Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje: Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

UFC Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje
Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje, Lightweight·Main event, Rogers Arena

The 155-pound division is arguably the most exciting in the UFC, and we’re set for another cracking encounter as Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje throw up an intriguing match of styles this weekend.

Tale of the tape

UFC Donald Cerrone

UFC Justin Gaethje

Donald Cerrone

Justin Gaethje

36 Age 30
6.1 ft Height 5.9 ft
155 lbs. Weight 155 lbs.
73 in Reach 70 in

Our Betting Tips

Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone was on his way towards another crack at UFC gold before his defeat to Tony Ferguson in June, but the veteran’s momentum was well and truly halted when a gruesome eye injury put a stop to that contest at UFC 238 under doctor’s orders. Justin ‘The Highlight’ Gaethje meanwhile has recaptured some of his momentum after an 18-fight unbeaten start to his mixed martial arts career was ended with back-to-back defeats.

Fight to finish inside the distance

Gaethje has bounced back from those losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier with two KO victories over James Vick and Edson Barboza. The 30-year-old Arizona native displayed his fearsome punching power in those two bouts, as well as his strong fight IQ and tactics. A successful night in British Columbia would continue his recovery and leave the Highlight on the cusp of a title shot. Gaethje is an aggressive fighter who walks down his opponents, but he also has an excellent ground game thanks to his college wresting background. We just haven’t seen much of it yet in the UFC.

Gaethje to win by KO or TKO

Cerrone is also an accomplished wrestler, and the older man may have to take this fight to the canvas to get the win he needs. Cowboy has struggled against opponents in the past who’ve applied serious pressure, not least in his last bout against Ferguson. The wounds from that bloody battle have barely had time to heal, and while his willingness to fight anyone, anywhere, has seen Cerrone write himself into UFC folklore, Cowboy’s camp has to be concerned that he’s not at 100% this weekend.

Cerrone to win via submission

Even if he was at full heath, this would be an extremely tough night for Cerrone. His three-fight win streak following the birth of his son last year suggested he was getting better with age, but Ferguson showed Gaethje exactly how to beat him. The Highlight isn’t as technically strong as Ferguson, but his forward pressure and punching power is going to give Cerrone a tough time in the Octagon. Cowboy is a warrior who never gives up, but Gaethje is the favourite with the best betting sites and has the tools to get himself back into title contention here.

Gaethje to win by KO or TKO in the fourth round

Best Odds

Donald Cerrone
Justin Gaethje


  • Justin Gaethje arrived in the UFC with a perfect 17-0 record – he’s 3-2 since signing with the company, with all three wins coming via KO or TKO.
  • After going 12-1 between November 2013 and December 2016, Donald Cerrone is 4-5 in his last nine fights.
  • This will be Donald Cerrone’s 50th professional MMA fight, while Gaethje has fought 22 times.
  • While Cerrone lands a solid 4.2 significant strikes per minute, Gaethje incredibly lands more than double that amount, at 8.5 per minute.
  • Gaethje is easier to hit because of that, absorbing 10.23 significant strikes per minute, to Cerrone’s 4.06.
  • Despite his wrestling background, Gaethje has never attempted a takedown in the UFC – Cerrone averages 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Our Prediction for Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje to win the fight 

Donald Cerrone is adored by UFC fans around the world, and there are lots of fighters in combat sports who should take a leaf out of his book when it comes to their schedule and willingness to take on all comers. However, that won’t help Cowboy against Justin Gaethje this weekend, with the 30-year-old looking to get back to the top of the lightweight rankings. The Highlight will apply serious pressure as he walks down Cerrone, unafraid to take punishment on his way in. We could be set for a bit of a slugfest before a brutal KO to end the show at Fight Night 158.

John Abrams is a passionate sports fanatic who follows NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAAF, NCAAB and Formula 1. A former sports trader, John has an unquestioned thirst for sports knowledge and often fills his time playing fantasy or placing wagers online.

All Predictions by John Abrams