Soccer Betting Tips for April 28, 2026: Best Bets, Odds and Analysis

It is a huge week of football, starting on Wednesday as Arsenal head to Atletico Madrid for the first leg of their Champions League semi-final. On Thursday, Nottingham Forest welcome Aston Villa to the City Ground in an all-English Europa League clash. Leverkusen vs Leipzig, a crucial Bundesliga fixture, gets the weekend going, and Sunday then serves up Manchester United vs Liverpool as well as Real Madrid vs Espanyol. For more previews and tips, head to bettingtop10 South Africa.

Atletico Madrid head to the Metropolitano in terrible form, with only one victory in their last five games in all competitions and 11 goals shipped along the way, an average of 2.2 a game. Injuries make things worse: Gimenez has a muscle problem and is out, Barrios is missing with a thigh issue, and Lookman is fighting to recover from an adductor injury. Arsenal, on the other hand, came through a close quarter-final with Sporting CP with their momentum intact, and they have already shown what they can do against this Atletico team by winning 4-0 in the UCL league phase earlier in the season. Arteta will probably be without Timber, and Merino is still out long term, yet Arsenal's defensive setup has held firm all through their European run. I think the memory of that 4-0 loss will hang over Simeone's players in this tie, and with important players unavailable, Atletico's normally rock solid defensive structure at the Metropolitano is badly weakened. I see Arsenal seizing control early and keeping up the pressure. Atletico have kept scoring despite their slump, finding the net in each of their last 12 games, so both teams should score, and the attacking approach of both sides points firmly to over 2.5 goals.

Value Reasoning: Arsenal to win at 2.60 is excellent value, given Atletico's slump over five games, their run of defensive injuries and the mental scars of that 4-0 loss in the first meeting.

Nottingham Forest reaching their first European semi-final since 1984 is one of this season's best stories in the competition. They come in unbeaten in eight, a run that features a 5-0 thrashing of Sunderland, a 4-1 win over Burnley and a hard fought aggregate victory against Porto in the quarter-finals. Their defensive problems heading into this first leg are seriously worrying, though. Murillo has a suspected hamstring injury, Hudson-Odoi is out for the season after surgery on his leg, and Savona, Boly and John Victor are all missing as well, so Vitor Pereira is left with a badly stripped back defence. Aston Villa come in looking far healthier. Unai Emery's team crushed Bologna 7-1 over two legs to reach this stage, and Emery, who has won the Europa League four times, knows exactly how to handle the pressure of big knockout games. Villa will be without Kamara and Barkley, and Onana is a doubt too, but they still have far more than enough attacking talent to take advantage of a patched up Forest defence. As I see it, Villa's deeper squad, their European know how and the opening created by Forest's injury problems make them the best away value of the week. Forest do score, as their recent results show, so both teams should get on the scoresheet, and with Villa's forwards firing, over 2.5 goals looks a strong call.

Value Reasoning: Aston Villa at 2.65 on the road is outstanding value, with Forest short of several defenders and up against Emery, whose four Europa League trophies make him the best coach around in this tournament.

RB Leipzig may well be the form team in the Bundesliga at the moment, with five league wins in a row, among them a 5-0 rout of Hoffenheim and a 3-1 win against Union Berlin last weekend. Marco Rose's team have averaged 2.8 goals a game over that spell and are third on 59 points. Leipzig look the stronger side on paper, but the situation matters a great deal here: Bayer Leverkusen are at home at the BayArena with just three Bundesliga games left to close the gap to the top four from sixth, so the Werkself have a massive reason to deliver. Importantly, Leverkusen have already beaten Leipzig 3-1 at the RB Arena this season, proving they have the quality and tactics to match them in a big game. As I see it, Leverkusen's need for points at home, with a Conference League play-off spot the least they can aim for, brings an intensity that swings it towards the hosts. Leipzig let in 1.2 goals a game, and their attacking style makes goals at both ends likely, with the match easily going past 2.5 goals once you consider what Leipzig have produced home and away this season.

Value Reasoning: Leverkusen at 1.95 on home soil, with a European place at stake and a 3-1 win over Leipzig already this season, is good value against an in form side up against a hungry and determined home team.

Since taking charge in January, Michael Carrick has turned Manchester United around. They are well organised, hard to beat and third in the Premier League on 61 points. United go into this Old Trafford game on the back of two straight wins, the latest a 2-1 home success against Brentford on April 27, with Kobbie Mainoo calm and commanding in the middle of the park. The defence is stretched, with Martinez banned and Yoro a doubt, but Carrick's system has proved sturdy enough to cope. Liverpool, for their part, have been dealt a crushing blow. Mohamed Salah tore a hamstring in the 3-1 victory against Crystal Palace on April 25, and Egypt's national team staff have ruled him out for the rest of the season, an exit that could well end his Liverpool career for good. Alisson is also still a doubt, so Freddie Woodman would step in if he is not fit in time. I think Liverpool are a completely different side in attack without Salah, as he is both their main creator and their most dependable finisher, and without him they will struggle to break down a disciplined United team. My pick is United to win and keep a clean sheet at Old Trafford, which makes the win to nil at 2.50 the most attractive bet on the card, given how much weaker Liverpool are going forward.

Value Reasoning: Man United at 1.72 at home against a Liverpool team without Salah and Alisson is good value, and the clean sheet at 2.50 is just as appealing with Liverpool's attack so badly weakened.

Real Madrid head to the RCDE Stadium with their La Liga title hopes in the balance and El Clasico against Barcelona coming up on May 10, so this is a game they simply have to win: Los Blancos cannot slip before the biggest match of their campaign. Courtois, Rodrygo and now Mbappe are all injured, but their record against Espanyol is among the most one sided in the history of Spanish football, with 26 Real Madrid wins in the last 32 meetings and only three for Espanyol. The home side are still missing Javi Puado and come up against a Real Madrid squad deep enough to keep its quality even during an injury hit spell. From watching this fixture over the years, I have found that when Real Madrid visit the RCDE with the title on the line and the Clasico ahead, they are sharper and hungrier than the opposition. Espanyol will make it hard and can score at home, but Real Madrid's attacking power should create more than enough to win comfortably and take the total well past 2.5 goals, with both teams likely to score against defences that are fairly open at this point of the season.

Value Reasoning: Real Madrid at 1.70 offers dependable value, supported by a 26-3-3 head-to-head record against Espanyol and the extra motivation of needing a sharp display ahead of El Clasico week.