Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots: Predictions, Odds and Betting Tips

NFL Indianapolis Colts Vs New England Patriots

NFL Indianapolis Colts Vs New England Patriots

Thursday 4 October 2018, 8:20 pm Eastern Time
Gillette Stadium

Predictions | Betting Tips | Odds | Statistics

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The Patriots got their swagger back in week 4, and Andrew Luck is looking more and more like himself as the weeks go on.


The media once again overhyped the demise of the Patriots. After 4 weeks of football, the Pats sit at 2-2, the same record they sat at a year ago, in which they eventually ended up in the Super Bowl. New England absolutely demolished the previously undefeated Miami Dolphins, to the tune of 38-7. While week 4 gave us the first sighting of Josh Gordon dawning a Pats jersey, it was actually rookie running back Sony Michele who stole the show. Michele touted the rock 25 times for 112 yards, and has the making of a bell-cow back that the Brady-led Patriots have missed for years. Michele may find yards harder to come by against Indianapolis. Since giving up 95 yards to Joe Mixon in week 1, they haven’t surrendered more than 56 yards to a team’s leading rusher.

The Colts are coming off a loss last week, a game that would have ended in a likely tie if not for a head-scratching 4th down call late in overtime. Still, Andrew Luck finally looked like the Andrew Luck we’ve come to love, tossing the ball an absurd 62 times for 464 yards and 2 touchdowns. Unfortunately Indy did lose deep-threat T.Y. Hilton to a hamstring injury in the defeat, and they will likely be without him come Thursday night. Rookie playmaker Nyheim Hines will look to pick up the slack in Hilton’s absence. Hines is coming off a 9 reception, 2-touchdown game in week 5.

Indianapolis is missing their number one playmaker, and it’s anyone’s guess how Andrew Luck’s surgically repaired shoulder will respond after attempting 62 passes only 4 days ago. For New England, not only will Josh Gordon continue to see his role expand as he blossoms into Brady’s number 1 outside receiver, they also get slot maven Julian Edelman back from suspension. New England has way too much firepower for the talent-deficient Colts to keep up with.

Score prediction: Patriots win 34-17

Betting Tips

Tom Brady should pick apart a secondary that lacks any notability behind safety Malik Hooker. In terms of Colts linebackers, Anthony Walker, and Najee Goode should struggle in coverage against James White out of the backfield.

As before his injury, the burden of winning or losing has been placed solely on the shoulders of Andrew Luck. Indy doesn’t have enough offensively to keep up with New England, nor enough defensively to stop New England. 


This will be close, but between working newly acquired/reinstated weapons into the offense (Edelman & Gordon) and the fact that they should be able to take their foot off the pedal and lean on their newly found run game, should keep the game under 52.



Head to Head

New England has owned Indianapolis over the last 10 meetings with an 8-2 record. They swept them in the last 3, with a combined score of 121-54.


  • Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in their last 11 games.
  • The total has gone under in 10 of the last 12 games for Indianapolis.
  • The total has gone under in each of the past 5 games when Indianapolis is on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 13 of New England’s previous 19 games.
  • New England is 5-0 SU over the past 5 meetings with Indianapolis.  
  • Indianapolis running back Nyheim Hines had more receiving yards in week 4 (63) than he has rushing yards over the whole season (54).
  • New England wide receiver Josh Gordon averaged 16 ypr in his debut a week ago.  

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