AFL 2023 Round 18 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Though there are only a handful of weeks left to go in the 2023 AFL home and away season, there is still a whole lot left to be decided. The Bombers in fifth are separated by just two and a half games from the Swans in 15th, and as a result there are set to be plenty of proverbial eight-point games in the run home – including plenty this weekend. It starts with a Swans vs Bulldogs clash on Thursday before the Demons take on the Lions in a huge Friday night game, while Saturday will see the Blues take on the white hot Power and the Cats take on the Bombers. Take a look at our match previews for each and every game below.

If the Swans season isn’t over after last week’s tight loss to the Tigers, then it certainly will be with another defeat this Thursday night. Their 13-point loss to Richmond sent them tumbling to 15th place on the AFL ladder and essentially ended their season in the eyes of most, though with the second best percentage in the bottom eight and just two games separating them from eighth spot, it’s perhaps not as cut and dry as many would have you believe. A win this week could theoretically take them up to 11th, and would incidentally have them just a game behind the team they play this week, the Bulldogs, who are themselves in the top four hunt. But while the Dogs are only a game out of the top four they’re also only a game away from falling outside the top eight, such is the tightness of this year’s competition, and the difference between a win or loss this Thursday is enormous in the context of both their season and those of many around them. They were very competitive against the Magpies last weekend, jumping out of the blocks before ultimately going down by two goals, and another performance like that would hold them in good stead against Sydney. The Swans have certainly played a better brand of footy over the last three weeks, despite that period yielding just a solitary win (and a draw against the Cats), but the Bulldogs look like value here in what should be a close game to open up Round 18.

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: B: H.Cunningham, L.Melican, D.Rampe HB: R. Fox, O.Florent, N.Blakey C: E.Gulden, J.Rowbottom, B.Campbell HF: H.McLean, L.McDonald, W.Hayward F: I.Heeney, L.Franklin, T.Papley FOLL: T.Hickey, L.Parker - C, C.Mills I/C: T.McCartin, A.Sheldrick, S. Wicks, J.McInerney

Western Bulldogs: B: T.Duryea, R.Gardner, J.O’Donnell HB: B.Dale, A.Keath, E.Richards C: L.Vandermeer, M.Bontempelli - C, B.Williams HF: J.Macrae, A.Naughton, A.Treloar F: C.Weightman, J.Ugle-Hagan, R.Lobb FOLL: T.English, C.Daniel, T.Liberatore I/C: C.Poulter, L.McNeil, R.West, B.Smith

Round 18 continues on Friday night with what looms as the match of the round and one of the games of the season, and a potential preview of something to come much later in the year. The Demons and the Lions sit fourth and third respectively, but while the latter is comfortably locked in their spot with two games separating them from the teams on either side of them, the Dees spot in the top four is far less assured. There are no less than three teams within a game of them, and if they lose this one they could theoretically end the round just a game clear inside the top eight. But while they haven’t played as consistently well as the Lions have this year, they have demonstrated what they’re capable of at certain points, not least on King’s Birthday when they beat the Magpies. The Lions, meanwhile, have a disastrous record at the MCG stretching back a number of years, and the last time they visited the home of football they were beaten relatively comfortably by the Hawks. Last time they played here was last year’s Semi Final, which the Lions won by 13 points, but that was an extremely rare victory at this venue for them. With their chances of moving into the top two reasonably slim given the form of the two sides above them, and their top four spot seemingly relatively secure for the time being, the Lions won’t be resting on their laurels but it is easy to see the Dees coming out with a little more vigour. On their home turf, Melbourne can earn a pivotal victory in a high-quality Friday night matchup.

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Demons: B: J.Bowey, S.May, H.Petty HB: C.Salem, J.Lever, A.Brayshaw C: J.Jordon, J.Viney, E.Langdon HF: K.Pickett, J.Melksham, T.Sparrow F: A.Neal-Bullen, B.Brown, C.Spargo FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Petracca, T.Rivers I/C: B.Grundy, L.Hunter, T.Woewodin, J.McVee

Brisbane Lions: B: B.Starcevich, H.Andrews - C, J.Payne HB: C.McKenna, R.Lester, K.Coleman C: H.McCluggage, Z.Bailey, J.Fletcher HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, D.Robertson F: D.Zorko, J.Daniher, C.Rayner FOLL: O.McInerney, L.Neale, W.Ashcroft I/C: J.Madden, J.Lyons, J.Gunston, D.Wilmot

The Pies just keep on rolling, last week notching up their 14th win of the season to maintain their hold on top spot. They certainly weren’t at their best, particularly early, but they responded to overrun their opposition like it feels like they do every week, eking out a hard-fought 12-point win over the Bulldogs. The weekend didn’t go quite so well for the Dockers. In a quintessential eight-point game against the Blues, they failed to give much of a whimper, conceding a massive lead in the first half from which they never recovered. It continued a hugely disappointing season for Justin Longmuir’s men, who now find themselves at 7-9 and in 14th place. Suboptimal as that may be, however, they are still just a game and a half out of the top eight, and mathematically still have a reasonable chance of playing finals. Unfortunately for them, football isn’t played in a classroom. Of greater concern than their record is the way they’ve played in recent weeks, and though they’ve had periods throughout the year in which they’ve played good footy, the way they’re travelling at the moment they won’t get particularly close to the Magpies.

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: J.Howe, D.Moore - C, I.Quaynor HB: N.Daicos, N.Murphy, J.Noble C: W.Hoskin-Elliott, S.Pendlebury, J.Daicos HF: B.Hill, B.Frampton, P.Lipinski F: J.Elliott, D.Cameron, T.Adams FOLL: M.Cox, J.De Goey, J.Crisp I/C: T.Mitchell, B.McCreery, O.Markov, A.Johnson

Fremantle Dockers: B: B.Cox, A.Pearce - C, H.Young HB: B.Walker, L.Ryan, J.Aish C: L.Henry, C.Serong, J.Clark HF: M.Frederick, L.Jackson, L.Schultz F: J.Treacy, J.Amiss, M.Walters FOLL: S.Darcy, A.Brayshaw, M.Johnson I/C: J.O’Meara, E.Hughes, N.Erasmus, S.Switkowski

• Their close loss to the Saints a couple of weeks ago aside, the Eagles have lost every game since Round 2 by 40 points or more.
• The Hawks and the Kangaroos both rank ahead of only the woeful Eagles in terms of points scored this season.
• Prior to last year’s semi-final, the Dees had won four in a row against the Lions at the MCG by an average of 41 points.

Multi of the Week

Stewart Dew’s rein as the coach of the Suns is officially over, with the AFL’s second newest club sacking their long-time leader during the week after a poor run of form which seems set to culminate in yet another missed finals series. The straw that broke the camel’s back was a 33-point loss to the Power – hardly a disaster, but a loss which followed a 78-point defeat at the hands of the Pies a week prior and a 59-point loss to the Blues a fortnight before that. Despite those performances though, they too are still in with a theoretical chance to play finals, and if they manage to secure a win this weekend they’ll potentially move to within half a game of the top eight. One of the team’s whose position in the top eight those below are eyeing off is the Saints, whose 21-point loss to the Demons last week was their third in four weeks. Their spot in the eight is now hanging by a thread, and realistically they haven’t looked they’re in the top eight teams in the league since the early stages of the year. A win here, however, and they’ll potentially move to level on points with fourth spot – safe to say it’s a close ladder! It’s been a tumultuous week for the Suns, but often we see teams come out with a renewed vigour in their first couple of weeks under a new coach. The Suns odds look a little short to offer much value here, but they’re still my tip to win the game.

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Suns: B: C.Ballard, S.Collins, M.Andrew HB: L.Weller, D.Macpherson, W.Powell C: B.Ellis, B.Humphrey, B.Fiorini HF: T.Miller, N.Holman, J.Lukosius F: B.Ainsworth, B.King, L.Casboult FOLL: J.Witts - C, M.Rowell, N.Anderson I/C: R.Atkins, S.Flanders, H.Oea, B. Long

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, D.Howard, C.Wilkie HB: J.Webster, M.Windhager, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: M.Wood, J.Steele - C, H. Clark HF: D.Butler, M.Phillipou, M.Owens F: A.Caminiti, C. Sharman, J.Gresham FOLL: R.Marshall, B.Crouch, J.Sinclair I/C: Z.Jones, L.Stocker, J.Billings, J. Higgins

Well well well. It looks like the real Carlton have at long last stood up, just when most people in the AFL world had officially given up hope. After eight losses in nine games their season appeared over, but a ten-goal win over the Suns was subsequently followed up by another against the Hawks, before they last week knocked off the Dockers by 53 points. Suddenly, this talented outfit is firing on all cylinders, and have moved to within a game of the top eight. It’s hard to trust them given how poorly they played for over two months, but if they can manage to become the first team since Round 3 to knock off the Power it will become a little bit easier. Port won their 13th game in a row last weekend, taking down the Suns in a game in which they flexed their muscle when they needed to without doing too much more. They are a mighty good team and are legitimately challenging Collingwood as the best in the league, and fully deserve to be one of the Premiership favourites. They have, however, been a little less dominant in Melbourne than they have elsewhere, which could open the door of opportunity up for the Blues. In their last game here they beat the Bombers with a brilliant Dan Houston kick after the siren, while before that they knocked off the Dogs by 22, the Tigers by just ten, and the Saints by seven. It’s picking at straws to criticise them for that – those are all finals contenders who they beat on the road, but there’s no doubt that their aura of inexorability which is so evident at Adelaide Oval is a little less prevalent on the road. They should be favourites here, but don’t be too surprised to see the Blues go close to causing an upset.

Predicted Squads

Carlton Blues: B: B.Kemp, J.Weitering, N.Newman HB: J.Boyd, A. Cincotta, A.Saad C: B.Acres, P.Cripps - C, S.Walsh HF: L.Fogarty, C.Curnow, M.Owies F: D.Cuningham, H.McKay, J.Martin FOLL: Le.Young, A.Cerra, S.Docherty I/C: E. Curnow, G. Hewett, J.Silvagni, M Cottrell

Port Adelaide Power: B: R.Burton, T. Jonas, D.Houston HB: K.Farrell, A.Aliir, D.Williams C: M.Bergman, J.Horne-Francis, W.Drew HF: Z.Butters, T.Marshall, T.Boak F: D.Byrne-Jones, C.Dixon, S.Powell-Pepper FOLL: S.Hayes, O.Wines - C, C.Rozee I/C: J.McEntee, J.Finlayson, J.Rioli, L.Jones

An intriguing Saturday night of AFL action is headlined by an eighth vs fifth clash between the Cats and the Bombers down at GMHBA Stadium. But with the ladder so tight, those positions aren’t necessarily particularly reflective of a team’s ability, and the Cats will go in as relatively comfortable favourites despite finding themselves three spots behind the Bombers. That is perhaps being harsh on the Dons; they’ve established themselves as a legitimately good team and over the past two weeks have forced the Power to kick a goal after the siren to beat them, and then knocked off the Crows relatively comfortably. They have been playing good footy under new coach Brad Scott for much of the year, and though there are plenty of teams nipping at their heels looking to take their spot, they would be a worthy finalist in 2023. The Cats, however, are warming up, and particularly down in Geelong will take a whole lot of beating. They did what they needed to last week against the Roos a week after a disappointing draw against the Swans, but the week prior to that they knocked off the Demons at GMHBA. The experienced reigning Premiers are not exactly where they need to be, but they know what they need to do when they need to do it, and in an eight-point game like this one they will be very keen to notch up another W. The Bombers are competitive virtually every week and certainly won’t go down without a fight, but the Cats should be able to get the job done. 

Predicted Squads

Geelong Cats: B: J.Bowes, S.De Koning, Z.Guthrie HB: J.Henry, E.Ratugolea, T.Stewart C: M.O’Connor, Z.Tuohy, M. Holmes HF: G. Rohan, J. Cameron, T.Stengle F: G.Miers, T.Hawkins, B.Close FOLL: R.Stanley, P.Dangerfield - C, T.Atkins I/C: O.Henry, M.Blicavs, T.Bruhn, M.Duncan

Essendon Bombers: B: A.McGrath, B.Zerk-Thatcher, J.Laverde HB: M.Redman, J.Ridley, K.Langford C: N.Martin, Z.Merrett - C, D.Heppell HF: S.Durham, S.Weideman, J.Caldwell F: M.Guelfi, P.Wright, J.Stringer FOLL: A.Phillips, D.Parish, A.Perkins I/C: B.Hobbs, W.Snelling, J.Kelly, J.Menzie

Two more of the plethora of teams fighting for the bottom spots in the top eight will also go head to head a thousand kilometres to the west on Saturday, with the Crows welcoming the Giants to Adelaide Oval for a huge game. A few weeks ago the Crows were looking like probable finalists and potentially even top four challengers while the Giants season appeared over, but with Adelaide going down to Essendon last weekend and GWS winning their fourth game in a row, they’re now side by side just outside of the top eight. That loss for Adelaide was yet another example of their struggles outside of Adelaide, at least relative to at home, and while they’ll be eager to exorcise those demons at some point they’ll be very pleased to head back across the border this weekend. But as good as they’ve been at home, they’ll need to play really well to beat the Giants in their current form. New coach Adam Kingsley has them playing some really good footy, and though they certainly weren’t at their best against the Hawks last week they still did enough to win. They’re building something in Greater Western Sydney, but as the 18% difference in percentage between these sides despite their equal records would suggest, they’re still a little way behind the Crows. Adelaide have been nearly impossible to beat at home this year, and that will continue this Saturday night.

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: B: B.Smith, N.Murray, M.Michalanney HB: M.Hinge, J.Worrell, W.Milera C: N.McHenry, J.Dawson - C, R.Sloane HF: J.Rachele, D.Fogarty, R.Thilthorpe F: L.Murphy, T.Walker, I.Rankine FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, B.Keays I/C: J.Soligo, L.Pedlar, C.Jones, L.Sholl

GWS Giants: B: J.Buckley, S.Taylor, I.Cumming HB: L.Ash, H.Himmelberg, L.Whitfield C: J.Kelly, H.Perryman, F.Callaghan HF: D.Lloyd, J.Riccardi, T.Bedford F: X.O’Halloran, J.Hogan, T.Greene - C FOLL: K.Briggs, T.Green, S.Coniglio I/C: K.Briggs, T.Green, S.Coniglio

The Kangaroos, Hawks and particularly the Eagles are comfortably the worst three sides in the league this year, and unfortunately for lovers of Sunday football they’ll make up three of the four teams set to take to the field this Sunday. It kicks off with a clash between the Roos and the Hawks which certainly won’t be breaking any records in terms of its quality, but which does hold some intrigue in the sense that it offers a rare opportunity for each of these teams to collect a win. The Kangaroos, in particular, will be desperate to snare the four points, having lost 14 on the trot after winning their opening two games of the season. They’ve gone close against better sides than the Hawks, including a couple of times in recent weeks, but nonetheless they’ll head into this game as the underdog. Hawthorn is the best of the three aforementioned bottom feeders, and have enjoyed a couple of impressive victories throughout the course of the season. Unfortunately, they’ve been relatively few and far between and have been accompanied by a host of hefty defeats. Last week, at least, they showed that there is some reason for Hawks fans to be optimistic, dominating the clearance and contested ball against a reasonably good side in the Giants only to go down by 13 points. They’re further along in their development than the Roos and probably have a better young list, too, and can notch up their fifth win of the season this Sunday.

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A.Corr, J. Ziebell, B.McKay HB: T.Thomas, H.Sheezel, L.McDonald C: E.Ford, L.Davies-Uniacke, B.Scott HF: C.Zurhaar, D.Tucker, J.Stephenson F: C.Harvey, N.Larkey, P.Curtis FOLL: T.Xerri, L. Shiels, G.Wardlaw I/C: C.Coleman-Jones, H.Greenwood, La.Young, F.Perez

Hawthorn Hawks: B: C. Jiath, J.Blanck, J.Weddle HB: B.Hardwick, D.Grainger-Barras, J.Scrimshaw C: K.Amon, J.Newcombe, C.Nash HF: J.Worpel, C.Wingard, J.Ward F: T.Brockman, M.Lewis, C.Macdonald FOLL: N.Reeves, W.Day, D.Moore - C I/C: S.Mitchell, F.Maginness, J.Impey, F.Greene

The Tigers are this week’s lucky recipient of a matchup with the Eagles, heading west to take on the worst side in recent memory in the final game of Round 18. West Coast, incidentally, slightly outperformed the expectations of bookmakers last week, but testament to just how bad that are that still meant an 81-point loss for them. That took their record to 1-15, and their percentage to 48.2%. Aside from a couple of weeks ago when they nearly beat the Saints, they’re providing a handy percentage boost to whoever plays them virtually every week, though with the Tigers having a draw to their name their percentage is a little less relevant than it is for other teams. Still, with the Blues and Cats also having a draw and potentially set to finish in a similar spot to the Tigers, there’s certainly no harm in recording a big win for Richmond. Of course, it’s not quite as easy as simply turning up and winning by 100 points, but to be honest it’s not all that far off. The Tigers were solid last week in overcoming a slow start to beat the Swans, and though they sit in 12th place, with the Eagles this week and Hawks next there’s every chance that they’ll be in the eight – or at least right on the edge of it – within the fortnight. As caretaker coach Andrew McQualter continues to press his case to take on the job full-time next year, they can conclude Round 18 with a big win on the road.

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles: B: S. Hurn, T.Barrass - C, A.Witherden HB: L.Duggan, J.McGovern, J.Hunt C: A.Gaff, D.Sheed, L. Shuey HF: N.Long, J.Darling, C.Chesser F: J.Petruccelle, O.Allen, J.Cripps FOLL: B.Williams, T.Kelly, E.Hewett I/C: R.Ginbey, B. Hough, R. Bazzo, R.Maric

Richmond Tigers: B: N.Balta, D.Grimes - C, T.Young HB: D.Rioli, N.Vlastuin, N.Broad C: K.McIntosh, T.Taranto, M.Pickett HF: D.Prestia, L.Baker, J.Graham F: R. Mansell, J.Riewoldt, D.Martin FOLL: S. Ryan, T.Cotchin, S.Bolton I/C: S.Banks, J.Hopper, B.Miller, M.Rioli

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