Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers – CBB March Madness National Championship Preview
Monday 4/8 9:20 PM (ET),
U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN)
Texas Tech and Virginia both make their first ever National Championship game appearances on Monday night.
Virginia escaped with what many would consider a lucky victory, after multiple questionable calls down the stretch, much to the demise of Auburn. Yet, that doesn’t take away from their impressive run. The Cavaliers have gone 14-1 SU and 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games. Betting sites have taken notice of Virginia’s recent dominance, as they were favored by at least five points in each of those 15 games.
While Virginia struggled to put away Auburn, Texas Tech rolled Michigan State, continuing their unprecedented tournament run. The Red Raiders have rolled any team you have put in their way in the month of March. Tech has won their five tournament games by an average of 14 points, with only one game being won by single digits. Virginia owns the best defense college basketball has to offer, surrendering less than 59 ppg on the season. On Saturday night they continued their stellar play on that side of the court, holding Auburn to 38.2% shooting.
While Texas Tech has been the more dominant of the two teams, Virginia is the better team in nearly every statistical category. We’ve already discussed their strong defense, but The Cavaliers also outpace the Red Raiders in 3-pt shooting and rebounding. Texas Tech has forced the 17th most turnovers in NCAAB, yet will likely not have the same success against a Virginia team that surrenders the fewest turnovers in the nation on a per-game basis.
While both teams will be making their first title game appearances, it is Virginia who has the best chance to cut down the net.
Score prediction: Virginia wins 69-66
Over each team’s past 15 contests, Texas Tech owns a four game ATS advantage over Virginia. Yet, Virginia has bounced back from ATS loss in stellar fashion. Virginia has covered all but four of their 21 games this season following an ATS loss. Over the past 15 games, Virginia has won 14 games by more than the current 1.5 spread set for Monday’s title game.
Quickly skimming through the numbers, the UNDER seems like the go-to bet. Yet, further investigation shows that the set O/U of 117 appears just too low of a number, even for these two teams. Five of Virginia’s past seven games have hit the UNDER yet, only two have gone under 117 points. While just two of Texas Tech’s last five games to hit the UNDER have gone below 117 points.
Head to Head
Monday night will be a game of many firsts. Not only will Virginia and Texas Tech be making their first title game appearances in school history, it will also stand as the first ever head-to-head matchup between both teams.
Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Texas Tech is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech’s last 5 games.
Virginia is 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU win.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia’s last 5 games.
Virginia is 34-3 SU over their last 37 games.