gary Ayres (1986 and 1988) and Luke Hodge (2008 and 2014), in addition to the Adelaide Crows Andrew McLeod in 1997 and 1998. Can Luke Shuey make it back-to-back Norm Smith’s? If the Eagles make it to the big dance again, it would take a brave man to bet against him!
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