Patriots at Rams: Predictions & Statistics
Sunday, February 3, 23:30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
Tom Brady looks to capture his record-breaking 6th Super Bowl victory this week in Atlanta. Waiting for him on Super Bowl Sunday will be the Los Angeles Rams and head coach Sean McVay, who is eight years Brady’s junior.
Since day one of the Sean McVay era in Los Angeles, the Rams have been pegged as an explosive, lethal offensive unit. Yet, as they maneuvered their way through the playoffs, on their way to their first Super Bowl appearance in 19 years, the Rams depended on stout and dominant defense.
Los Angeles faced off against three pro-bowl running backs in the post-season, and held not one, but all three to a combined total of just 93-yards rushing. Even with their dominant play of late, New England’s run offense may be a different animal. In a game that features the greatest quarterback of all time, the reigning offensive player of the year, along with a third year signal caller that has gone 24-7 in the last two seasons, could a fullback be the most important player of the game? That’s right, James Develin has been the key ingredient for Pats’ rookie Sony Michel’s post-season success. New England has run the ball over 84% of the time when Develin and Michel share the backfield. If it wasn’t for this backfield combo, the Pats don’t control the time of possession in a landslide over Kansas City two weeks ago, and aren’t playing in Atlanta this week. Develin will be a key cog in Belichick’s game plan as the Patriots take advantage of an inside linebacking corp that weighs out as the lightest in all of football.
You would think Los Angeles would be able to rely on their menacing front seven to disrupt the timing of the Patriots offense, but think again. If the Patriots can dominate in the run game, it will allow Brady to rely on play action and short, high precision passing. This will give LA even less time to get their hands on Brady. New England, who is just 1-3 in Super Bowls when Brady is pressured eight or more times, have done a brilliant job of quarantining Brady from any pass rush this post-season. Brady was not sacked a single time in the two games, and pressured a measly three times.
Rams have not had a complete offensive game in months. Goff has not eclipsed 216 yards passing in a game where the team has had a runner surpass 100-yards or vice versa since week ten of the regular season. New England will look to build on the offensive formula that got them to this point, while defensively lending a helping hand in continuing the Rams struggling offensive trends. If they can do that, they will leave Mercedes-Benz Stadium as NFL Super Bowl Champions.
Score prediction: Patriots win 28-24
Head to Head
New England has dominated the LA Rams in their last seven outings, capturing five SU victories over that span. New England is also undefeated over Los Angles in their previous five meetings.
- New England is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
- New England is 6-2 SU & ATS in their last eight games when favored between 1-3 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England’s last 13 road games.
- Los Angeles has gone 4-3 SU & ATS as underdogs under Coach Sean McVay.
- Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games vs. New England.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles’ last 6 games vs. New England.