NO Saints at DAL Cowboys: Predictions, Odds and Betting Tips
Thursday November 29th, 8:20 pm Eastern Time
The Saints take their league-tying best record into “Jerry World” on Thursday night to face off against a Cowboys team riding a three game winning streak.
At this point, Drew Brees is almost a virtual lock for league MVP. To put things in perspective, on Thanksgiving night, Brees tossed four touchdowns for the third time in his past four games. The players on the receiving ends of those touchdowns you ask? Dan Arnold, Tommylee Lewis, Austin Carr, and Keith Kirkwood. Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram were almost all but non factors last Thursday, yet Brees still managed to put up 31 points spreading the ball around to virtual no-name receivers.
The Cowboys have figured out what works for them, and have stuck with it in the midst of their current three game-winning streak. In those three games, Zeke Elliot has averaged 131+ rushing yards, six receptions, and at least one touchdown. In that same three game span, their defense has held opposing running backs to an average of only 61.3 ypg. There is no denying Dallas’ winning formula consists of a heavy dose of Zeke, and relying on their 7th ranked defense (4th against the run). Yet, after their Thanksgiving victory over Washington, there may be no more denying that Jerry was right when it comes to Amari Cooper. Cooper has added a missing element to Dallas’ passing game since arriving in Arlington, TX. It all came to a head last Thursday night, when Cooper exploded for eight receptions, 180 yards, and two touchdowns, including a 90-yard touchdown scamper.
The Cowboys now lead the NFC East, thanks to tiebreakers, but they will likely take a step back in those rankings come Thursday. The one slight kink in Dallas’ otherwise stellar defense is the passing defense. Drew Brees will attack this secondary early and often, and if he gets players like Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram involved, they may just run Dallas out of their own building. On the other side of the ball, no singular unit has improved more over the course of the season then New Orleans defense. New Orleans has held opposing offenses to 12.7 points over the last three weeks, while picking off a total of six passes and sacking the quarterback 13 times. New Orleans will continue to take their best corner, Marcus Lattimore, and play him straight up on Dallas’ second best receiver, while using Eli Apple on Cooper, and shifting safety coverage to his side. If New Orleans can shut down Cooper, they will turn Dallas’ offense one dimensional, and hand them their sixth loss of the season.
Score prediction: Saints win 34-20
+7.5 points and home field advantage sounds like a nice get for a Dallas team that has gone 4-1 at home this season. Yet, the deeper you dig into things, the more you realize the Saints have won their last three games by a whopping average of 30.7 points. The Saints nearly double Dallas’ points per game output on the season, all while not surrendering more than 17 points since week nine.
The total has gone of 53 points in three of the Saints last four games. New Orleans ranks top in the league in points per game with 37.2. Dallas has averaged 26.7 points in three of the four games since Cooper has dawned the star on his helmet, a nearly seven point jump from their season average.
Head to Head
New Orleans has owned Dallas in head-to-head games over the past ten outings, holding an 8-2 record. The Saints came away victorious in their last bout with the ‘Boys, which dates back to 2015, with a score of 26-20.
- New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
- New Orleans is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
- New Orleans is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games when playing Dallas.
- Dallas is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
- Dallas is 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing New Orleans.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’ last 6 games.