PIT Steelers at NO Saints Week 16: Predictions, Odds and Betting Tips
Sunday 12/23 4:25 PM (ET),
After a three game skid, the Steelers got back to their winning ways a week ago vs. the Patriots. The Saints continue to win, but still don’t look themselves ever since their Dallas loss a few weeks ago.
No James Conner? No problem. Jaylen Samuels stepped in to replace the injured Conner a week ago, and spearhead a ground game that rushed for 161 yards vs. New England (142 of which was Samuels doing). While impressive on the ground, their offense didn’t come without their faults. Antonio Brown failed to eclipse 67 yards receiving for the third time in his past four contests. Saints defensive end Cam Jordan has some questions whether or not Ben Roethlisberger warrants a gold jacket, and maybe it has something to do with his recent play. Big Ben’s passer rating has been surpassed 88.5% just once over his last five games.
The Saints offense averaged a whopping 37.2 ppg through their first 11 games, only to deteriorate to a measly 16.7 ppg over their past three games. Drew Brees, the clear front-runner for NFL MVP just a month ago, has seen his resume fall apart over his last three games, never eclipsing 203 yards passing, while owning a 2-4 touchdown-turnover ratio over that time.
The defense of the Saints has luckily stepped up during their offensive struggles, holding opponents to just 12 ppg over their last three games. Even with that said, I have no faith in New Orleans’ ability to move the football at this time. This game should be sloppy, as both teams have struggled, but Pittsburgh’s offensive run game and Big Ben’s knack for chunk plays should likely put Pittsburgh over the top in a tightly contested game.
Score prediction: Steelers win 23-20
This line doesn’t make much sense to be honest. The Saints averaged score differential has been +4.7 over their last three contests. The Steelers have lost just two games all season by 5.5 points or more.
A Saints game hasn’t eclipsed 52.5 total points since week 11, and their total hasn’t gone over in five straight games. New Orleans’ defense hasn’t surrendered more than 17 points in six weeks. The Steelers have scored 21 points or less in three of their past four games.
Head to Head
The Saints have gone 3-1 over their last 4 matchups with Pittsburgh. The Saints are on a two game win streak vs. the Steelers, with the Saints winning their most recent matchup 35-32, all the way back in 2014.
- Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games.
- New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in all 5 of New Orleans’ past 5 games.
- New Orleans is 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games.