AFL 2023 Round 22 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The 2023 AFL season just keeps getting tighter. Two of the teams in the bottom half of the top eight lost last week while the four teams sitting just outside it all won, and the logjam present in that part of the ladder just keeps getting tighter. Just a game separates sixth from 12th, while further up the ladder second through to fourth are now tied on points. There are a plethora of huge games this weekend; it kicks off with the Magpies vs the Cats, before the Lions take on the Crows and the Demons take on the Blues the next day. On Sunday, the Saints and the Tigers collide in another big game, before the round concludes with a blockbuster between the Power and the Giants. Check out the previews for all nine games below.

Round 22 is a big one, and it could hardly start in more enticing fashion. The Magpies and the Cats will take centre stage in front of what will no doubt be a huge crowd on Friday night, and a high-quality, high-intensity, and quite possibly very close game looks to be in order. The Magpies have, for all intents and purposes, sewn up top spot with a two-game margin on second and just three to play, but having dropped two games in succession they will be desperate to get back on the winners’ list. Their latest defeat came at the hands of a plucky young Hawthorn team last weekend, and making matters even worse for a Magpies team which was thoroughly outplayed by the 16th team on the ladder was the fact that their golden boy, Nick Daicos, picked up an injury which will have him out until the finals. The Cats, meanwhile, bounced back from their own two-game losing streak last week, and didn’t they need to. That win in an enthralling game against the Power kept them in touch with the top eight; they’re now sitting in ninth, and while they’re just a game clear of 13th they’re also only a game behind fifth. A win here will almost certainly see them jump into the top eight, and if they end up staying there the reigning Premiers will no doubt see them as the most dangerous team outside the top four. Despite their topsy turvy season the Cats’ best remains as good as anyone, and though they are hampered by the absence of a couple of key players, they can cause an upset in a thrilling first game of the weekend.

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: J.Howe, D.Moore - C, I.Quaynor HB: B.Maynard, B. Frampton, S.Pendlebury C: S.Sidebottom, P.Lipinski, J.Daicos HF: B.Hill, B.Mihocek, A. Johnson F: J.Elliott, D.McStay, B.McCreery FOLL: D.Cameron, J.De Goey, J.Crisp I/C: T.Mitchell, J.Noble, T.Adams, O. Markov

Geelong Cats: B: J.Kolodjashnij, E.Ratugolea, M. O’Connor HB: Z.Guthrie, S.De Koning, T.Stewart C: M.Duncan, T.Bruhn, I.Smith HF: G.Miers, T. Hawkins, T.Stengle F: G.Rohan, J.Cameron, B.Close FOLL: R.Stanley, P.Dangerfield - C, T.Atkins I/C: J.Bowes, O. Henry, M.Holmes, Z.Tuohy

The Kangaroos’ losing streak is getting alarmingly long, having extended out to 18 on the back of their loss to the Demons last week. Not that they’ll be particularly concerned at this point. Alastair Clarkson mentioned as much in the pre-game last weekend in his first game back from an extended leave of absence, with the small gains and development of any sort of structure of more concern to the coach. They certainly showed that early, with a fantastic first quarter in which they thoroughly outplayed the Dees and looked like a genuinely good side. That unsurprisingly fell away, but that was no surprise and also not of any great concern to the Roos given that, if the Eagles manage to somehow win another game, prospective number one pick Harley Reid will be on the table. West Coast nearly did exactly that last weekend in an incredible comeback against the Bombers, who escaped with a one-point victory in a game which inspired very little confidence in their ability to work their way back into the top eight. They’re still a game outside it, and have a couple of tough ones to finish the season, so this is an absolute must-win to give them any chance going into Round 23. But as disappointing as they were last year, the Bombers have still shown good signs throughout much of this year, and should be able to earn the win they need against the Roos.

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A.Corr, B.McKay, J.Archer HB: J.Goater, T.Thomas, L.McDonald C: E.Ford, L.Davies-Uniacke, B.Scott HF: C.Taylor, D.Tucker, J.Stephenson F: W.Phillips, N.Larkey, P.Curtis FOLL: T.Xerri, H.Sheezel, J.Simpkin - C I/C: T.Goldstein, K.Turner, J.Ziebell, B. Cunnington

Essendon Bombers: B: N.Hind, B.Zerk-Thatcher, J.Kelly HB: M.Redman, J.Laverde, A.McGrath C: S.Durham, J.Caldwell, N.Martin HF: E.Tsatas, P.Wright, N.Cox F: A.Perkins, K.Langford, B.Hobbs FOLL: A.Phillips, D.Parish, Z.Merrett - C I/C: D.Heppell, N.Bryan, T. Wanganeen, W. Setterfield

The Swans and the Suns have spent much of the season on the outside of the top eight looking in, and while it was Gold Coast who have been closer throughout the year it’s Sydney who are making the late charge. Last year’s Grand Finalists have found form when it matters most, picking up four consecutive victories including two by two points, as well as last week’s by just 11 over the Giants. That streak has seen them come from the clouds to put themselves amongst the glut of teams trying to sneak into the final spots in the eight, and though they’re still in tenth they’re only a game behind the Blues in fifth. The Suns, meanwhile, appear destined for yet another almost but not quite season. They fought back from a dreadful start against the Crows last week but that start proved costly, and the loss – their 11th of the season – now has them two games and percentage out of the top eight with three to go. That will be nearly impossible to come back from. With their season all but gone and that of the Swans on the line, expect the home team to be too strong.

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: B: T.McCartin, D. Rampe, N.Blakey HB: H.Cunningham, O.Florent, J.Lloyd C: Ch.Warner, E.Gulden, B.Campbell HF: S.Wicks, L.McDonald, I.Heeney F: W.Hayward, J.Amartey, T.Papley FOLL: T.Hickey, C.Mills, L.Parker - C I/C: R.Fox, J.Rowbottom, R.Clarke, H.McLean

Gold Coast Suns: B: C.Ballard, S.Collins, M.Andrew HB: B.Ellis, R.Atkins, S.Lemmens C: B. Long, S.Flanders, B.Ainsworth HF: B.Humphrey, J.Lukosius, D.Swallow F: N.Holman, B.King, L.Casboult FOLL: J.Witts - C, M.Rowell, N.Anderson I/C: J.Farrar, T. Miller, D.Macpherson, M.Rosas

• The Lions haven’t lost a game at home all year, while the Crows haven’t lost by more than 40 points in nearly three months.
• The Saints haven’t beaten a team which isn’t in the bottom three in over two months.
• The Saints haven’t beaten a team which isn’t in the bottom three in over two months.

Multi of the Week

This is a big one. Both the Lions and the Crows have plenty to play for – the Lions a potential home Qualifying Final and the Crows a spot in the top eight – and this game will have a significant say in whether they get what they want, or fall just short. The Lions just barely got the win they so badly needed last week, beating the Dockers by three points, and with the Power losing their fourth in a row Brisbane squared their win/loss record with both Port Adelaide and Melbourne. The Demons’ superior percentage has them currently sitting in second, but it’s a marginal gap back to Brisbane which could easily be closed this weekend. But the Crows certainly won’t go down easily. After looking as though their season had all but finished they’ve recorded back to back wins against first the Power then last week the Suns, and all of a sudden are back within a game of eighth. They’re also just a game behind sixth, and with a superior percentage to all those three teams on 44 points they could potentially jump inside the eight this weekend. They’ve proven that their best is very good this season, but unfortunately they’ve struggled to show it on the road as often as they have at home. Expect them to come out all guns blazing, but the Lions are 10-0 at home this weekend and should make it 11 from 11 on Saturday afternoon.

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: B: B.Starcevich, H.Andrews, J.Payne HB: C.McKenna, R.Lester, D.Wilmot C: H.McCluggage, J.Dunkley, D.Zorko HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, L.McCarthy F: C.Rayner, J.Daniher, J.Gunston FOLL: O. McInerney, L.Neale - C, J.Berry I/C: C.Ah Chee, J.Prior, K. Coleman, Z.Bailey

Adelaide Crows: B: B.Smith, J.Borlase, M.Keane HB: M.Michalanney, J.Worrell, W.Milera C: R. Sloane, J.Dawson - C, M.Hinge HF: B.Keays, D.Fogarty, S.McAdam F: J.Rachele, T.Walker, I. Rankine FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, M.Crouch I/C: R.Thilthorpe, J.Soligo, L.Murphy, L.Nankervis

In a round filled to the brim with big games this might be the most anticipated of them all. The Blues and the Demons are the two most in-form teams in the league, at least in terms of their current win streaks, the two having won seven and five in a row respectively. The Demons are, for all intents and purposes, the better team and have virtually joined the Magpies as Premiership favourites, but nobody is playing better footy than the Blues right now. Those seven wins in a row have included defeats of the Magpies and the Power, and last week, despite a poor start, they ran all over the Saints in the second half to take their record to 11-8. The Demons also had a poor start, theirs against the Kangaroos, but they flexed their muscles after quarter time to record a 31-point win. Unfortunately they suffered a significant casualty with Harrison Petty suffering a foot injury which will keep him out for at least a few weeks. The Blues have been tough to score against since beginning this win streak, and the Demons weaknesses in the forward line – something which has been significantly hampered by injury – could well be exposed in this game. The midfield battle will be something to behold, particularly if Clayton Oliver returns, and could well determine who gets up. It should be a cracker of a game, but while the Dees are my pick for the Premiership, it’s so hard to go against the Blues right now. They can throw the Demons’ top two aspirations into disarray with a tight win in front of a big crowd.

Predicted Squads

Carlton Blues: B: B.Kemp, J.Weitering, N.Newman HB: A.Cincotta, C.Marchbank, A.Saad C: S.Docherty, P.Cripps - C, O.Hollands HF: J.Martin, C.Curnow, Z.Fisher F: J.Motlop, M.Pittonet, M.Owies FOLL: T.De Koning, G.Hewett, S. Walsh I/C: D.Cuningham, P. Dow, B.Acres, M.Cottrell

Melbourne Demons: B: J.Bowey, S.May, T.Rivers HB: C.Salem, J.Lever, J.McVee C: L. Hunter, J.Viney, E.Langdon HF: A.Brayshaw, J.Melksham, A. Neal-Bullen F: K.Pickett, J.van Rooyen, K.Chandler FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Petracca, C. Oliver I/C: J.Harmes, J.Smith, T.Sparrow, B. Grundy

Have the Eagles found some form!? After finally winning their second game of the season a fortnight ago against the Kangaroos, they went agonisingly close to doing it again last week, coming from behind against the Bombers to take the lead with just over a minute to go. Unfortunately they almost immediately gave up a goal and went down by a point, but with Harley Reid on the line they probably won’t be too concerned. But whether they want to win another game or not, they’ll be desperate to avoid the type of big loss which has been so frequent for them this season against their cross-town rivals. The Dockers haven’t exactly been the type of team to inflict heavy defeats on opposition teams this year, and after a loss last weekend their finals hopes are officially shot, but in fairness to them over the past two weeks they have beaten the Cats in Geelong and then got to within three points of the Lions, so their form isn’t too bad. This probably won’t be a Showdown for the ages, but any clash between these two always has an added layer of spice. Hopefully the Eagles can be competitive, but the Dockers should be too strong.

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles: B: A.Witherden, J.McGovern - C, L.Duggan HB: S. Hurn, E.Yeo, T.Cole C: A.Gaff, T.Kelly, C.Chesser HF: J.Cripps, J.Darling, L.Edwards F: N.Long, O.Allen, R.Maric FOLL: C. Jamieson, L. Shuey, E.Hewett I/C: J.Hunt, J.Petruccelle, J.Rotham, B. Hough

Fremantle Dockers: B: B.Cox, A.Pearce - C, C.Wagner HB: J.Clark, L.Ryan, H.Young C: L.Henry, N.Erasmus, J.O’Meara HF: S.Switkowski, J.Treacy, L.Schultz F: M.Frederick, J.Amiss, M.Walters FOLL: L.Jackson, C.Serong, A.Brayshaw I/C: M. Johnson, J.Aish, S.Sturt, J.Corbett

This could be a sneaky exciting game, depending on which version of the Hawks shows up. If it’s the one which systematically dismantled the Magpies last weekend, then the Bulldogs will need to be at their best to avoid what would be a disastrous loss. Hawthorn have shown plenty at different points of this season, but last week was their best performance of the year. This young team has long been destined to finish 16th in 2023, but moving forward there is so much reason to be optimistic about what Sam Mitchell can do with this group, and last weekend was a perfect example. At their best their football is as exciting to watch as the best teams in the league – a little bit like the Bulldogs. That best was very much on show against a lacklustre Tigers team in the first quarter last weekend, a quarter in which the Doggies booted nine goals to eventually end the game as soon as it had started. That was a pivotal victory for the Bulldogs, taking their record to 11-9. But while they’re in sixth place for now, they’re also only a game clear of the Bombers in 12th, so they certainly can’t afford to rest on their laurels. They’ll need to be on guard against the Hawks, but with a lot more on the line the Bulldogs should be able to record their second straight victory.

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: B: J.Blanck, J.Sicily - C, J.Weddle HB: J. Impey, B.Hardwick, F.Maginness C: W.Day, D.Moore, K. Amon HF: C.Wingard, M.Lewis, B.Ryan F: L.Breust, J.Koschitzke, J.Worpel FOLL: N.Reeves, J.Newcombe, J.Ward I/C: H.Morrison, J.Scrimshaw, C.Macdonald, C.Nash

Western Bulldogs: B: J.Johannisen, L.Jones, T.Duryea HB: B.Dale, A. Keath, E.Richards C: C.Daniel, M.Bontempelli - C, B.Williams HF: C.Weightman, A.Naughton, B.Smith F: R.Lobb, J.Ugle-Hagan, R.West FOLL: T.English, A.Treloar, T.Liberatore I/C: J.Macrae, L.Vandermeer, R. Gardner, T. McLean

It’s looking increasingly likely that these two teams’ respective seasons are heading for very disappointing ends. In fairness to the Saints, they’re still in seventh place, but aside from a strong win against the Hawks a fortnight ago their form has not been worthy of a finals spot for a long time, and with a really tough last three weeks to come they may well find themselves tumbling out of the eight on the eve of the finals having spent nearly the entire season inside it. This will be the last game of the home and away season which they’ll enter as favourites – and even then it’s only just – so they’d want to make the most of it. The Tigers have been fighting hard to stay in touch with the eight for much of the year, but last Friday night’s first quarter against the Bulldogs with their season on the line was about as woeful as one could imagine. Presumably Dustin Martin comes back into the team this weekend which should help, but after last week’s effort it’s hard to have a whole lot of confidence in the Tigers. They’re now a game and a half outside the eight and will need to win their last three and hope a few other games go their way to play finals, so if they lose this one their papers are officially stamped. It’s not an easy one to pick, but despite the Tigers’ poor effort last week their best has been better than the Saints over the past couple of months, and in a tight game they can keep their slim finals hopes alive.

Predicted Squads

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, C.Wilkie, J.Webster HB: H. Clark, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: R.Byrnes, M.Owens, M.Wood HF: J.Higgins, B.Hill, M.Phillipou F: M.King, A.Caminiti, C.Sharman FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Steele - C, B.Crouch I/C: T. Membrey, M.Windhager, J.Gresham, D.Butler

Richmond Tigers: B: N.Balta, D.Grimes - C, T.Young HB: N.Balta, D.Grimes - C, T.Young C: K.McIntosh, T.Taranto, J.Ross HF: M.Pickett, L.Baker, S.Bolton F: J.Bauer, J.Riewoldt, D. Martin FOLL: T.Nankervis, D.Prestia, J.Graham I/C: J.Short, T. Cotchin, I.Soldo, M.Coulthard

A month ago, the prospect of the Power losing four games in a row was virtually unfathomable. They were in the midst of a then 13-game winning streak and had a top two spot well and truly in their grasp. A loss to the rampaging Blues when the Power were missing a number of players was no disaster, and the next week, when they played one of the games of the season against the Magpies only to go down by two points, wasn’t either. Once they lost the Showdown by eight goals the following week, however, the alarm bells started to ring, and a fourth successive loss, this one to the Cats in Geelong, last week has sent them tumbling to fourth and in desperate need of a win. In fairness it’s been a really tough run of games, but there are plenty of those in the league at the moment and this weekend is no exception. On their home turf, they should be too good for the Giants, but sitting in eighth and having only last week had a seven-game winning streak end, GWS aren’t exactly an easy team to beat at the moment. But for all of the Giants’ great form and the Power’s struggles, Port is still a legitimate Premiership contender and in desperate need of a win. On their home turf they’ve been so hard to beat all year, and they can finally arrest their losing skid with a solid win on Sunday evening.

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide Power: B: D.Williams, A. Aliir, D.Houston HB: K.Farrell, T.Jonas - C, R.Burton C: M.Bergman, W.Drew, X.Duursma HF: Z.Butters, T.Marshall, J.McEntee F: Z.Butters, T.Marshall, J.McEntee FOLL: D.Visentini, O.Wines, C.Rozee I/C: M. Bergman, J.Finlayson, J.Horne-Francis, W.Rioli

GWS Giants: B: J.Buckley, S.Taylor, N.Haynes HB: L.Ash, H.Himmelberg, L.Whitfield C: J.Kelly, T.Green, F.Callaghan HF: A. Cadman, J.Riccardi, T.Bedford F: C.Brown, J.Hogan, T.Greene - C FOLL: K.Briggs, C.Ward, S.Coniglio I/C: I. Cumming, L.Keeffe, C.Idun, H.Perryman

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