Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson: Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson UFC Fight Night 161
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson, Amalie Arena, Women Strawweight, UFC Fight Night 161

The fight is over.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk win.

The UFC’s #5-ranked strawweight Joanna Jedrzejczyk laces up her gloves to face the woman ranked #7 in the division this weekend, ‘The Karate Hottie’ Michelle Waterson.

Tale of the tape

Joanna Jedrzejczyk UFC

Michelle Waterson UFC

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Michelle Waterson

32 Age 33
5.5 ft Height 5.2 ft
125 lbs. Weight 115 lbs.
65.5 in Reach 62 in

Our Betting Tips

Joanna Jedrzejczyk is in need of a big performance at the Amelie Arena, as the former 115-pound queen aims to bounce back from a run of three losses in her last four fights. The Polish fighter is the strong favourite with all of the best betting sites against her American opponent Michelle Waterson, who comes into the contest on the back of a three-fight winning streak.

Waterson to win via submission

The Karate Hottie has recovered from successive defeats to Rose Namajunas and Tecia Torres to put together her run of victories, which have all come via decision. The two most recent of those were unanimous on the judges’ cards, against Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Another win will put the Colorado native in contention for a title shot against new champion Zhang Weili, but she’ll need the performance of her career to do so. She’ll also need to utilise her wrestling skills and take this fight to the ground.

Jedrzejczyk to win via KO or TKO

Having said that, Jedrzejczyk has never been submitted in 18 professional bouts. However, the Pole has a superior striking game to Waterson, who will lose if she attempts to stand and trade punches. Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko were too good at picking off Jedrzejczyk in her three recent losses, but Waterson isn’t at their level. Jedrzejczyk’s striking dominance was a hallmark as she successfully defended the strawweight title five times between 2015 and 2017, including a unanimous decision victory against the recently dethroned Jessica Andrade.

Fight to finish inside the distance

Jedrzejczyk’s Muay Thai and kickboxing background means she heavily outranks Waterson – who is well-versed in karate – when it comes to the variety of her striking. That’s going to cause the American a lot of problems, particularly over five rounds. Waterson is tough and durable, but she’s never gone beyond 15 minutes in the UFC, and that could prove a major factor. With that in mind, a late knockout victory in the fourth or fifth round could offer some excellent value, considering Jedrzejczyk is such a heavy favourite in the outright market.

Jedrzejczyk to win via KO or TKO in round 5

Best Odds

Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Michelle Waterson
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  • Michelle Waterson is the woman on the upward trajectory coming into this fight, winning each of her last three fights via decision.
  • Joanna Jedrzejczyk has only won one of her last four bouts, also via decision against Tecia Torres – who inflicted Waterson’s last defeat on her in December 2017.
  • Jedrzejczyk is returning to stawweight after stepping up to flyweight in her last fight, in a failed bid to win the vacant title against Valentina Shevchenko.
  • 53% of Waterson’s 17 MMA victories have come via submission, while Jedrzejczyk has only won once by submission. She’s never been submitted herself though, compared to Waterson’s three defeats in this manner.
  • Waterson boasts a higher striking accuracy coming into this fight – 57% to 46% – but Jedrzejczyk lands 6.07 significant strikes per minute, to Waterson’s 4.04.
  • Jedrzejczyk also absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute – 2.77 to Waterson’s 3.76.

Our Prediction for Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson

Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win the fight

Don’t let her nickname fool you – Michelle Waterson is a tough cookie. Quick, agile and tenacious, she will put herself firmly in the title picture with a win this weekend. If she can take this fight to the ground then her wrestling and submissions will come into play. However, Joanna Jedrzejczyk has a far superior striking game and brings a huge amount of experience on the biggest stage into this fight. The Pole has never been submitted and her only three defeats in 18 MMA bouts have come against truly elite fighters in Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko. This fight is likely to go deep into the five rounds, but Jedrzejczyk possesses the tools to take the win.

John Abrams is a passionate sports fanatic who follows NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAAF, NCAAB and Formula 1. A former sports trader, John has an unquestioned thirst for sports knowledge and often fills his time playing fantasy or placing wagers online.

All Predictions by John Abrams