Saints vs Falcons: Predictions, Odds and Betting Tips
Thursday 11/22 8:20 PM (ET),
The Falcons have lost two games in a row, and are losing ground in a tough NFC South. The Saints, on the other hand, are looking like the best the NFL has to offer at this moment, after rattling off nine consecutive victories.
The Falcons have endured a plethora of injuries on the season, specifically on the defensive end, that has kept Atlanta’s back from reaching it’s true potential. Even with a struggling defense, Atlanta was always able to lean on their explosive offense to keep them in games, that is until the past two weeks. Atlanta averaged a whopping 30.9 ppg from week 2 through week 9. Yet, through weeks 10 and 11 their points per game average has dropped to an abysmal 17.5.
While the Falcons are struggling to put the ball in the end zone, the Saints just happen to be the best team in the league at doing so. The Saints average a league topping 37.8 ppg, in part due to the absurd 48 points the team has averaged over the past three weeks. While we all know how good Drew Brees and the Saints offense is, their defense is what is beginning to turn heads. The Saints defense have surrendered a combined 21 points in the past two games, totalled five interceptions, and allowed no more than 156 yards passing in either game.
The Saints may very well be the best team in all of football. They dismantled the Eagles last week, handing Philly the worst loss ever suffered by a defending Super Bowl Champion in the history of the NFL. Simply put, Atlanta’s 28th ranked defense will not be able to contain the league’s 4th ranked offense. Look for Drew Brees to put a stamp on his MVP campaign, and a fork in Atlanta’s playoff hopes, all on Thursday night.
Score prediction: Saints win 38-20
Human nature would tell you to go with the team that is getting more than 12 points, and also rosters Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. However, that would likely be the wrong move. The Saints have won by an average of 39 points over the past two games. Over that same span, the Falcons weren’t able to score more than 19 points in either game.
I’m aware it’s hard to say take the under when your dealing with arguably the best, and hottest, offense in all of football. Atlanta has struggled mightily in putting points on the scoreboard, while the Saints defense has done wonders at keeping points off the scoreboard. The Saints will score at will against a substandard Falcons defense, they just won’t need to score enough to put this game in the over.
Head to Head
The two NFC South divisional rivals have split their last ten head-to-head matchups down the middle, with each team capturing five victories. New Orleans has won the past two meetings between the teams, including a 43-37 victory in week 3 of this season.
- Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.
- Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing New Orleans on the road.
- New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
- New Orleans is 17-8 SU in their last 25 games vs. Atlanta.
- The Total has gone over in 7 of New Orleans’ past 10 games at home.