Grêmio vs Flamengo: Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Grêmio vs Flamengo Copa Libertadores
Grêmio vs Flamengo, Copa Libertadores, Arena do Grêmio

The match is over.
Score: 1-1.

Flamengo are on a roll but will feel disappointed they have not added to their single Copa Libertadores whilst three-time winners have the taste for victory and will firmly stand in the way of their fellow Brazilian rivals.

Our Betting Tips

There is little to choose between these two in the markets with online betting sites, however, one thing that looks likely is a low scoring first leg. Flamengo’s last four Copa Libertadores matches have all ended with under three goals in the game. Only half of Gremio’s last four cup games have ended with over two goals in them whilst they have also only managed to score more than twice once in their last five home games making a cagey affair set to ensue.

There is value to be had by backing the Rio side to take the lead heading into the break. Jorge Jesus’s side have scored in the opening 45 minutes in their last five games in all competitions making them a severe threat early doors. By contrast, Gremio have only netted in the first half in two of their last five in a all competitions so back Flamengo with popular sportsbooks to dip their toe in early and lead at the break.

Correct score markets always offer good value and a 1-1 result is a great way to go for some value in this critical Copa Libertadores semi-final first leg. That is because there is a trend as Flamengo’s last three draws in all competitions have ended by way of a 1-1 score line. The last time the pair drew, a goal apiece was the score and that was also on Gremio’s home soil. It will be a grueling 90 minutes of action but a fairly even contest that will see the visitors the happier heading home with the draw.

Statistics

Head to Head

There is a rich history of competition between Gremio and Flamengo although it is the Rio club that have gotten the better of their opponents in the last 12 months having won the last three meetings in all competitions. Flamengo recorded a 3-1 win when the pair last met in August. However, Flamengo’s last visit to Gremio in resulted in a 2-0 win for the home side in August 2018 in the Brazilian Serie A.

Stats

  • Flamengo have won the Copa Libertadores just the one time in 1981.
  • Gremio have won the competition a total of three times – most recently in 2017.
  • Flamengo defeated Internacional 3-1 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.
  • Gremio overcame Palmeiras on penalties after the pair were locked at 2-2 on aggregate after the two-legs.

Our Prediction for Grêmio vs Flamengo

Match to end in a draw

When these two meet, there is often little to choose between the two with home advantage traditionally playing a key role. To highlight this, five of the last six head to heads has seen the home side win. However, that other time a draw was played out with Gremio as hosts. Flamengo are the side to beat this season though in Brazil as they currently top the table and will be happy to leave Gremio with a draw knowing they should be able to snatch the win on home soil.

Callum Brady is an avid football fan and overly optimistic Leeds supporter #MOT! When he is not spotted visiting Elland Road, Callum spends his time following European Football, Rugby, and has recently taken interest in the NFL. A travel enthusiast, Callum is always looking for recommendations on where to travel based on football pitches to visit.

All tips by Callum Brady

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