Poland vs Italy: Predictions, Betting Tips & Odds
Sunday, October 14, 2018, 14:45
With just two points from two games, Italy’s meeting with Poland could be their most important as they try not to crash out of the UEFA Nations League at the first hurdle.
The nature of the UEFA Nations League means there’s very little margin for error. However, with just two points from their first two games, meaning they’ve already completed half of their fixtures, Italy have very little room for mistakes.
As many before him, Italy manager Roberto Mancini is struggling to find the best system to get the most out of the players at his disposal. Poland manager Jerzy Brzęczek is also struggling to find that balance for his team and how to get the most out of Robert Lewandowski.
You can expect the game to play out as a defensive one because both managers are still figuring things out. However, if the game progresses and Italy aren’t winning, then we’ll see some serious attacking changes and a glimpse into how an attacking minded La Nazionale might look.
There’s a few factors pointing towards Poland grabbing a result here. Italy look hopeless in attack and insecure at the back, meaning Poland could hold off Insigne and co. whilst grabbing a goal of their own. 1-0 Poland.
- Under 2.5 goals
A relatively safe for what is expected to be a safe game. Neither Italy nor Poland are coached by great attacking minded managers nor have excellent attacking quality.
Due to the nature of the UEFA Nations League set-up, with three teams per group, defensive play is encouraged due to the increased value of not losing with such little points on offer.
- Most goals to be scored in the second half at 6/5
As a starting point this one will be a cagey affair, then throw in the fact that if they’re drawing at half time, Italy will be desperate for a win and accelerate the game.
This a sure fire way for goals to be introduced in the second half, as Italy push forward and Poland counter attack, it’s sure to outscore what should be an apprehensive first half.
1 x 2 Odds
Head to Head
For two countries both residing in Europe, Italy and Poland haven’t found themselves facing off against each other all that much.
Neither team has a particularly convincing set of results against the other with a draw being the most frequent result with seven. However in terms of wins, Italy have five compared to Poland’s three.
Perhaps the most famous meeting between the pair is Italy’s 2-0 victory in 1982 en route to their World Cup triumph.
The two teams’ most relevant fixture is of course the rather flat 1-1 draw that took place in early September. Mancini’s Italy were particularly uninspiring and were only saved by a Jorginho penalty in the 78th minute, only their second shot on target.
- Italy have had the fewest shots on target per game in UEFA Nations League group A with Portugal having six, Poland having four and Italy having two.
- Mancini’s side have also been roughed up the most in their group, by being fouled 16.5 fouls a game, a high contrast to Portugal and Poland’s respective 12 and 11 per game.
- Italy’s only win of the Roberto Mancini era came in his first game in charge back in May with a 2-1 win over Saudi Arabia. Since then there’s been two draws and two losses.
- Italy certainly seem to fancy their chances with long shots, by having 5.5 shots from outside the box per game in the UEFA Nations League.
- Poland’s Jerzy Brzęczek is yet to experience a win as Poland manager yet, with two draws in two games since taking over in August.