Finland vs Italy: Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Finland vs Italy
Finland vs Italy, Euro 2020, Tampere Stadium, Tampere

The match is over.
Score: 1-2.

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Finland welcome table toppers Italy to Tampere for their crunch Euro 2020 qualifying match with just three points separating the sides as the Finns sit on 12 points and are in a good position for their very first qualification for a major tournament.   

Our Betting Tips

Italy sit on top of Group J of Euro 2020 qualification with 15 points, having won their opening five matches, the Azzurri have scored 16 times in those five games. The Italians left it late to make sure of the three points against ten-man Armenia on Thursday, but were able to run out 3-1 winners thanks to an Andrea Belotti brace and a Lorenzo Pellegrini header.


Andrea Belotti scored twice in the 3-1 win over Armenia and was denied a hattrick by an awful offside decision late in the second half after having another strike correctly ruled out in the first. The Torino hitman has now scored seven times in 23 appearances for his country and had a timely confidence boost ahead of leading the line against Finland and that could be why the bookies fancy Belotti to score.


Both these teams have a good defensive record in Group I with Finland conceding just twice, and both of those goals came against Italy earlier in qualifying, while the Azzurri have also let in just two goals, something will have to give in this tie.


Italy will face a team that is desperate to qualify for their first major tournament but should have too much quality for Finland to cope with.


Best Odds

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Head to Head

These sides last met in March and the Azzurri ran out comfortable 2-0 winners at the Dacia Arena in Udine. The Italians have the better of the historical head to head by winning 11 of the last 12 matches between the sides, while the other tie ended as a goalless draw back in 1975.


  • Finland have lost just once in their last 12 games played at home between friendlies and qualifiers, which included wins over Iceland, Greece and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
  • Italy are unbeaten in European Championship Qualification since losing 3-1 away to France in 2006, which is a run of 35 games.
  • Finland have only lost once in Group I and that was a 2-0 away loss to the Italians in March, however they have won all four of their following games while keeping a clean sheet.
  • Italy have won their last three games on the road, but prior to that, they only won one of their previous seven matches away from home between friendlies and qualifiers.   

Our Prediction for Finland vs Italy

The match to end in a draw.

Finland are having their best qualifying tournament since missing out for Euro 2008 by just three points behind Portugal and Poland and will be hoping to pick up at least a point in this tie to cement their second position in the table.  The Finns topped their UEFA Nations League group and were promoted to Division B and with Norwich striker Teemu Pukki bang on form with five Premier League goals to his name so far, they have a chance of breaking down the Azzurri defence.

Italy, on the other hand, need to put in a better performance than they did in the win over Armenia as they were put under pressure by the Armenians quick counter attacks and were fortunate to not fall behind a second time before Lorenzo Pellegrini put them into a 2-1 lead.  A win here for the Azzurri would pretty much ensure their qualification for next summer’s tournament.

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Callum Brady is an avid football fan and overly optimistic Leeds supporter #MOT! When he is not spotted visiting Elland Road, Callum spends his time following European Football, Rugby, and has recently taken interest in the NFL. A travel enthusiast, Callum is always looking for recommendations on where to travel based on football pitches to visit.

All Predictions by Callum Brady