Kelvin Gastelum vs Israel Adesanya: Predictions, Betting Tips, Odds & Statistics

Kelvin Gastelum vs Israel Adesanya UFC 236
Kelvin Gastelum vs Israel Adesanya UFC 236

Sunday, April 14th, 2019 @ 4:00 am
State Farm Arena
UFC 236

Kelvin Gastelum 2.40 | Israel Adesanya 1.46

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Tale of the tapePredictions & Betting TipsOdds | Statistics

The UFC 236 co-main event serves up a clash of styles as Kelvin Gastelum and Israel Adesanya square off for the interim middleweight title.

Tale of the tape

UFC Kelvin Gastelum

Kelvin Gastelum

UFC Israel Adesanya

Israel Adesanya

27 Age 29
69 in Height 76 in
185 lbs Weight 185 lbs
71.5 in Reach 80 in

Predictions & Betting Tips

The UFC’s middleweight division is after an interim champion as Robert Whittaker continues his recovery from surgery. Gastelum was denied his title shot just 24 hours before he was due to face Whittaker at UFC 234, when the champ pulled out with a hernia.

This is the only fight that makes sense to select a temporary 185-pound king, and it’s an intriguing match-up when it comes to style. Adesanya towers some seven inches over Gastelum, and that translates to a huge reach advantage of 8.5 inches. ‘The Last Stylebender’ will use that to control the distance and avoid getting into a dogfight.

Gastelum is used to fighting taller opponents, so he’s well-versed in trying to close distance and get inside. When he’s there, he’ll look to land one of his most potent weapons, a heavy left hook. The American will have to stay busy to avoid getting picked off by Adesanya’s jab, honed in his early career as a boxer and then kickboxer.

That could cause Gastelum problems, as he can struggle with gassing out. Adesanya has wonderful stamina, and that could play a big part in this fight. We’ve seen time and again that Gastelum has a solid chin though, and he’s never been knocked out in his career. He also has genuine punching power that’s seen him finish the likes of Michael Bisping and Vitor Belfort.

However, Gastelum’s victory over the latter two years ago was overturned as a no contest after he tested positive for a a marijuana metabolite. A submission loss to Chris Weidman followed that fight, before victories over Bisping and Ronaldo Souza, which came via split decision. Adesanya meanwhile comes into this weekend’s encounter on the back of a unanimous decision victory over the legendary Anderson Silva two months ago.

The Nigerian-born New Zealander has a perfect 16-0 MMA record, with three of his last four UFC wins coming via decision. If he can avoid Gasetlum’s takedown attempts, we could be on for the same outcome this weekend. Adesanya bears similarities to Jon Jones in terms of his ranginess and craftiness in striking.


1 x 2 Odds

Kelvin Gastelum Israel Adesanya


  • Adesanya is yet to lose an MMA fight
  • Gastelum has won four of his last 13 UFC fights via first-round knockout
  • Adesanya will have an 8.5-inch reach advantage over Gastelum
  • Gastelum averages 0.82 takedowns every 15 minutes in the UFC, while Adesanya is yet to attempt a successful takedown
  • Adesanya boasts an 85% takedown defence coming into this fight
  • Adesanya averages 4.47 significant strikes per minute, which is higher than Gastelum’s 3.86 per minute
  • 28% of Adesanya’s significant strikes are aimed at his opponents’ legs, compared to Gastelum’s 12%

Kelvin Gastelum 2.40 | Israel Adesanya 1.46

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