Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz: Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz UFC
Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz, Madison Square Garden, Welterweight, UFC Fight Night 244

It’s a UFC first at Madison Square Garden this weekend, as Jorge ‘Gamebred’ Masvidal and Nate Diaz go toe-to-toe for the Baddest Mother****** (BMF) Belt on Saturday night.

Tale of the tape

Jorge Masvidal UFC

UFC Nate Diaz

Jorge Masvidal
34-13-0

Nate Diaz
20-11-0

34 Age 34
5.9 ft Height 6 ft
170 lbs. Weight 170 lbs
74 in Reach 76 in

Our Betting Tips

Two battle-hardened welterweights, two mouths that like to tell it how it is, two men who both believe they’re the baddest mixed martial artist around, and one atypical finding from an out-of-competition drugs test. Nate Diaz pulled out of UFC 244’s main event at the end of last week on account of an elevated substance called LGD-4033, but it turns out no doping violation has been committed. UFC president Dana White spoke of his confidence in Diaz’s status as a clean athlete as he confirmed this bout with Jorge Masvidal will go ahead as planned.

Diaz to win by submission

The five-round contest is the second of Diaz’s comeback following a three-year hiatus that ended with a unanimous decision victory over Anthony Pettis at UFC 241 in August. Despite now being 34, the Stockton brawler looked as though he’d never been away from the Octagon in that impressive performance. The potential to go 25 minutes will test his cardio, but Diaz has always been strong in that department. He’s also a strong submitter, having recorded the fourth-most submissions in UFC history. Diaz usually starts relatively slowly while he tries to wear down his opponents, and that could be a useful tactic once more to last course and distance here, or force a late submission.

Masvidal to win in the first round

Jorge Masvidal’s last fight couldn’t provide any more of a contrast to those sentiments. Gamebred recorded the fastest knockout in UFC history as he landed a stunning flying knee to settle his grudge match with Ben Askren in just five seconds. If the referee had been closer, it would’ve been three. There’s little chance of Masvidal trying anything similar against such a wily campaigner as Diaz, nor would Diaz fall for such a trick. Masvidal is probably riding his highest wave in the UFC after recovering from back-to-back decision defeats against Demian Maia and Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson in 2017, to win successive fights against Askren and former title contender Darren Till this year after taking the whole of 2018 off.

Fight to go the distance

With both men back with a bang, this fight will decide who continues on their upward trajectory in the welterweight standings. Currently, Masvidal is ranked as the #3 contender in the division, while Diaz is #6 despite his lengthy absence. Saturday’s contest is likely to ebb and flow, with Masvidal making a stronger start and Diaz coming into the fight before taking control in the later rounds. The question is whether we’ll get to them or not. Both of these men are incredibly durable, which suggests we will. Masvidal has heavy hands and will hurt Diaz in the early rounds, but Diaz will continue to come forward and pick up rounds on the judges’ cards. As the underdog with all of the best betting sites, there could be some good value on Diaz to win via decision this weekend.

Diaz to win via decision

Best Odds

Jorge Masvidal
Nate Diaz
10Cric
Bet365

Statistics

  • Jorge Masvidal (47) and Nate Diaz (31) have competed in 78 MMA contests between them, with 41 of those in the UFC – Masvidal 17 and Diaz 24.
  • Diaz has only fought once since his 2016 double-header with Conor McGregor, when he won via rear naked choke at UFC 196 before losing a majority decision in the rerun at UFC 202.
  • Diaz has nine wins by submission so far, the fourth-highest number in UFC history.
  • Fourteen of Masvidal’s 34 MMA victories have come via KO, including each of his last four.
  • Both men bring a similar striking accuracy into this fight, Masvidal 48% and Diaz 44%.
  • Diaz lands more significant strikes per minute – 4.64 to Masvidal’s 4.11 – while he also absorbs fewer – 3.69 to Masvidal’s 4.18.

Our Prediction for Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz

Nate Diaz to win the fight

With the BMF Belt on the line, as well as the future prospects for each of these 34-year-olds, this looks like being a fiercely contested and bruising encounter. Nate Diaz usually shines in this kind of fight, but Jorge Masdival is tougher than most. The Miami native will have a major say in this bout, particularly in the early rounds, but Diaz has incredible resilience and durability, and he’ll keep coming at Masvidal. Diaz’s performance against Anthony Pettis was hugely impressive, blowing out any ring rust that may have built up with consummate ease. Setting his sights on one last crack at UFC gold, we’re backing Diaz to at least add the BMF title to his CV this weekend.

John Abrams is a passionate sports fanatic who follows NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAAF, NCAAB and Formula 1. A former sports trader, John has an unquestioned thirst for sports knowledge and often fills his time playing fantasy or placing wagers online.

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