Alexander Gustafsson vs Anthony Smith: Predictions, Betting Tips, Odds & Statistics
Alexander Gustafsson is back on home soil as the Swede takes on Anthony Smith this weekend, in a clash between two of the UFC’s top-ranked light heavyweights.
Tale of the tape
|77 in||Height||76 in|
|205 lbs||Weight||205 lbs|
|79 in||Reach||76 in|
Predictions & Betting Tips
It’s a jostle for position amongst light heavyweight challengers at Fight Night 153 in Stockholm, as #2 ranked contender Alexander ‘The Mauler’ Gustafsson goes toe-to-toe with Anthony ‘Lionheart’ Smith. Both fighters lost to champion Jon Jones last time out, with Gustafsson beaten in his title attempt in December, and Smith in March.
That makes this contest a must-win for both corners this weekend, if they want to have a chance of challenging for gold again any time soon. Smith put up the better fight against Jones, losing a unanimous decision after deciding to continue despite being on the wrong end of an illegal knee in the fourth round.
Gustafsson meanwhile went down to a third round TKO, and can’t afford to chalk up another loss after tasting defeat in four of his last seven fights. For Smith, this is another dangerous fight in an opponent’s home country, but the Texan never shirks a challenge and is keen to make amends for a below-par performance in his legacy fight against Jones.
It’s an intriguing match-up of styles, with both men renowned for their heart. Gustafsson has a strong stand-up game, with a boxing background meaning his striking and defence is something to watch out for. The all-action Smith actually has a higher striking accuracy than his opponent, but he’s easier to hit and takes more punishment in the Octagon.
Gustafsson size and range makes him tough to handle, and the Swede’s three-inch reach advantage could be a factor. Smith is good at closing the distance though, and isn’t afraid to get hurt on his way in. Gustafsson isn’t as strong on the back foot, but if he can catch Lionheart with his heavy hands, then he could look good to win by KO, TKO or disqualification.
Having said that, Smith has only been stopped once inside the distance in his second UFC run. His first run consisted of one fight, when he suffered a first round submission loss to Antonio Braga Neto in Brazil.
1 x 2 Odds
- Alexander Gustafsson is headlining his fourth UFC event in Stockholm this weekend
- This is only Anthony Smith’s fifth fight at light heavyweight – he’s won three of four so far, against Rashad Evans, Mauricio Rua and Volkan Oezdemir
- Gustafsson comes into this fight with a 40% striking accuracy, while Smith’s is 50%
- However, Smith absorbs 4.86 significant strikes per minute, to Gustafsson’s 3.51
- Gustafsson has a 61% KO/TKO ratio, with 17% of his wins coming by way of submission
- Smith has won 58% of his fights by KO or TKO, while 35% have come via submission