World Cup 2026: Ecuador vs Germany Prediction, Tips & Odds

* Odds supplied by Betway, accurate at the time of writing.

Ecuador take on group winners Germany at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on Thursday night, kicking off at 22:00 CAT. On one point and still waiting for their first goal, Ecuador must win to keep any hope of making the knockouts, while Germany have already finished top and can rest their key players. The gap between a desperate Ecuador and a relaxed Germany makes this a gripping last group match. All our World Cup betting tips are waiting for you in our dedicated section.

Ecuador

Ecuador have been frustrating going forward, drawing a blank in both games, losing their first match to a late Ivory Coast winner and then playing out a goalless draw with Curacao in spite of an amazing 15 shots on target. For me, Sebastian Beccacece has a strong base in Moises Caicedo and the centre back duo of Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapie, but the final third is still a big issue. Enner Valencia is their best hope of scoring, and they need him at his very best. As I see it, they must play more directly and get Plata and Yeboah running at a second string German back line.

Expected Starting XI: Galindez; Franco, Pacho, Hincapie; Estupinan, Alcivar, Vite, Caicedo, Yeboah; Plata, Valencia.

Germany

Germany have been the best side in the group, thumping Curacao 7-1 and then fighting back to beat Ivory Coast and lock up first place. With their place in the next round secure, Julian Nagelsmann is free to rotate and give game time to squad players, which will lower their intensity. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz can still settle any game if they play, but I think several first choice players will be rested or brought on later. As I see it, a much changed Germany will be comfortable but nowhere near as ruthless as their hammering of Curacao implied.

Expected Starting XI: Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Rüdiger; Nmecha, Pavlovic, Musiala, Wirtz; Sane, Havertz.

Ecuador will throw everything forward in search of the win they need, and against a much changed Germany I think they will finally score. The trouble is that attacking leaves space at the back, and Germany have the individual quality to make them pay even with a new look side. I see a nervy draw that does not help Ecuador much in the end. My prediction: Ecuador 1 Germany 1.

Under 2.5 Goals (1.96)

My pick is under 2.5 goals, because as I see it a rotated Germany team with nothing to play for will not force the issue, and Ecuador have shown hardly any attacking spark in two games. Ecuador are still without a goal, and Germany will probably manage the game instead of pushing for more. At 1.96, a low scoring match looks the value bet.